My expectations about the Jobs Report
Yes, I am out on a limb with this jobs report – but as I said on the air – that was an off the cuff remark - I don’t track jobs or do the leg work to accurately forecast them. Instead, I track the market and its reactions to economic data.
But the bigger issue is why have the forecasters been so wrong? Something odd is going on, and no one has figured it out yet.
Still, I find the ongoing forecasting error to be fascinating. As I mentioned, tomorrow is the dismal crowd’s best chance to win “the over,” with a 225 consensus and a 300k “whisper number.” (Who’s the CFO that’s whispering? The Fed Chair? Damned if I know).
Even though I took the under, this is one bet I HOPE I am wrong about . . .
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Do not get to far out on a limb on what one report does-- the ISM nonmanufacturing employment number jumped from 52.2 to 59.6. Do no have much history on this, but the manufacturing job report is a better indicator of the jobs number then unemployment claims.
Posted by: spencer | Mar 3, 2005 3:24:21 PM
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