Chart of the Week: Yield Curve
Looking at the past two decades, whenever the Fed has started tightening AND the yield curve has flattened, it has presaged a downturn in economic activity, as reflected in the ISM.
That is exactly the situation we find ourselves in at present:
Federal Reserve, Yield Curve and the Economy
click for larger chart
chart courtesy of Michael Panzner, Rabo Securities
Panzner used this measure because it has had a pretty good correlation with swings in year-over-year Gross Domestic Product data during the period.
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Monday, September 27, 2004 | 11:18 AM | Permalink
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