Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/2/04

Tuesday, August 03, 2004 | 03:12 PM

wsj_format_logo



click for larger chart
info-battleground04-0802map
Chart courtesy of WSJ


Yet another fascinating poll, courtesy of the good people at WSJ. Although there appears to be a minimal bounce post-convention, what there was showed up in all the right places for the challenger. John Kerry saw "slightly stronger support among likely voters in 16 battleground states during the Democratic National Convention," according to the latest WSJ/Zogby poll. Kerry leads in 13 states (up from 12 last week). President Bush leads in three states."

Here's the Journals take on the polling data's internals:

The latest poll, conducted July 26-30, was conducted simultaneously with the convention, though some voters were polled before Mr. Kerry's acceptance speech. Mr. Kerry's slight post-convention boost is what pollster John Zogby said he expected. Only a slim margin of voters is undecided, he says, so the conventions aren't likely to cause major swings of support. "The president will get a small bump but -- like Kerry -- not a big one. There is just not enough give this year," Mr. Zogby says.

The leads Messrs. Bush and Kerry hold in 11 of the 16 states are within the margin of error, which varies between +/- 2.5 and +/- 4.4 percentage points. Of the 13 states in which Mr. Kerry is in the lead, all but five are within the margin of error. Mr. Bush's top spots, in three states (Arkansas, Nevada and Ohio), are all within the margin of error. For analysis of how this could play out in the Electoral College, see this article: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0802.html

Presuming that all the states go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Bush would get 220 votes in the Electoral College and Mr. Kerry would get 318. Excluding the 32 total electoral votes from four states considered too close to call, Mr. Bush would get 215 votes and Mr. Kerry, 291.

Stay tuned for the RNC in NY.



Source:
Battlegrounds States Poll - August 2, 2004
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0802print.html

Tuesday, August 03, 2004 | 03:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00d835069ab253ef

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/2/04:

Comments

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner