More on Why Former Market Leaders No Longer Lead
I mentioned last month that Old Stars Don’t Lead New Bulls; In light of the recent bloodletting on the Nasdaq, I brought this up on Kudlow & Co. Wednesday evening.
Some people (mostly emailers unable to spell) refuse to believe this. One had the temeritiy to demand some proof.
By coincidence, I just happen to have some. I'm doing a new column on this for RM, and I have been working with the nice folks at the Wilshire Associates. They culled this together from their extensive database. Its a comparison between the market performers from the 10 year period of the 1990s (December 31, 1989 through Decmber 31,1999). We then compared that with the recent period from the 2002 lows (Septmber 30, 2002 through June 21, 2006). The only requirement was a Market cap of > 1billion (as of the ending date).
Here's the top 20; If anyone is interested, I can upload the full spreadsheet of the top 50, along with a look at market caps.
click for larger graphic
Note how different the sectors are in the groups representing the leadership for each era . . .
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Tracked on Jul 23, 2006 1:51:36 AM
Quick and Dirty (left out the returns listed NA). The top performers of the previous decade averaged an 87% return since Sept. 02, while the S&P returned 51% and the NASDAQ returned 88%. It appears last decades top performers outperformed / equaled the recent bull.
Posted by: Jake | Jul 14, 2006 7:47:06 AM
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