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February CPI Tame

I would be remiss if I failed to address yesterday's CPI data, which can be described as tepid. And as you may have surmised, this does not change my views about inflation. One data point does not make a trend.

As the chart at left shows, the slight downtick in inflation is hardly trendbusting.

Indeed, the prime source of moderation in February was declining energy prices. Funny, the inflation ex-energy crowd -- after 52 months of rising oil prices -- decided that NOW was the time to report CPI with energy. Cute.

Even more significantly, the offsetting items that dropped in price are the typically volatile issues that may (or may not) rise next month. Indeed, from the lows in February of ~$59.25, Oil has rallied to $65.

Of course, when the March CPI comes out next month, we will hear that "its only a short term energy spike."  I predict in the March CPI, the emphasis will  return to CPI ex-energy. That's consistent with the 4 year history of CPI inflation ex-inflation.

On to the details. The BLS reported Energy prices fell 1.2% -- after a 5% rise in January (Gee, why don't we report those 2 data points together like they did in response to tepid Retail Sales?). The WSJ notes "energy prices "were still 20% higher than a year ago. Gasoline prices fell by 1%, and natural-gas costs dropped 4.5%, the sharpest slide since September 2001."

I am nothing if not consistent:  I think you have to consider the decrease in energy this month (as opposed to those who have ignored it for 4 years). But we have already seen much of those price drops reversed in March. I am already gearing up to respond to CPI next month when the Booyah crowd selectively claims: "its only a volatile energy number."

Note that in annual terms, overall CPI rose 3.6% -- and thats with all of the absurdities that number embodies.

This has led -- for the 3rd time in 8 months, mind you -- for the Fed to be Two and Through or even One and Done. Marketwatch's Rex Nutting observed:

"Futures markets now expect the federal funds rate to peak at 5% in May, rather than at 5.25% in June as expected just four days ago. There's even a small chance -- about 1-in-6 -- that the Fed will call it quits after one more rate hike, leaving the fed funds rate at 4.75%. See interactive graphic tracking federal funds rate.

The rally in the federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade mirrors a big rally in the bond market Thursday. The yield on the 10-year benchmark note fell to 4.65% from 4.73% Wednesday. The 10-year was trading significantly below the 4.75% rate expected for the federal funds rate just two weeks hence."

Rex also points out:

The core inflation rate remained at 2.1% year-over-year as the consumer price index rose a moderate 0.1% in February.

Import prices excluding fuels have risen just 0.8% in the past year.

Real weekly wages are down 0.1% in the past year.

Housing starts fell 8% in February. Mortgage applications are down 20% year-over-year.

Weekly jobless claims rose to the highest level of the year.

Retail sales fell 1.3% in February.

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region showed a slower pace of growth in March, and a steady reduction in inflation pressures.

If the March CPI data (to be released April 20) is even modestly robust, we can all enjoy a chuckle when the One and Done crowd's heads explode . . .

Source:
Energy Prices Cool Off, Helping Restrain CPI
WALL STREET JOURNAL, March 16, 2006 5:31 p.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114251447337400025.html

Fed likely to stop at 5%, market says
Rex Nutting,
MarketWatch, 3:01 PM ET Mar 16, 2006
http://tinyurl.com/hhckm

Consumer prices tame in February
Core CPI rate rises 0.1%, keeping yearly gain to 2.1%
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, 10:02 AM ET Mar 16, 2006
http://tinyurl.com/qvc6d

Friday, March 17, 2006 | 07:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

Barry,

Click on the URL, if Blogger is working today.

You will see that the CPI is anything but tepid. Just a taste...

For 2006 annualized: energy +24.7%, petroleum energy products +31.7%, food +3.5%.

The fed and markets are delusional at best.

Posted by: The Nattering Naybob | Mar 17, 2006 8:09:53 AM

It's funny they have been saying for over a year now, the fed will pause next month. Or the fed is almost done, remeber Fischers comments about being in the 8th inning, i think were are in the 13th now right? On thrusdays i always drive thru my favorite fast food restaurant for dinner after i do some volunteer work, well much to my surprise since inflation is so tame, they rasied their prices again, UGH! the price of what i normally get has gone up about 25% in less then 3 years. Not to mention our material supplier at work is raising their prices again, and they promised to take away a fuel surcharge but never have, last price increase just over a year ago was 22%, not sure how much more this time. Thank god we have no inflation cause if we did i just might need to go on welfare

Posted by: Tom | Mar 17, 2006 12:41:54 PM

Aren't you jokers in on the game....CPI is kept low so bankrupt USofA pays less to the senior folks!

Posted by: EKC | Mar 17, 2006 2:49:40 PM

By the way, I got hammered on the TLT trade b/c of that fkin CPI number, that's why I am PISSED.

Posted by: EKC | Mar 17, 2006 2:53:15 PM

Furthermore, what was lost in this CPI BS was the $9 trillion debt number (was this deliberate?). Young guys like me would end up holding the bag on this one.

Posted by: EKC | Mar 17, 2006 3:07:01 PM