Regional Surveys, LEI show Growth Slowing
Michael Panzner draws our attention to the Fed's Regional surveys -- which have been showing signs of ongoing weakness.
click for larger graphic
Panzner observes:
"This week two out of three regional surveys of economic activity flashed early warning signs that U.S. economic growth may be poised to slow.
On Monday, the Empire (New York) Federal Reserve Survey declined sharply, coming in at a much lower-than-expected -11.1. Today, the Philadelphia Fed Factory Index also fell, again surprising the market with a near two-year low reading of 7.3.
A quick read of the relationship between year-on-year growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product and those two surveys (plus the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, due out on May 31) suggests these regional surveys may be worth paying especially close attention to."
Thursday, May 19, 2005 | 08:04 PM | Permalink
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Comments
barry, i knocked your 10% down, 30% up, year forecast when you first posted it. let me emphatically state a first half "mae culpa". good news for the rest of the year, and your forecast - i still think sir alan will KILL the cyclicals.
Posted by: james | May 19, 2005 8:54:30 PM
One of the best leading indicators is productivity and it is signalling a very weak second half.
Posted by: spencer | May 20, 2005 8:37:55 AM
Agreed, Spencer.
Posted by: anne | May 20, 2005 12:37:52 PM
A question:
http://flagship4.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsByName
What do these numbers mean? The Vanguard REIT Stock Index has a price earning ratio of 38.8, a return on equity of 9.1, and an earnings growth rate of -5.5%. These numbers make absolutely no sense to me. What am I missing about valuation?
There seems to be a speculative climate for homes in selected American regions, but I wonder if that extends to commercial real estate as well so I thought to use the REIT Index as a gauge. The earnings growth rate extends over 3 years and is heavily negative at -5.5%. So REIT earning have been slowing; actually the earning growth rate has been negative for more than 4 years, but REITs gain in price. How curious.
Posted by: anne | May 20, 2005 12:43:13 PM
anne: maybe lots of small investor after the magic words "Real Estate", but looking no further? Just guessing... would small investors make a difference?
Posted by: idook | May 20, 2005 2:57:35 PM
