Getting Back In
How funny is this:
Source:
The New Yorker, 2001
Friday, June 30, 2006 | 03:30 PM | Permalink
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Comments
That cartoon is hilarious...
Regarding the market, I was concerned after the first bottom that the new lows list stayed high as we rebounded, and that proved useful as we came back down to retest. On the retest, the new lows contracted steadily which was also useful in hindsight.
Now, on focusing whether or not the market has bottomed, I'm focusing on the new highs list since the new lows list is now longer in the picture (it has contracted clearly enough to indicated that we bottomed). The new highs list is showing that we've got good strength in that we have more new highs at this point in the indices than on all the previous rally attempts.
The one negative is the Vix. It contracted quite a bit for us to get to this point and is indicating that upside is limited. The best hope I think for this market to sustain a rally is for constant pullbacks to refresh fear in the Vix, or have the Vix rise while the market is rising resulting in a meltup.
Any thoughts?...or is everyone on vacation already!...
Posted by: Michael C. | Jun 30, 2006 4:00:22 PM
Tulips are cheaper than they've been in decades on pro-forma metrics. We've been scaling into new positions on pullbacks for the last quarter. In our view, the rotation into large cap bulbs will drive prices going forward. We have a buy on yellow/red swirl hydribs (YRSH) up to 26, with a 12mo target of 29.50 and ThinkPinkExtraLarge (TPXL) is a buy to 30 with an upside target of 146.
Posted by: Alaskan Pete | Jun 30, 2006 4:58:34 PM
That was 1637 and you guys still hold a grudge?
The modern Bloemenmarkt in Amsterdam is doing well.
Posted by: Fred | Jun 30, 2006 6:26:34 PM
But, wait. There's a big, big difference between rare tulip bulbs and ordinary tulip bulbs.
http://people.few.eur.nl/smant/m-economics/tulipmania.htm
The ordinary bulb market stayed orderly.
Posted by: John Navin | Jun 30, 2006 6:38:55 PM
Yet another fed rally. How many does this make so far? Number 5?
Capitulation delayed or capitulation denied?
Posted by: eightnine2718281828mu5 | Jun 30, 2006 7:35:06 PM
The tulip is the foundational 'bubble' myth, neatly debunked, along with other historical 'bubbles,' in Peter Garber's 'Famous First Bubbles':
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0262072041/ref=ase_institutional-20/103-5440280-5567053?s=books&v=glance&n=283155&tagActionCode=institutional-20
Posted by: Stephen Kirchner | Jun 30, 2006 10:42:09 PM
«But, wait. There's a big, big difference between rare tulip bulbs and ordinary tulip bulbs. [ ... ]
The ordinary bulb market stayed orderly.»
Well, if you look instead at the USA market, all tulips have gone up.
Sometimes people forget that there have been two bubbles, and that «irrational exhuberance» was in 1996, and was not about the ''black tulip'' mania of the dot.coms.
If one looks at say the P/Es the whole market, including totally ordinary companies, is priced rather above historical trend.
Posted by: Blissex | Jul 1, 2006 7:03:05 PM
