Chart of the Week: 10 Year Yield (Post-Crash) vs Japan
Even in this recovery with near zero Fed Funds, job growth was weak and wage growth never materialized.
What will the next recovery look like?
Post Bubble Yields: U.S. 10 Year(Post-2000) vs Japan (Post-1989)
click for huge chart
Rate Cycle: Lower Lows, Lower Highs
Charts courtesy of JDC
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The stimulation for the next recovery might be even more limited, given the extremes in current leverage and rates. If we follow the Japanese model, stocks could go down for several years, bonds go up even further, as the dollar rallies, materials and energy stocks do poorly. In this scenario, Gold diverges from the dollar and rallies strongly.
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Random Items
U.S. Bond Forecasters, Wrong on Yields in 2004, Blow It Again
Predicting Real Growth Using the Yield Curve (PDF)
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Quote of the Day
The greatest booms unfold when capital concentrates in one sector. When that capital shifts, you also find the result of the greatest financial panics in history.
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Monday, June 06, 2005 | 10:59 AM | Permalink
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Comments
If bonds make new highs from here, won't that continue the housing boom?
And if the housing boom continues, won't it provide more fuel for the stock market?
Posted by: Chris | Jun 6, 2005 3:02:13 PM
Its not so much that Japan is pulling the US down, as their experience post 1989 crash sets an example of what we may be in for.
If you believe that marekts are merely a result of human activity, and that is only a reflection of Human nature, well the next step is that all of these crashes -- 1929, '89, and 2000 should look roughly parallel . . .
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Jun 8, 2005 7:56:38 AM
surely the comparison is europe and Japan?
Posted by: Mark T | Jun 10, 2005 3:33:19 AM
Want more knowledge.
Posted by: shikha | Feb 2, 2006 3:24:51 AM
