Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 9/20/04

Monday, September 20, 2004 | 11:55 PM

wsj_format_logo



The Wall Street Journal shows the race even tighter than several other polls. They note the electoral college tally is 297 to 241, in Senator Kerry's favor; However, Electoral-vote has the balance at 327 to 211 in President Bush‘s favor.

click for larger chart
Infobattleground040920map
Chart courtesy of WSJ

The Journal observes:

"Sen. John Kerry's state tally shrank but his overall position appears to have stabilized among likely voters in many of the 16 battleground states, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll.

Mr. Kerry now leads in 11 states -- down from 12 states he held two weeks ago and 14 a month ago -- and his leads over President Bush in Florida and Arkansas are less than one percentage point. At the same time, he maintained or added to comfortable advantages in Michigan, Oregon and New Mexico -- states that have been largely in his camp since the first poll in this series back in May. One state to watch is Pennsylvania, which is still in Mr. Kerry's column but for the second straight poll is considerably tighter than it was prior to the Republican convention.

The leads Messrs. Bush and Kerry hold in 10 of the 16 states are within the margin of error, which varies between +/- 2.4 and +/- 4.4 percentage points. Mr. Kerry's leads in Washington, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico and Minnesota are outside the margin of error, while Mr. Bush's lead is outside the margin in West Virginia. Presuming that all the states -- including the 33 electoral votes from the tight Florida and Arkansas races -- go to the current leading candidates and that the other 34 states and the District of Columbia go as they did in the 2000 election, Mr. Kerry would get 297 electoral votes and Mr. Bush would get 241."

Note how tight the race is in these three key States:
Ohio
Ohbattleground04oh

Florida
Flbattleground04fl

Pennsylvania
Pabattleground04pa

Also of interest: Nader is polling relatively poorly. He seems to be putting up the strongest numbers where there is the biggest lead: In Minnesota, where Kerry is up by 12.7%, Nader polls 3.9%; In New Mexico, were Kerry is +12.7% Nader gets 2.2%; Oregon has Nader at 1.7% (Kerry +12%)

A few exceptions: In Arkansas, a dead heat, Nader gets 2.2%; In Florida, where Nader was just cleared to be placed on the ballot by State's Supreme Court, is also a statistical tie, and Nader has 0.9%. That's enough to tip the race away from the challenger, and to the incumbent.

No wonder so many Democrats are still so angry at the former consumer folk hero . . .



UPDATE: September 22, 2004 7:01am
The American Research Group (ARG) has a new 50 state poll out. It is consistent with the WSJ/Zogby findings . . .




Sources:
Battlegrounds States Poll - August 23, 2004
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0920print.html

Electoral College Analysis
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0920.html

Monday, September 20, 2004 | 11:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (2)
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» Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 9/20/04 from BOPnews
The Wall Street Journal shows the race even tighter than several other polls. They note the electoral college tally is 297 to 241, in Senator Kerry's favor; However, Electoral-vote has the balance at 327 to 211 in President Bush‘s favor. click... [Read More]

Tracked on Sep 21, 2004 12:41:41 AM

» Fight for Senate Has Tightened from BOPnews
While we have been discussing how tight the Presidential race is -- along with some of the deficiencies of the polling agencies -- we appear to have overlooked the Senate. According to a recent WSJ article, the battle for control... [Read More]

Tracked on Sep 23, 2004 7:21:45 AM

Comments

wsj is owned by Dow Jones. They have been keeping stats and analyzing them longer then anyone around here. They were also very accurate last time. Business owners depend on this accuracy to run their business. I believe wsj numbers.

Posted by: bob | Sep 21, 2004 10:26:16 PM

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