Dow 36,000!
James K. Glassman, the author of the book Dow 36,000 was on CNBC just now, credibly discussing his 36,000 forecast.
This one is so obvious, I will not even comment, and instead ask you: What do you suspect this might possibly mean?
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Friday, September 29, 2006 | 02:49 PM | Permalink
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Comments
What was Rudolph-Younes Riad's brilliantly formulated description of investing in Barron's a couple of weeks ago? A combination of dogmatism and pragmatism. I didn't see the CNBC interview, but when the market crashed, these guys pragmatically lowered their profiles. Now that we're closing in on the old highs, at least in nominal terms, they're pragmatically reasserting the old dogma! I think they're on to something this time. Dow 36000. With all that buying power sitting on the sidelines, with all those hedgies needing to make their years, and justify their existences, we get there by year end. First quarter 2007, latest.
Posted by: Scott Frew | Sep 29, 2006 3:02:37 PM
STOCK MARKET TOP! STOCK MARKET TOP!
Posted by: Dan Weber | Sep 29, 2006 3:15:16 PM
I'll guess it means the producers at CNBC are in extreme short positions and getting a little nervous, and so they want to speed up the process...
Posted by: Bob_in_ma | Sep 29, 2006 3:19:15 PM
It must mean the 2nd edition will be in a bookstore near you soon.
Posted by: S | Sep 29, 2006 3:23:57 PM
OMG, did you read the paean from Knight Kiplinger that this work is in the same league with Buffet's homilies and Graham's books! Did he use the word "altar"?
Posted by: Mark | Sep 29, 2006 3:24:18 PM
Never fear--Prechter has a new book out too, calling yet another top. Hurray, one year he may be right! But what a genius he has shown for top picking since 1987...
I am actually bearish, but if Bob P. agrees with me I better reexamine my position, and positions. LOL.
Thanks Barry.
Posted by: lurker | Sep 29, 2006 3:27:29 PM
Battapaglia getting cautious in July helped me do some long side trades . . .
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Sep 29, 2006 3:39:52 PM
BTW, I just don't know how putting a short on for a trade here at the end of the day can be wrong.
The market is overbought. ISM on Monday will be a lose/lose. If it's too hot, inflation fears are raised and bonds sell off pulling equities down with them. If ISM is weak, they view it as supportive of the Philly Fed and people worry about slower growth. If it hits the mark, then they just take profits from this pimp rally the past few weeks.
But then, someone once said that if something looks obvious in the market it probably isn't. Even so, my bets are made.
Posted by: S | Sep 29, 2006 3:41:26 PM
Barry,
The greatest thing was watching you tell Joey B. that he was your contrarian indicator.
Posted by: KB | Sep 29, 2006 3:43:16 PM
You laugh, but this guy is one smart cookie. By picking a very high hurdle he has given his book decades of shelf life. And then, when he is brought out as a centenarian to give interviews when the mark is finally made he will say, "I predicted this years before anyone else did."
My forecast: Dow 1,242,355,392.
Posted by: Trent | Sep 29, 2006 3:46:23 PM
CNBC is such a joke anymore.
Josh
Posted by: TRJ | Sep 29, 2006 3:46:52 PM
And they say they don't ring a bell at the top!
There's your sign......
Posted by: Craig | Sep 29, 2006 4:04:15 PM
Anybody see the Kiplinger's story today? They're saying 12,070 on the Dow by year end and 13,000 by year end 2007. Kiplinger's reason for this prediction is that the U.S. is in for a soft landing because rates WILL remain low and housing is just cooling off. Must be nice to see the future through rose colored glasses.
Posted by: Michael A | Sep 29, 2006 4:13:22 PM
No comment needed indeed. For the uninitiated, click on the link to go to amazon and read few reviews... ;-)
Posted by: Dimitre Chtilianov | Sep 29, 2006 4:14:03 PM
How do I get an autographed copy?
Posted by: GerryL | Sep 29, 2006 4:16:02 PM
I remember attending an investing conf in Chicago back when that Glassman book was popular and he was considered a guru.
Some of us in the audience questioned his assumptions, and were booed by the the other 99% who were drinking this charlatans kool-aid.
Posted by: Dr. Dreyfuss | Sep 29, 2006 4:18:27 PM
On the shelf right next to my Jun 2005 Time cover about the wonders of home appreciation.
Posted by: Robert Coté | Sep 29, 2006 4:28:54 PM
Has Ben Stein written a "How Not To Ruin Your Life" column about Glassman yet? Poor guy.
Posted by: Greg Feirman | Sep 29, 2006 4:31:12 PM
Notice that "Customers who bought this item also bought":
http://www.amazon.com/Roaring-2000s-Building-Lifestyle-Greatest/dp/0684853108/ref=pd_sim_b_2/002-1894574-8008800?ie=UTF8
http://www.amazon.com/2008-Why-Different-This-Time/dp/1893958701/ref=pd_sim_b_1/002-1894574-8008800?ie=UTF8
Funny how that works...
-Alex
Small Investor Chronicles
Posted by: Alex Khenkin | Sep 29, 2006 4:54:12 PM
But I feel jalous - why in heck those guys are invited to CNBC? This is very unfair to hundreds of other smart people who write good books or maintain interesting websites.
How come TV just doesn't dump those Glassmans into oblivion, never mention them and never answer their calls?
Posted by: bob | Sep 29, 2006 4:54:14 PM
Opps, sorry about that - I didn't expect the links to look so ugly across the page...
Posted by: Alex Khenkin | Sep 29, 2006 4:55:44 PM
Maria, get the party hats and ballons ready...
and line up that guy who wrote DOW 36,000 for an interview.
Posted by: tjofpa | Sep 20, 2006 3:35:42 PM
They're definetly reading your're blog Barry...
and maybe ... gulp... spying on u?
YOu gotem worried!
Posted by: tjofpa | Sep 29, 2006 4:56:15 PM
You know what really has me worried?
No "The Super Duperity Depression of 2007" by Ravi Batra.
Now I know we're *&^%$#!!
Posted by: mh497 | Sep 29, 2006 4:57:03 PM
Dow 3600…. Amazing how history is repeating itself all over again.
I have to admit it. It was so tempting and I could not resist. I took some short positions today after watching James K. Glassman on CNBC.
“Barry, The greatest thing was watching you tell Joey B. that he was your contrarian indicator.”
This was one of the best memorable moments of Kudlow Show. Joe’s facial expression was definitely a bonus. His face was like the poor thing was about to cry.
Posted by: V L | Sep 29, 2006 5:07:07 PM
and on the free Briefing.com site today...
Tech Sector Gets a Raise: Check out our Industry Insight page to find out why we're upgrading our opinion on the Technology sector from Market Weight to Overweight.
...while downgrades this week to X (monday) and NEM
(wednesday) may have marked a bottom.
You just gotta love this stuff.
Posted by: tjofpa | Sep 29, 2006 5:22:32 PM
