The Big Picture | December 2006

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New Year's Eve Linkfest

Sunday, December 31, 2006 | 04:00 PM

That was a helluva surprising year, to say the least: The Market sold off mid-year, but rallied back harder than many people (me included) anticipated; By just about any measure, 2006 was a much stronger year than most had forecast. By the numbers, the Russell 2000 surged 17%, just edging out the Dow's gain of 16.3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 lifted 13.6%, while Nasdaq Comp was the laggard, gaining "just" 9.5%.

Oil gained exactly one penny over 2006 -- but it sure didn't feel that way. Natural gas plummeted -44% for the year. Gold was a winner, up 23%, but the yellow stuff couldn't keep up with either Copper (+41%) or Silver (+46%). The US Dollar, measured by the J.P. Morgan Dollar Index, lost about 4%. Overseas markets were also up big, with most outperforming the U.S. Indices.

Let's take a look a the key stories gone by -- and those that will matter in 07: Its the last linkfest of 2006!:

INVESTING & TRADING

• "LET'S DISPENSE WITH THE SUSPENSE. We already know what 2007 will mean for the stock market: Because it is the third year of a presidential term, the market will be up dramatically, as has been the case in such years. But because it's a year ending in "7" that is not the second year of a presidential term, 2007 will not be as good as typical third years of the election cycle. And let's not forget that because it's a "7" year that's also the fifth year of a bull market, we'll see a late-year crash, a la 1937 and '87." So said Mike Santoli, with tongue planted firmly in cheek, in this week's Barron's Trader column;

• How the Bulls Stole Wall Street (WSJ)

• Floyd Norris asks: Does the S.E.C. Know What It Is Doing?

• Given the underperformance of the Nasdaq, its no surprise we witnessed a Nasdaq Trend Break

• Why did so many IPOs list in London and Hong Kong? For the same reason Willie Sutton robbed banks: Its where the money is: The Big Apple's glory days have passed

• There are tons of year end reviews and previews:
Year End Review & Preview Marketwatch
2006 Revisited: Spanning the Globe Marketbeat
Markets Scorecard 2006 WSJ (free)
What to Watch for in 2007 WSJ (free)
10 stocks that could outperform in 2007 (Marketwatch)

• And since it is that time of year: Seven Pointers for Parsing Predictions (Real Money)

• Here's a surprise NONE forecasted: Securities Fraud Lawsuits Fall to 10-Year Low in 2006

• So many Wall St. Bonuses, So Few Ferraris: If you can find a 599, then grab one (highly recommend) otherwise, you may have to make do with a mere 430 (don't look so glum, the spyder is a fun ride)

• Its been a very long time since we saw a S&P 500 2% Correction?

• Does your financial advisor add value? A seminal study this year suggests most do not...

• S&P's Sam Stovall Says History Supports a Continued Bull Market (video)

• The WSJ looks at Bosses' Pay: How Stock Options Became Part of the Problem

• Take a look at this 4-year chart for the dollar Ouch!

• Doubling Down on Emerging Markets (Barron's)

• The Telegraph (UK) asks: M&A bankers enjoy the boom, but is the bubble about to burst?

• Good advice for the New Year: Resolve to Save More, Cut Debt

• Tips for Donating Your Used Junk (note the timely tax factor)

• Finally, under personal finance, the reporters of the WSJ's Strategies for SavingTime and Money;

ECONOMY

This week, the Wall of Worry eased back a bit:

• Mark Hulbert asks: Is the Market signaling recession? Taking all the recent information assimilated by the financial markets together, the message is that an economic downturn may be on tap.

• Mike Darda of MKM Partners Sees Economy Growing at About 3% in 2007 (video)

• Growth or recession in 2007?

• Top economists answer 10 burning economic questions

• ATA Truck Tonnage Index Plummeted 3.6 percent in November (lots of comments andhere discussion )

• This is intriguing: Does Consumer Price Index overstate food inflation? Consider the Impact of Big-Box Stores on Retail Food Prices

HOUSING

• John Mauldin took the weekend off, so he used a commentary I had written for the office as a guest piece: Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy. It is a long analysis that attempts to put the real estate boom into some context: how it developed, whats gone right and wrong, and what could happen going forward.

• TheStreet.com's Marek Fuchs asks "Is there Too Much Housing Hope?"

• Good news for bargain hunters: Distressed Real-Estate: Priced to Sell in 2007

• Well, which is it?:
- End of Housing Slump Seems to Be Drawing Near

- Housing Bottoming ? Hardly

- Home Sales Bode Well for Big Picture

- Housing Bears May Just Have It Right for 2007

• All this leads to the question: Will the Housing market s tabilize in 2007?

• Meanwhile, REITS -- with their emphasis on commercial real estate -- have avoided the residential woes: Housing Fall off Hasn't Troubled REIT Funds

• Housing Developments Last Week and This Week

• They are still relatively low, but a Bankrate survey: Mortgage rates jump; Also New tax law tweaks home-buying math

• Good advice for the future: Making Your House Pay in Retirement

FEDERAL RESERVE

Its been quiet on the Fed front for a while (a little too quiet). Here's what caught my eye this week:

• Is the Fed painted into a corner? Economists see Fed's rate-hike pause lasting for another six months ; See also It's the Fed vs. the markets as main event of 2007

• Econogeek! I love this monthly collection of charts published by the St. Louis Fed's Monetary Trends

• Central Banks Will Give Less of the Same in 2007

• European Money-Supply Growth Is Fastest in 16 Years

RETAIL/SHOPPING

The post-mortem on Holiday shopping

• In general, Holiday Sales Fell Short; Data from the ICSC Retail Chain Sales was disappointing; So too was the wrap up from Master Card Advisors;

• An extensive look at The State of the Consumer, by the Numbers via Northern Trust;

• Which is the perfect lead in for Caroiline Baum: Christmas Is Over. Let the Sales Angst Begin!

• Wal-Mart Blames Short-Term Woes, But Some Expect Challenges to Remain; Meanwhile, their December sales were up 1.6% froma year ago (only fair, but better than expected).

Sentiment/Psychology

• Barron's: "What strikes us about the current investment scene is how defensive, even delusional, the raging bulls are. And despite rolling in the long green by grace of the big market year, what a bunch of sore winners they are, insistent that everyone else is bearish and only they, brave souls, have the courage to be optimistic." (if no Barron's go here)

• One of the more difficult aspects of transitioning from trader to strategist is reconciling the short term technical aspects of the market with the longer term macro environment. Since July, we have seen a decaying macro picture concurrent with a strong market trend. If you follow both, it can make you schizoid.

• Bullish Mood for '07 Has Some People Feeling Bad

Energy

• Study: Iran faces crisis as its oil exports drop (no excuse for a nuclear program, though)

• uh-oh: U.S. Official Overseeing Oil Program Faces Inquiry (It may be considered bad form get paid as a consultant for oil companies hoping for contracts that you are overseeing)

• Chris Edmonds Says Oil Prices Could Spike to $80 in 2007 (Video)

Media

• How Much Should Be Shown of a Hanging? In the NYT, Network Executives Wonder and Wait. The Washington Post has partial video of the hanging. Meanwhile, you just know this will eventually show up on either YouTube or Rotten. (Much more below under War/Politics). Here's a slightly skewed perspective on Saddam's execution (NSFW).

UPDATE: Video footage is here.

• US funds the Taliban? Israel & Iran hold secret talks? The Top Ten Stories You Missed in 2006

• WSJ.com's Best Read of 2006 (free)

• Dow Jones Chairman Peter Kann lists "10 current trends in the mass media that ought to disturb us". "Too many instant celebrities, too many two-day crises, too many 'defining moments' from people in search of instant history: The Power of the Press

Speaking of which: the WSJ OpEd continues not to get blogs (or a whole lot else): Journalists, Heal Thyselves

• Macaca, Menaissance, Herstory, Global Warming Denier: The Top Politically inCorrect Words for 2006

• The Best Sports Columns of 2006

• BBC: Photos of the year 2006

• 100 things we didn't know last year

• War & Politics
"They said you was hung."
"And they was right."
Thus ends the saga of Saddam Hussein: dictator, madman, tyrant, collector of miniature antique doll houses. News reports poured in from all over:

• The Associated Press assembled comments on Saddam's execution from leaders from around the world -- most of whom had a bigger problem with the Death Penalty as opposed to Saddam. In Iraq, the response was a mixture of Fear, indifference, jubilation over death; CNN also noted Iraqis react with joy, anger to Hussein death sentence; Iran rejoiced, Saddam's supporters were bitter. The Voice of America's report was here; The NYT's obit is here: The Defiant Despot Oppressed Iraq for More Than 30 Years; The Washington Post's is here Saddam Hussein Is Put to Death;

• Even with Saddam gone, Iraq remains an unfortunate quagmire. Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo gives a bleak view of what it means.

• Interesting connections between Presidents Gerald Ford and George W. Bush: Ford Aides Shape Bush Tenure

• Bloomberg: US has the World's `Worst' Visa System; It Scares Business Away

• For the first time, more troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war than approve of it.(Barely 1/3 of service members approve) Poll: More troops unhappy with Bush’s course in Iraq

• Wired Magazine: The Bush Era Draws to a Close

Technology & Science

• Debate: Is 'Web 2.0' Another Bubble?

• Walt Mossberg's video on High Def DVRs (see also The HDTV Dilemma: Pay for TiVo's Recorder Or Settle for Cable's?)

• This one goes straight into the WTF file: HOW OLD IS THE GRAND CANYON? PARK SERVICE WON’T SAY — Orders to Cater to Creationists Makes National Park Agnostic on Geology.

• That didn't take long: Security Flaws Are Detected in Microsoft’s Vista

• Business 2.0: How to Succeed in 2007

• Founder of Wikipedia plans search engine to rival Google

• Ever wonder why you can't get iPods at a discount?

• Giant plant-eating dinosaur unearthed (The biggest ever?)

• Via kottke comes this list of free addictive little web games (WARNING: these are giant time sucks)

• ABC's Top 5 YouTube videos of the year

Music Books Movies TV Fun!

• RIP James Brown, Godfather of Soul: Some of his more important recordings are discussed here; My friend Rob tells the story of how JB saved his bacon in grade school in Reflections on James Brown (very amusing!)

• Oh Holy Night New Orleans Style Fabulous version from NBC's Studio 60

• The extended weekend will give me time to get to Ken Fisher's The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't

• We previously noted John Hodgman's book The Areas of My Expertise. The entire book is now available for free at the iTunes Music Store (amusing as all hell).

• The Mega-Meta-list: The one page that aggregates all of 2006 lists

• If you plan on having a drink (or 3) on New Year's Eve, consider these suggestions:
-The Wines that earned the coveted Delicious!' rating from the WSJ in 2006 (free)
- The Most Expensive Champagnes 2006
- The [Your Name Here]-Tini
- The Wine Spectator's Top 100 for 2006
• Take a Quiz: A Year to Remember (pop up)

• The NYPost, in their inimitable way, note that the DVD-ISASTERFORMAT HAS PEAKED - THAT'S BAD NEWS FOR STUDIOS

• Performers who Take the Stage at Midnight: Some of history's landmark live performances took place on past Dec. 31sts, but midnight can also be a letdown.

• Pitchfork: Top 50 Albums of 2006

• Impossible shots and Play of the Day

• Saddam Hussein escaped!

That's all from what remains a very temperate weekend in the NorthEast, where no white Christmas, New Years, or President's Day appears to be in the forercast!

Have a safe and happy New Year's Eve, and a prosperous and healthy New Year's !

The Daunting Overhang of Unsold Houses

Sunday, December 31, 2006 | 06:49 AM

in Data Analysis | Economy | Real Estate

One would have thought that after the Frontline piece, we'd give Real Estate a rest for a while. But no, we can't leave well enough alone, and feel compelled to add to the discussion on the perennial housing bottom callers.

We have mentioned the cancellation factor before, but lets put it into some context. Consider the following from Doug Kass (via Barron's):

"THERE ARE, TO BE SURE, STARK DIFFERENCES between 2000 and 2007, and we hesitate to pound the comparisons to the point where you're left with the impression that we expect the new year to be a carbon copy of 2000. We don't . . .

The sharpest contrast is that the greatest housing surge in memory was just picking up momentum in 2000, while the most severe crack in housing in memory is, if anything, worsening. Yes, we're quite aware that there has been an uptick in some of the recent numbers on home sales and the like and, faint as it is, it has prompted talk of a bottom. But not in our house . . .

Investors and homeowners alike might pay less heed to every squiggle and gossamer indication of improvement and more to the reality on the ground as manifest in continuing price weakness and a dauntingly huge overhang of unsold houses . . .

One interesting light Doug Kass sheds on the supposed modest increase in new home sales, for example, is that the Census Bureau does not adjust for cancellations in its compilation of house sales, which in a soft market like this one not only overstates sales, but understates inventory.

Usually, cancellations run only about 15% of orders for publicly owned home builders. However, cancellations have soared this year. And Doug thoughtfully sent along the third-quarter rate for each of the leading home builders. Here they are: Centex (ticker: CTX), 37%; DR Horton (DHI), 40%; KB Home (KBH), 53%; Lennar (LEN), 31%; Pulte Homes (PHM), 36%; Beazer (BZH), 57%; Hovnanian (HOV), 35%; MDC Holdings (MDC), 49%; and Standard Pacific (SPF), 50%."

Since a picture is worth a 1000 words, rather than just rely on the above excerpt, let's go to the graphs, courtesy of Calculated Risk:

As chart 1 shows, the past 2 years saw sales falling month over month since August. Year-over-year sales declines accelerated throughout most of 2006:

Existing-Home Sales
click for larger graphs

Chart 2 reveals that whatever drop off there was in exisiting homes was minor, and it hardly impacted the total overhang:

Inventory Reduction? Hardly!
Existing Homes Sales Inventory

Chart 3 shows is a different view of the same data: its the total months of supply. Again, we see visually that the change in the total number of exisiting homes was hardly noticeable:

A Significant Supply Reduction?
Months Supply, Existing Homes

Lastly, Calculated Risk pokes wholes in the inventory "drop" nonsense: Over the past 3 years, the typical seasonal pattern is for homeowners to take their homes off the market for the holidays. Inventories have dropped as much as 10% in past Decembers. Here are the 3 most recent inventory declines:

Nov-03 2,530,000
Dec-03 2,300,000
Jan-04 2,200,000
Nov to Dec Decline: 9.1%

Nov-04 2,480,000
Dec-04 2,214,000
Jan-05 2,147,000
Nov to Dec Decline: 10.7%

Of course this year inventories barely declined and actually rose in January:

Nov-05 2,924,000
Dec-05 2,846,000
Jan-06 2,883,000
Nov to Dec Decline: 2.7%

Currently inventories are at 3.82 million. If inventories follow normal patterns, they should see a 10% drop to 3.45 million. Unless they stay elevated, as happened in Dec 2005.

Significant Inventory declines? Housing Bottoms? What are these people smoking?

Sources:
Sore Winners
ALAN ABELSON
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
MONDAY, JANUARY 1, 2007
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB116744038394263068.html

November Existing Home Sales
Calculated Risk, Thursday, December 28, 2006
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/12/november-existing-home-sales.html

Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy

Saturday, December 30, 2006 | 12:30 PM

John Mauldin took the weekend off, so I offered up the most recent Market Commentary from RR&A as a guest piece: Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy.

It is a dissertation that puts the real estate boom into some context:

Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy
The Backwards Cycle
The Economy Drives Real Estate, or Vice Versa?
Where the Real Money is: Consumer Spending
Slowing Housing Market and the Economy

It a fairly comprehensive analysis, laden with charts and statistics, many you may not have seen before.

Its a 4 day weekend, so you have plenty of time to sift through it. (So far the feedback has been rather kind).

Enjoy.

Delusional Raging Bulls ?

Saturday, December 30, 2006 | 09:18 AM

in Markets | Psychology/Sentiment | Technical Analysis

This seems to be an ongoing sentiment debate we've been having for too long: How Bullish is the investor community really? We've looked at this repeatedly (here and here most recently) over the past few months.

In Sore Winners, Barron's Alan Abelson answers the quesion with one word: Very:

"What strikes us about the current investment scene is how defensive, even delusional, the raging bulls are. And despite rolling in the long green by grace of the big market year, what a bunch of sore winners they are, insistent that everyone else is bearish and only they, brave souls, have the courage to be optimistic.

What hokum! For the fact is everyone's bearish except the mutual funds (whose motto is "cash is trash") and the hedge funds and the private equity funds, traders of every stripe including the racy types who trade futures and options (the Market Vane and Consensus Index surveys: both 70% or higher bullish), Joe Doaks and Jane Q. Public, investment advisers (Investors Intelligence: 56.5% bulls, 19.6% bears) and brokerage house strategists (for whom "sell" is a four-letter word). Did we leave out anyone?-oh yes, and the occasional tourist from Mars.

If everybody's so darn bearish, pray tell, who has been buying stocks like there's no tomorrow the past couple of months? Or are they a new breed of masochistic bears that gets their kicks from buying stocks because they just know the market is doomed to tank?

All of which gives us a strong sensation of déjà vu and, more particularly, why this glorious new year of 2007 seems so much like the not-so-glorious year of 2000. As we remember, 2000 began amid enormous euphoria, with the stock market headed for the moon. While the rationalizations at the time from the good-cheer incorrigibles of why the market was neither pricey or risky differed from the current versions of why the market is, if anything, undervalued, the reasoning is as flawed now as it was then.

As we also remember, 2000 ended in tears and tears that kept flowing for a long couple of years. So keep a generous store of hankies at the ready and hope the denouement to the current manic mood doesn't do quite as much damage to your psyches, let alone your pocketbooks. We were about to say, Happy New Year!, but maybe we'll wait for a more propitious juxtaposition to do so."

That first paragraph is a keeper . . . Say whay you might about Abelson -- the boy can sure write.

Source:
Sore Winners
ALAN ABELSON
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET
MONDAY, JANUARY 1, 2007
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB116744038394263068.html

Norah Jones: Not Too Late

Friday, December 29, 2006 | 04:00 PM

in Digital Media | Music

An end of year Happy New Year tune: Norah Jones

In January, she has a new release coming out: Not Too Late

Click for video

Here's a stunner: She is the #3 on the Amazon all time best seller list . . .

BP Visitors

Friday, December 29, 2006 | 01:30 PM

in Weblogs

This is pretty cool -- here's where the last 100 readers came from: It turns out that the Big Picture readership is pretty global . . .

The Big Picture Recent Visitors World Map
click to refresh

via Sitemeter

ICSC Retail Sales Data

Friday, December 29, 2006 | 11:30 AM

in Consumer Spending | Economy | Psychology/Sentiment | Retail

Here's some data Cherry Picking on my part: yet another intriguing piece of Retail Sales data, from the ICSC:

"Chain store sales finished the “first phase” of the holiday shopping season (the pre-Christmas Day part) with a very mixed performance. There were pockets of strength, pockets of weakness, shifts in where spending occurred (online/in-store), shifts in the shares of spending on gift certificates/merchandise, a heavily discounted season (though largely planned), late consumer shopping, warm weather bouts paring seasonal demand and calendar issues affecting perceptions of strength."

Bill King notes "this amounts to an sales increase (pre-Christmas ) of just 1.7% y/y. This is far less than the 22.5% espoused by ShopperTrak."

Note that this is in Nominal dollars, implying that chain stores may have actually seen a sales decrease in Real Dollars:

"Although there is still one more week left in the December reporting period, comp-store sales for the five-week fiscal month of December—which will be reported on January 4, 2007—appear on-track for the low-end of our monthly range (2.5-3.5%) and as a result on the low-end of our range (2.5-3.0%) for the two-month November-December season . . .

Chain store sales rose by 2.5% in November, based on ICSC's tally of 59 retail chains, and are expected to grow by about the same pace in December."

The one bright spot remains gift cards/post holiday shopping:

"With nearly one-in-five (18%) consumers who said they planned to shop on the day after Christmas (which was not significantly different from the 19% reporting that they shopped on December 26, 2005 when it was a federal holiday), the last week of the fiscal month might exceed modest expectations as consumers redeem those holiday gift cards and shop for the bargains on clearance."

YMMV . . .

Source:
Latest Week's Sales Snapshot ICSC-UBS Weekly
International Council of Shopping Centers,
ICSC, December 27, 2006, 7:45 AM (ET)
http://holiday.icsc.org/2006/press/124.pdf

Housing Bottoming ?

Friday, December 29, 2006 | 07:33 AM

in Data Analysis | Economy | Real Estate

Some of the recent Housing data has been "encouraging:"

• Sales for existing homes rose in November for the second straight month;
• New single-family homes rose 3.4% in November (seasonally adjusted), following a 3.8 percent decline in October;
• Inventory backlog declined to a 6.3-month supply in November (from 6.7-months);
• The 4 week average MBA purchase index has risen 12% since August.

However, it may be a bit premature to declare that housing has bottomed just yet. In addition to so many bottom pickers (the sheer number all but gurantees they will be wrong), the historical data simply doesn't support so early an end to the downturn. I have a monster piece coming out on this very subject soon, contextualizing the rise and fall of housing this economic cycle. But until then, let's consider a few details.

First, this is rather early in the traditional Housing cycle. According to research of out of Goldman Sachs, the past three cyclical declines (since 1960) saw New Home Sales dropping by over 50% on average. This fall off has occurred over a 26-53 month period.

Where are we now in comparison? Consider that the statistical top in housing activity was only 15 months ago (July/August 2005); Housing starts are off by "only 20%" year-over-year. This suggests we could still be very early in the downturn --at least relative to the prior housing cycles. And, we are still near 15-year highs in terms of existing home inventory, and 13 year lows in home affordability. That suggests more price decreases to come.

We've discussed the new home cancellation factor also, running as high as 30-40% amongst some builders. (See: Home Buyers Back Out Of Deals in Record Numbers) Commerce does not report the cancellations, meaning sales are over reported and inventory under reported. This suggests the initial sales and inventory data will be revised.

Even more significant, the new permits, a gauge of future activity, has dropped off a cliff. That will help the inventory situation, but it implies a further dramatic slowing in activity into 2007.

With only 3 cycles as a frame of reference, there is no guarantee that the present housing boom and bust will fit neatly into these same parameters. But given the magnitude of the expansion, it would be surprising to see a mere year and half slowdown. We could very well be early in the Housing downturn in terms of both duration and depth.

One last thought on a related note: (apologies for the name drop)

I was chatting with the CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate in the green room of Kudlow this week. In addition to pointing out this remains the 3rd best year on record, he revealed a lot of common sense with this statement: (I am paraphrasing) "Price your house at a reasonable level and it will sell quickly. Overprice it, or assume its still 2005, and it won't move. Houses get stale, and pricing it wrong to begin with is a guaranteed way not to sell it . . .

Sources:
End of Housing Slump Seems to Be Drawing Near
Signs of Stability Emerge In Mortgages, Home Sales,
Buoying Economic Prospects
CHRISTOPHER CONKEY
WSJ, December 28, 2006; Page A3
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116722992975360513.html

Home Sales Rose 3.4% Last Month
JEREMY W. PETERS
NYT December 28, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/28/business/28econ.html

Homeowners Cut Prices, Drawing Some Buyers Back
JEREMY W. PETERS
NYT December 29, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/29/business/29econ.html

Mortgage Applications Index Rose 11.4%
Courtney Schlisserman
Bloomberg, Dec. 13 2006
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aV3Q_746Iayc

Peter Gabriel - Solsbury Hill

Thursday, December 28, 2006 | 07:45 PM

in Music

One of my favorites:

I was a huge Genesis fan, saw them live outdoors in Forest Hills years ago (check out The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway, amongst others), and continued with Peter Gabriel long after -- he was the creative force behind the band, and he continues to be a unique original to this day. He still puts on a great live show, check out any of the concert DVDs -- Growing Up Live is ~10 bucks; Secret World Live and Still Growing Up are both excellent).

Not many artists will name their first 3 solo releases eponymously. In order, they are:

Peter Gabriel
Peter Gabriel
Peter Gabriel

Also worth checking out are Security and So

St. Louis Fed's Monetary Trends

Thursday, December 28, 2006 | 01:30 PM

in Economy | Federal Reserve | Fixed Income/Interest Rates | Inflation

Every month, the St. Louis Fed puts out their monthly book of charts. They cover lots of great stuff:

Monetary and Financial Indicators at a Glance
Monetary Aggregates and Their Components
Monetary Aggregates: Monthly Growth
Reserves Markets and Short-Term Credit Flows
Measures of Expected Inflation
Interest Rates
Policy-Based Inflation Indicators
Implied Forward Rates, Futures Contracts, and Inflation-Indexed Securities
Velocity, Gross Domestic Product, and M2
Bank Credit
Stock Market Index and Foreign Inflation and Interest Rates

Its a great source of lots of good things, all in one place. If you don't have access to a Bloomberg terminal at the moment, you might otherwise have to search around to find all of these.

Source:
Monetary Trends
St. Louis Fed, January 2007
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20070101/mtpub.pdf

Truck Tonnage Plummets

Thursday, December 28, 2006 | 10:55 AM

in Economy

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted for-hire Truck Tonnage Index plunged 3.6 percent in November after falling 1.9 percent in October.

Its no surprise that Transports have been so weak; This is also consistent with a ho-hum holiday shopping season.

From the ATA:

“On a seasonally adjusted basis, the tonnage index fell to 106.8 (2000=100) from 110.8 in October, which is the lowest level since late 2003. The index decreased 8.8 percent compared with a year earlier, marking the largest year-over-year decrease since December 2000. Year-to-date, the truck tonnage index was down 2.8 percent, compared with the same period in 2005. The not seasonally adjusted index decreased 9.5 percent from October to 106.5. . .

November 2006 marked the single worst month for for-hire truck tonnage since the last recession,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Both the month-to-month and year-over-year decreases indicate that the economic slowdown is in full gear. The most troubling number is the 8.8 percent contraction from November 2005, despite the fact that year-over-year comparisons are difficult due to the very robust volumes during the same month last year. One month certainly doesn’t make a trend, but if we continue to see year-over-year reductions of similar magnitudes in the next couple of months, it could indicate a greater economic slowdown than economists are projecting at this point.”

Goldilocks My Arse!

Source:
ATA Truck Tonnage Index Plummeted 3.6 percent in November
American Trucking Associations
Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2006
http://tinyurl.com/yzuynr

Nasdaq Trend Break

Thursday, December 28, 2006 | 06:51 AM

in Investing | Markets | Technical Analysis

I started out in this business as a trader, and one of the first rules they teach you is "the Trend is your friend."

I was a decent trader, but always curious as to why this or that was happening. When the opportunity arose to explore these issues on the research side (many years ago), I jumped on it.

One of the more difficult aspects of transitioning from gunner to macro strategist is reconciling the short term technical aspects of the market (1-3-6 months) with the longer term macro environment. Since July, we have seen a decaying macro picture concurrent with a strong market trend. If you follow both, it can make you schizoid.

As a Trader, you don't care about the macro -- your timescale and benchmarks are much shorter. If you are an Economist or Equity Strategist, you are not supposed to care about the shorter term trend.

I try to use both disciplines. If I ignored the trend, then based on the macro picture, I would be totally short -- and getting killed. If I ignored the decaying macro, then I would be leveraged totally long -- and likely to get slaughtered sometime in the future.

Which leads us to today's ~~Word~~ chart: The SPX and the Dow remain firmly in their trend channels, in place since July. Nasdaq, on the other hand, has broken its trend. That implies increasing potential near term for downside in the NDX.

Note also that yesterday was the last day for Mutual funds to make purchases that will show up on their books for 2006 (T+3). Wednesdays trades will clear by Friday; Anything bought today or tomorrow will not clear until 2007.

SPX & Nasdaq, Equivolume Chart, 6 Months

chart courtesy of Dick Arms

Note: Expect the markets to be closed -- either a whole or half day -- for President Ford's funeral service likely to be Tuesday.

Source:
Uptrend Hangs by a Thread
Dick Arms
RealMoney.com, 12/27/2006 9:09 AM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/technicalanalysis/10329707.html

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (12/27/06)

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | 03:30 PM

in Media

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;

Back in the studio tonite, at 5:30 - 6pm. The topics will include THIS, as well as the market rally, Holiday Retail Sales activity, New Housing data, and of course, other more amusing economic data.

Guests include the forthright John Rutledge, and Art Laffer and Jim Huguet (author of Great Companies, Great Returns).

UPDATE: December 27, 2006 7:20pm

A classic example of "leaving it in the locker room." No only did I only get in two wishy washy sentences, but the best stuff came during the commercial breaks between segments.

We went over the long and short sectors, individual names, and nothing made it on the air.

Best line: the day I throw in the towel and flip Bullish, is the day you want to shor tthis market to all hell.

Better luck next year

A few random thoughts about these items:

1) Its the last week of the year, volume is thin, and mutual fund are having some fun.

2) November's new sales numbers are encouraging, but recall just how subject to revision this data is:

The Census Bureau counts a house as sold when the contract is signed. If a buyer cancels the contract, however, Census does not readjust the numbers. Thus, sales are overstated -- and inventories understated -- for the month the house is initially sold. (And when that house is sold, the reverse happens).

Note that the homebuilders have been reporting cancellations in the 30%+ area -- you can see why these initial numbers are suspect.

3) The sharp 15.6% drop in mortgage applications reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association for purchase loan applications confirm implies that new Home Sales may be overstated. Wait for the revised New Home data.

4) Lastly, the following email comes to us via a Lennar sales person -- note that these homes are being sold, with add-ons, at greatly reduced prices, and in some cases, at a loss (click for email)

Continue reading "Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (12/27/06)"

The State of the Consumer, by the Numbers

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | 11:45 AM

in Consumer Spending | Economy | Inflation | Real Estate

Given our focus today on Retail sales this week, it is appropriate to reference another source of data on the consumer.

This commentary comes to us via Northern Trust's Paul Kasriel. Paul is the Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research at NT, and I had the pleasure of meeting him (and Caroline Baum) at Bloomberg last month. He is the recipient of the 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting Accuracy.

His recent commentary focused on the Fed's Flow-of-Funds data. It is rather insightful work into consumer debt and savings. Some of it might be a bit beyond the interest of many readers, so to make it more accessible, I did a little slicing and dicing. Here is my highly edited version, emphasizing The State of Consumer, by the Numbers:

~~~

Kasriel: I love the Fed's quarterly flow-of-funds report. It usually is the mother lode of enlightening economic nuggets of information. And the Fed's latest release on December 7 of third-quarter data was rich with these nuggets.

The slowdown in borrowing was due principally to the household sector: Chart 2 shows that after hitting a post-WWII high of 14.6% in Q3:2005, household borrowing relative to disposable personal income (DPI) dropped to 8.8% in Q3:2006 - the lowest since 7.6% in Q3:2001, when the economy was in a recession.

Notice in Chart 2 that precipitous declines in this percentage tend to be followed by the onset of economic recessions (indicated by the shaded areas in the chart).

Continue reading "The State of the Consumer, by the Numbers"

Retail follow up

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | 09:15 AM

in Consumer Spending | Economy | Inflation | Retail

Prior to Thanksgiving, I made my holiday shopping forecast:

"I am looking for a gain in holiday sales (year over year) that are 2.5 - 3.5% over 2005. This is comparable (only slightly softer) than last year's holiday gains. Last year, our forecast was for 3-4%, and the final number was 3.5%."

While these numbers may be revised further, the initial tally is now in: Holiday sales increased 3%, dead center of our range. Not only is this a decrease from 2005, but note that it is reported in nominal (pre-inflation) terms. With inflation about 3%, this means that Real sales (after-inflation) were flat year over year.

Here's the recent headlines:

WSJ: A Luckluster Last Weekend;

NYT: Rush at End, but Sales Fall Short;

Bloomberg: U.S. Holiday Sales Increase 3%, Less Than in 2005

NBC: Weekend Sales Fall Below Projections;

Business Week: Retail Results Signal Tough Times Ahead;

CNN: Last-minute shopping surge comes up short;

AP: Shoppers dash retailers' hopes.

As we warned in Canary in a Coal Mine, the consumer has begun to show clear signs of tiring. They are not ready to roll over and stop shopping, but they will very likely be reducing their consumption in the near future.

Seasons greetings . . .

S&P 500 2% Correction?

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 | 05:51 AM

in Markets | Psychology/Sentiment | Technical Analysis

Marketbeat notes: "The market has reached a point where the word “correction” has seemingly lost all meaning — because the most marginal of declines is referred to as such. Bianco Research points out that the S&P 500 has not declined by 2% since July 13 — the second longest-period without a 2% correction since 1964. “Only the 1995 period saw a longer string of days without a 2% correction,” they write, noting that a 2% decline really isn’t a correction in the first place, just noise."

Prior to yesterday's light volume holiday volume rally, in December, the SPX had sagged about 1.14%.

Jim Bianco observes: “As the table above shows, the S&P 500 has not declined 2% since July 13 (currently we are seeing the third decline of more than 1% during this period). This string of 162 (actual) days is the second longest period of no 2% correction since 1964. Only the 1995 period saw a longer string of days without a 2% correction.”

A further interesting observation via Bill King: The current rally is the weakest one in the above table.

Let's consider the context of each 7 rallys: The 1928 rally saw its first 2% correction late in a 10 year Bull move, coming 10 months before the peak; The rallies in the '50s and '60s (1953, '58, '61 and '64) were in the middle of the post WWII secular bull market; The 1994-95 move was also mid-secular Bull run, also benefitting from the 1995 soft landing.

How aberrational is the present run compared with these prior moves? With only 7 examples, the sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions. But it does raise some very interesting questions:

-Is this long non-corrective phase signaling a 1995-type soft landing? or

-Are we in the middle of a secular bull market, after only 3 years of a secular Bear market (2000-03)? or

-If this is the weakest such rally, might it have further to run? or

-Is this rally (called unnatural by some) truly unusual?

I am unsure of the answers -- but this data certainly raises some very interesting and curious questions . . .

Sources:

Bianco Research

The King Report

Correction? We Are Not Familiar With This Phrase, ‘Correction’
David Gaffen
WSJ Marketbeat, December 26, 2006, 2:39 pm
http://tinyurl.com/ybphdy