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Gasoline versus Crude Oil prices

Question: Why is it that Gasoline Prices seem to rise so quickly, but fall so slowly?

Answer: When you see the price of Crude Oil sell for $46, that barrel of Oil won't make it to your car as gasoline for as long as 3-6 months. Recall in May, the price of oil pulled back into the hi $30s -- thats why gas dropped in price by more than a few cents in July.

There's actually a good reason for the phenomena of retail gasoline prices rising quickly, but falling so much more gradually. Its strictly a function of competition in the marketplace.

When crude prices rise, all the gas stations raise their prices accordingly -- they have no choice, otherwise they would be losing money on each sale. They all pay (more or less) the same prices for refined gas, and make a relatively small mark up on the fuel they sell. As wholesale prices rise, they pass along the increase.

When the price of Crude eases, however, what forces gasoline prices back down is simply competition. One station lowers prices a few cents, and pulls in more traffic; That forces others to do the same -- until prices gradually work their way back down to the earlier prices (assuming crude returns to its prior price). While the retailers may make a greater profit for a few days, competition eventually forces them back to their original margins.

You may be surprised to learn that gas stations make the bulk of their profits on the quickee mart / convenience store, or on automobile repairs -- and not on fuel. They are greatly incentivized to keep the prices low enough to draw you in as a customer, where they can make their profits on, well everything else beyond petroleum . . .

Resources: For additional information, see the following

WTRG Economics
(terrific resource for analysis, planning, forecast and data services for energy producers and consumers)
http://www.wtrg.com/

Prices: Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline and Natural Gas
http://www.oilnergy.com/1cashpet.htm#gaso

Gasoline Price Pass-through
by Michael Burdette and John Zyren
January 2003
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2003/gasolinepass/gasolinepass.htm

Gasoline Price History
http://www.ghg.net/stuart/gasprice/gasprice.html

Sunday, August 15, 2004 | 06:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | TrackBack (8)
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Comments

I would have to imagine then that gas retailers must really hate those pay-at-the-pump machines

Posted by: Arch Stanton | Aug 16, 2004 10:40:53 AM

How many gallons of regular gasoline are derived from the average 42 gal barrel of Crude Oil

Posted by: allread | Mar 17, 2005 5:09:29 PM

Back in November of 2004 crude oil prices were around $52/brl yet gas at the pump, in Michigan, was only $170/gal. This was oil company price manipulation pure and simple to soften the sting so people would forget about it and not use it as a reason not to vote for the Bush during the election.

Posted by: keith greening | Apr 14, 2005 5:35:38 AM

gasoline prices suck

Posted by: Alexis | May 2, 2005 10:19:36 AM

Crude oil prices have little or no effect on gasoline prices. In early part of 1999 I read an article that stated oil prices were at a 30 year low, yet gas was selling for about $1.20 gal. compared to 0.35 in 1969. I realize prodution costs would be higher, but almost 4 times? If, as oil companies would have us believe, gas prices are high due to the increase in crude oil prices, how come one of them posted a profit of over 200 BILLION dollars last year?? The oilman in the white house should be sent back to texas.

Posted by: Wizer | Aug 2, 2005 8:47:36 PM

How does the price for crude oil translate to price per gallon for gas for our cars?
How many gallons of gasoline for our cars come from a barrel of crude oil?

Thank you,
cba

C. Bruce Albert
Senior Vice President, Client Services
2920 Nth 7th Street
Phoenix, AZ 85014
cbrucea@transcorgroup.com
http://www.transcorgroup.com

Posted by: C. Bruce Albert | Aug 11, 2005 2:13:26 PM

I didn't see your answer to a good question. Namely how many gallons of gasoline are yielded from a gallon of crude? In other words what percent of the retail price of gasoline is the crude oil expense? Seems to me it is not a one to one cost pass through! Lots of other fixed expenses related to it that should dampen the price increase of crude oil! So in simple terms how many gallons of gasoline are produce from a barrel of crude oil on average? Please E-mail me the answer.

Posted by: Richard Magee | Jun 9, 2006 10:22:08 AM

Where can I find a history of the cost of a barrel of oil vs. the cost of a gallon of gasoline?
I would have to agree with the posting back on March 17, 2005 that oil has retreated in barrel price but not equally at the pump!

Posted by: Don | Oct 12, 2006 9:34:25 AM

"One barrel of crude oil makes about 19½ gallons of gasoline,
9 gallons of fuel oil, 4 gallons of jet fuel, and 11 gallons
of other products, including lubricants, kerosene, asphalt,
and petrochemical feedstocks to make plastics."

Posted by: Pete | Jan 12, 2007 10:16:24 AM

"One barrel of crude oil makes about 19½ gallons of gasoline,
9 gallons of fuel oil, 4 gallons of jet fuel, and 11 gallons
of other products, including lubricants, kerosene, asphalt,
and petrochemical feedstocks to make plastics."

Posted by: Pete | Jan 12, 2007 10:17:05 AM

How long does it take the actual expense of a rise in crude prices to reach the pump. The oil that is gasoline today was probably priced very differently when purchased by the refinery. A rise in crude prices should not necessitate an immediate hike in the price of gasoline, rather, it's an excuse. I think record profits by the oil companies says it all. Greed and speculation drive the price up. Crude prices are an easy excuse, the old "It's not my fault" defense.

It's interesting also that you couple the rise in price to crude prices, which results in a windfall for producers because they get to increase their prices on product they've already paid for but the drop in prices to competetion which results in another windfall. I think we can all see who gets the ore and who gets the shaft.

Posted by: Steve Holle | May 17, 2007 10:22:36 PM

When prices go up at a moments notice it is high profit no doubt. The fuel in the tanks is already payed for at one price. When it goes up in price at the pump in an hours time the profit margin increases greatly for all fuel in the ground at that time. The price fall never happens in hours time only days and weeks as explained. Much like an injection of money that tapers off. This is a business as any other and making a profit is the name of the game.

Posted by: Mike Mallard | May 24, 2007 7:15:58 AM

Confused by various nonprofessional opinions.....Looking to purchase an old home. This home has oil heat as opposed to gas. What's the difference in dollars and efficiency between the two? Should I sincerely think about converting? Please, just give me the bare fact(s)?

Posted by: Will | Mar 1, 2008 7:20:10 PM

Lets see we can go to mars. We can build a space station. You kind of get the idea. MB comes out with a car that is the size of my shoe and it only gets 35miles per gal. So why can't we make a car that get 60 to 70 miles per gallon??? I have a 2 seater sports car that has a supper charger on it and I get 29MPG on the highway.
You can kind of fill in the blanks. I have this feeling the good old American public is getting the screw job. I don't hear anyone talking about this on the campaign trail. But we know big oil is a big backer of our dear legislators.

Posted by: Get Real | Mar 26, 2008 1:49:41 PM

Lets see we can go to mars. We can build a space station. You kind of get the idea. MB comes out with a car that is the size of my shoe and it only gets 35miles per gal. So why can't we make a car that get 60 to 70 miles per gallon??? I have a 2 seater sports car that has a supper charger on it and I get 29MPG on the highway.
You can kind of fill in the blanks. I have this feeling the good old American public is getting the screw job. I don't hear anyone talking about this on the campaign trail. But we know big oil is a big backer of our dear legislators.

Posted by: Get Real | Mar 26, 2008 1:50:44 PM

Is auto gas more or less expensive than heating oil?

Posted by: mike | May 27, 2008 7:55:34 AM

I would like to see a chart starting from say, 1990 through now, 2008. On this chart I would like: the rise and fall(haha) of crude oil price and the dollar/cents amounts each and a comparison by also having the rise and fall(haha) of the pump price in dollar/cents. In other words, How in comparison has the pump price been reflected in the barrel price? Or is it ever?? I remember in 1971 paying .15 per gallon for the cheapest grade of gasoline, here in Texas.

Posted by: SJ | Jul 19, 2008 5:55:50 PM

BULL!!

"When crude prices rise, all the gas stations raise their prices accordingly -- they have no choice, otherwise they would be losing money on each sale."

As the oil industry apologist said; "that barrel of Oil won't make it to your car as gasoline for as long as 3-6 months." So, when crude prices go up gas prices going up SHOULDN'T occur for 3-6 months! (the time it would take for refineries to use up the crude bought at the lower prices)

Posted by: phil gregory | Jul 29, 2008 1:34:21 PM

how much was gas at the pump when crude was at 109 a barrel

Posted by: rob | Sep 2, 2008 1:28:03 PM

The last time the price of crude oil dropped belowed $95.00 a barrel, what was the average price of gas in the us. The price of a barrel keeps dropping but it seems to have little effect on the price at the pump.

Posted by: charles macandrew | Sep 15, 2008 3:13:18 PM

I found a site that is getting me 20% off on gasoline prices. You can to at http://paylessforgasoline.com Get $300 of prepaid gas cards for $240. That's $300 of gas at the pump for $240. Man that's a no brainer

Posted by: Prepaid Gas Cards | Oct 9, 2008 1:34:03 PM

A very simple yet quite accurate formula that has held up more or less steady since 1950 is:

Barrel $ times .033 = avg usa pump price

$140. bbl x .033 = $4.62 (Aug 2008)
$52 bbl x .033 = $1.72 (Aug 2004)

This only follows when prices have been steady for a couple of months and almost never follows the bbl price down as fast as up ... imagine that!

Posted by: bart batterman | Oct 15, 2008 11:31:07 AM

The oil companies and gas stations don't care about people's strugle to survive, every time there is a hurricane and causes damage to the oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico (which they were supposed to be covered by insurances) all the companies rise the gasoline prices. On the other hand It isn't suspicious that in elections time the prices are coming down and as soon as the new president takes over everything comes back to the same situation. High gasoline prices again. I believe the most powerful are linked to the government who allows the speculation, otherwise why are so many gas stations opening if the profits are coming from the quickee market. What of a cynicism.

Posted by: Gil Torres | Oct 24, 2008 5:09:52 PM

The oil companies and gas stations don't care about people's strugle to survive, every time there is a hurricane and causes damage to the oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico (which they were supposed to be covered by insurances) all the companies rise the gasoline prices. On the other hand It isn't suspicious that in elections time the prices are coming down and as soon as the new president takes over everything comes back to the same situation. High gasoline prices again. I believe the most powerful are linked to the government who allows the speculation, otherwise why are so many gas stations opening if the profits are coming from the quickee market. What of a cynicism.

Posted by: Gil Torres | Oct 24, 2008 5:11:12 PM

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