"Its different this time."
Make no doubt about it -- thats precisely what Alan Greenspan said about the "puzzling decline" in long-term rates.
In the past, a decrease in yield on the 30 year was a signal of upcoming economic weakness. The Fed Chair argued that "they aren't as reliable a signal of such weakness as in the past."
You see, "its different this time."
But is it really? We looked at the 4 factors impacting rates, and some things have changed: Most prominently, the incredibly dumb decision to stop issuing 30 year bonds. But the rest of the forces we see impacting bonds: global labor arbitrage with Asia exporting wage deflation, as well as the Asian purchases of Treasuries -- are long standing factors.
So why believe that its "different this time?" The WSJ suggests:
Since June 2004, the Fed has raised its short-term rate target to 3% from 1% and has signaled plans to raise it further, while the 10-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to less than 4% from 4.7%. That sort of decline in long-term rates "is clearly without recent precedent," Mr. Greenspan said via satellite to the International Monetary Conference, a meeting of bankers from around the world, in Beijing.
You know what else is clearly without recent precedent? A Fed trying to manage their way through a post-bubble environment by hyper stimulating growth via ultra-low interest rates and increased money supply.
Why the Fed Chief has invoked 9/11 as the reason for putting the world awash in liquidity, he should consider the only thing different this time is him and the Federal Reserve.
The last comparable bubbles -- 1929 in the U.S. and Japan in 1989 -- didn't see the massive liquidity inflows this Fed geenrated -- nor the problems the "Free Lunch" ultimately creates.
I do not advocate a return to the Gold standard like Greenspan's Objectivism hero (Ayn Rand) favors -- but I have to admit that I see their point. This massive manipulation of the global economy by the U.S. Central Bank has the potential to be enormously disruptive.
Here's the accompanying graphic:
Interest Rate Spread: 10-Year Treasury Bond Less Fed Funds Rate (3-month Moving Average)
Greenspan Casts Doubt on Import of Falling Rates
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, June 7, 2005; Page A2
Yield Curve Message - It's Different This Time?
Paul Kasriel, Asha Bangalore
Northern Trust, June 08, 2005
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Interesting, but you left out what the pitfalls of all that liquidity are. Care to finish that thought for your non-economist readers?
Posted by: royce | Jun 8, 2005 8:26:36 AM
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