Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (1/31/06)
Tonight's media appearance will be Kudlow & Company. I will be on from 5:20 to 6:00 pm, along with Cult of the Man Cow President Noah Blackstein, John Rutledge, and Gene Henssler. I imagine the Fed Meeting and statement will be discussed extensively.
Also appearing: Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne and politico Terry Jeffrey discussing the SOTU address.
I rarely do the political thing (I'm an Independent), but here's my overview:
• The President has little budgetary room -- and even less political capital -- for any grand projects; If he can extend his tax cuts, it would be a big victory;
• I would love to see some sort of a capital gains tax cut for the development of alternative energies; Sending lots of $$$ to the Middle East works against our National Security interests;
• Bush's re-election was not a mandate, but (IMO) a decision by the electorate not to change horses or riders during a War; It also speaks to his challenger's relative lack of appeal;
• Ironically, the President gave nearly that exact same advice to Hammas: Not a mandate, but a repudiation of your opposition;
• He is almost -- but not quite -- a lame duck;
• There is a small but increasing chance the GOP will lose control of one house of Congress.
As far as the market is concerned, we have seen much better performance under a mixed government than with single party rule.
When Republican President Reagan was forced to deal with Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill, and when Democratic President Clinton had to deal with Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrinch, it forced all involved towards the Center -- where Mr. Market likes them.
In each of these instances of divided government, Markets did well. Why? When politicos grit their teeth and learn to work together, good things happen. Each side cuts the other's desires by claiming fiscal prudence: Taxes get cut, spending gets cut, budgets get balanced, good things happen.
The one divided government caveat: just about all of the 4 terms of the Reagan and Clinton divided government market gains came during the 1982 - 2000 Bull run.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006 | 03:45 PM | Permalink
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Cult of the Man Cow President has a really nice ring to it, doesn't it?
Posted by: Drumsfeld | Jan 31, 2006 4:10:05 PM
Barry,
Cant wait to hear their explanation on the Google earnings miss....
And dont forget to throw in a little jibe to Cody "I wish my last name were Google" Willard.
Posted by: erikpupo | Jan 31, 2006 4:48:23 PM
Also an independent........former Republican..........wish we had a viable third party...........politician hating American.
I'd love to see the Democrats clean house in 2006. It ain't because I like any of them. Single party rule does not seem to work. Bush needs a little more of a serious challenge to his policies. At least we'd have more gridlock so those shysters couldn't pass any more frigging regulations or laws that require even more government. And if we'd cut the damn defense budget to something less than 50% of the world's total spending on defense, we could likely have a little more flexibility with some creative energy programs or have enough room to keep his tax cuts. Nah, I'd rather spend it all killing everyone we see. Or at least arming ourselves in preparation for such a task.
I hate partisan politicians......that's an oxymoron. All of them are out of touch and ruining our country.
Posted by: B | Jan 31, 2006 8:57:23 PM
The Republicans were false to their smaller gov't promises--esp. Bush. And the Democrats prosmise larger gov't. Sad situation.
Posted by: algernon | Jan 31, 2006 9:57:17 PM
Screw the D's and the R's.....right now the libertarians are our only hope.
Posted by: Jordan | Jan 31, 2006 10:23:22 PM
I can't STAND Noah Blackstein... [THIS IS A NON VIOLENT SITE -- please keep it mellow]
Hey... can you believe I covered my GOOG short this afternoon before the bell? LOL It was one of THOSE days.
Politics... Bush is one scary guy. He doesn't understand that you should give people an opportunity to exit confrontation while saving face. He can "diffuse" a situation.
And CAN YOU BELIEVE a majority of Americans would support an attack on Iran?! What the heck are people thinking?!?!?!?!
Posted by: todd | Feb 1, 2006 1:33:49 AM
Barry--
I am anxiously awaiting a reappearance of The Sweater. It strikes fear in the hearts of Blackstein, Kudlow and Rutledge. Or do you save it for -200pt Dow days? FEAR THE SWEATER.
Posted by: Mark | Feb 1, 2006 5:50:49 AM
Barry, I turned it on just as the group was discussing the fed funds rate, and you mentioned a stat that some group had done a study and found that stocks were lower 65% of the time, after the fed was done. Can I just get an explanation of that since I missed it? Or, if anyone else saw it, can they detail it for me please?
Posted by: DG | Feb 1, 2006 7:36:29 AM
I live in australia and as consequence cannot get cnbc.
I was wondering if i could get a picture or description of "The Sweater" from somebody who saw the show in question ?
Posted by: obie | Feb 1, 2006 9:02:59 AM
DG:
Its here:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/02/once_fed_hikes_.html
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Feb 1, 2006 1:09:30 PM
DG-
Mere words cannot describe it! It is awesome to behold! The Cult of The Man Cow trembles in its presence!
Posted by: Mark | Feb 1, 2006 5:24:20 PM
