Hey Bernanke, What Up?
Doug Kass has been running an Entourage themed commentary today:
"Technology remains in a downward trajectory, almost as bad as Aquaman's (Vince in "Entourage") sputtering career. Simply stated, tech remains drek and subject to future shlock.
The financials, specifically money center banks, are on the rise like Turtle's rap group (Saigon). Nevertheless, I continue to short Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) on any strength.
The cyclicals remain problematic -- like Ari's new talent management agency that Beverly D'Angelo is trying to revive! And energy is as sold as Eric ("E")!
The homewreckers continue their ascent of the last week, though like Johnny Drama and his new movie gig, the sector remains tenuous.
Finally, the consumer staples, despite protestations from many quarters that they are the place to hide, are getting less respect that Ari's secretary, Lloyd."
Over the course of several IMs, I mentioned a few things to Doug (which he agreed with me on):
1) I think the odds of a 1/4 point hike is much higher than people think; I place it at 49%, versus the 18% or so the Fed Fund Futures have on it;
2) As far as the parallel to Entourage, i asked "When do we get the bar brawl with Seth Greens guys?"
Here's Doug's write up:
Hey Bernanke, What Up?
"Tomorrow holds more suspense than I think the Fed Funds Futures market suggests.
Today's action was relatively benign. Tomorrow holds more suspense than I think the Fed Funds Futures market suggests (under 18% chance of a Fed increase). Like Seth Green said to "E" regarding his girlfriend Sloane, the market wants to know "What Up?" Hey Bernanke, what up? We will know in about 23 hours. Enjoy your evening."
Fun stuff . . .
Monday, August 07, 2006 | 04:22 PM | Permalink
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Anyone who can quote Entourage and the stock market in the same article pretty much rules this world. Awesome stuff.
Posted by: Kevin | Aug 7, 2006 4:34:05 PM
The next time you are over at CNBC - tell them to take my suggestion of cutting all the "one and done"'s from all the analysts they have had on for the past year and a half. Of course it would take over an hour to run all of them (Steve Liesman's "one and done" reports would take most of 1/2 an hour : http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/TV_Info/Anchors&Reporters/P22263.asp) Bernanke is only interested in one thing, and that's inflation, the market is looking at all of these other 'indicators' - they don't matter to Bernanke - just what is core inflation at, which is a problem because it's a lagging indicator. Energy will continue to drive prices up for the next year, so inflation will continue to rise, and Bernanke will continue to raise rates. It'll stop somewhere in the 6.5% range - but I might be wrong...
Posted by: mightbwrong | Aug 7, 2006 4:55:22 PM
God, it's so f--king nerve-wracking. There's the Ned Lamont vs. Joe Doberman primary in CT tomorrow too- and so the direction of our country hangs in the balance as well... Incidentally, I have a photo of Ann Coulter nude on my blog.
Posted by: Sherman McCoy | Aug 7, 2006 5:23:20 PM
Beware clever links, young fellow, as I learned to my chagrin when I entitled a little post about refining margins Crack spreads. The comments-spambots have been unable to leave that one alone.
As for rates, I plan to buy the cheapest, short-dated, out-of-the-money US index puts I can find tomorrow morning. If the Fed pauses, I win on my existing Yen calls; if the fed raises, I win on the puts.
Posted by: wcw | Aug 7, 2006 5:37:13 PM
hey idiot --- when FED pauses you lose on Yen puts, when FED raises you lose on calls
so either way you lose.. be careful..
better to be idle..
Posted by: wcw2 | Aug 7, 2006 6:08:49 PM
Yuck, Sherman, looking at Coulter nude is worse than looking at her as a old aging wannabe bombshell. Not very sexy at all. Get rid of that link please!!!
Posted by: Cherry | Aug 7, 2006 6:49:50 PM
There are time horizons beyond two minutes, too. Break out your monthly return stream and I'll post mine.
Not that it matters, but next time you think you're being clever, just say what you mean. I have absolutely no idea what your riddle-me-this-grasshopper verbiage was supposed to communicate.
"Hey idiot," that I understood.
Good luck tomorrow, nevertheless, at least so long as you're not on the other side of my trades.
Posted by: wcw | Aug 7, 2006 6:50:59 PM
I'm not clicking the link, but just the idea of Coulter nude is a thermonuclear boner killer.
Posted by: Brian | Aug 7, 2006 7:35:03 PM
That's SO not Ann Coulter. Not even close.
That's a woman in the picture. Ann is not.
Posted by: Andy | Aug 7, 2006 7:38:06 PM
Just go to show if you put a witches head on a princesses body you still have a witch.
Posted by: Bob A | Aug 7, 2006 10:59:27 PM
Gotta disagree with Kevin. That was some of the most poorly patched-in pop culture reference work I've ever read.
Posted by: David | Aug 7, 2006 11:22:11 PM
I agree with you, Barry, although I am not sure where the 49% figure comes in.
The entire market is ready for a shake-up. 83% of the traders betting against a Fed increase makes me think that emotional trading is trumping fundamentals.
Funny part is, the Fed doesn't have to raise rates to roil them -- it just has to say that it may raise rates at the next meeting.
As a mortgage guy, I have been telling my clients to lock their rates as soon as possible. I am expecting carnage tomorrow in the MBS market.
Posted by: Dan Green | Aug 8, 2006 12:13:01 AM
That IS Ann! I knew her in college and she had that knee thing growing out of her crotch....
it made her very angry at times...that and her Catholicism....VERY angry.
Posted by: brion | Aug 8, 2006 3:06:34 AM
