The Big Picture | February 2007

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StandUp Economist: 10 Principles of Macro-Economics

Wednesday, February 28, 2007 | 05:42 PM

Mankiw's 10 principles of economics, translated for the uninitiated. Presented at the AAAS humor session, February 16, 2007.

Transcript and additional details can be found here.

Print version:

Mankiw’s Principles

#1. People face tradeoffs.
#2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it.
#3. Rational people think at the margin.
#4. People respond to incentives.
#5. Trade can make everyone better off.
#6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity.
#7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes.
#8. A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.
#9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money.
#10. Society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.

------------------------------------------------------------

Translations

#1. Choices are bad.
#2. Choices are really bad.
#3. People are stupid.
#4. People aren’t that stupid.
#5. Trade can make everyone worse off.
#6. Governments are stupid.
#7. Governments aren’t that stupid.
#8. Blah blah blah.
#9. Blah blah blah.
#10. Blah blah blah.

------------------------------------------------------------

via Stand Up Economist

Market Events & the Blogosphere

Wednesday, February 28, 2007 | 09:10 AM

in Digital Media | Financial Press | Weblogs

I'm heading into the office, so I won't get to GDP until later today. I wanted to get to a comment in a post last night that asked "How big was spike in site traffic today?"

That's a fascinating question, and it raises all sorts of interesting issues: What is the role of blogs in reporting/commenting on fast breaking news events, what does this mean for the role of the mainstream media, is this a significant realignment, etc.

To answer the initial question: Traffic went up about 80% as compared to our typical weekday, and up about 50% relative to the past 5 weekdays. Between 15-20k individuals swing by here most work days, and these folks view about 25k pages. Yesterday, about 31k people came buy and looked at almost 46,000 pages. (You can play with the various ways of depicting stats over at sitemeter).

Weekly Unique Visitors and Page Views

Monthly Unique Visitors and Page Views

As far as the MSM is concerned, there are numerous ways to intepret this. On the one hand, many readers rely on blogs as a filter for the MSM: I don't buy into the argument that blogs make the media redundant; My sense is that many readers think: Show me what I need to see, and save me the time of sifting thru 100s of other sources. A post like this morn's Around the World in 24 Hours is just that sort of overview. For many news consumers, media is important, with blogs acting as a filter/redirector.

Yet at the same time, most of the generation born after the 1987 crash doesn't like to get ink on their hands. They get nearly all of their news from the web, and almost never touch a physical paper.

I don't reach any major conclusions on this, other than noting the MSM needs to stay interactive to remain relevant to its future consumers. Media is clearly in a period of transition, and how they handle it will determine how relevant -- and profitable -- they will be in the future . . .

UPDATE: February 28, 2007 10:29am

Most of the market related blogs are reporting a 50% in traffic yesterday, with several noting all time page view highs . . .

Around the World in 24 Hours

Wednesday, February 28, 2007 | 04:48 AM

in Data Analysis | Investing | Markets

Three interesting follow ups to Tuesday's messy trading:

First off, computer errors didn't cause the sell off -- they only delayed the reporting of the trades.

If anything, these delays made the sell off look more orderly than it really was. Contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, the glitch only made the selloff look more mild (orderly and less severe) until it turned more wild as the delays spooled out and unwound. I have seen several early news reports and comments that got this exactly ass backwards.

Anyone who will uses this as a false excuse for Tuesday is a weasel.

The graphic below does a very good job explaining the situation:

Chart courtesy of WSJ

Secondly -- and this is more along the lines of our earlier "Don't Blame China" discussion, go check out the interactive map at the WSJ (its free).

Scroll over any country, and you get their Bourse performance for Feb 27th.

click for interactive global bourse map

Map courtesy of WSJ

If China was the root cause, why was most of the Pacific Rim down so mildly?

Malaysia and Singapore got tagged pretty good, but the rest of Asia was off between 0.5% and 1.5%. Korea and Japan, arguably the most important countries economical in the region with China, were down mildly.

If China was to blame, why then such a mild response in her own backyard? Here are the closing numbers for 2/27, with China down 8.8%:

Australia -0.74%
Hong Kong -1.76%
India -1.25%
Indonesia -1.12%
Japan -0.52%
Malaysia -3.09%
Pakistan -0.14%
Philippines -1.44%
Singapore -2.29%
S.Korea -1.05%
Sri Lanka -0.53%
Taiwan 0.02%
Thailand -0.69%

Note that the European countries were down much worse than Asia -- particularly after the US economic data was released. Most European Bourses opend down 1% to 2%, and then saw their selling accelerate after 8:30 US time.

Lastly, note that Japan opened down 700 points on 2.28.07. Did it take them 24 hours to figure out what happened in China, or might it have been intervening events?

click for live Nikkei chart

Map courtesy of Yahoo!

Lastly, check out the Asian markets as of 2/28/07. As of late last night, they were pretty ugly

click for updated prices:

Table courtesy of WSJ

Sources:
After a Rough Morning, A Data Backup Jolts The Blue-Chip Average
SCOTT PATTERSON, AARON LUCCHETTI and RANDALL SMITH
WSJ, February 28, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117262349120221401-
QAR8ZjefbQKCDP1fmvMZxf_CW7E_20080227.html?mod=blogs

SUDDEN RETREAT
Markets' Slide Spotlights Risks
Chinese Shares Tumble, And Investors Reassess
U.S. Economic Outlook Fleeing to Safe Treasurys
E.S. BROWNING and CRAIG KARMIN in New York, and JAMES T. AREDDY in Shanghai
WSJ, February 28, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117262424948121390.html

Stocks Slide World-Wide
Global Map
WSJ, February 27, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-marketdrop0207.html

NIKKEI 225
Yahoo! Finance, Feb 27, 2007 10:58pm EST
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^n225;range=1d;
indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

Technorati Profile

Wednesday, February 28, 2007 | 12:06 AM

in Weblogs

Technorati Profile

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (2/27/07)

Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 04:15 PM

in Media

Back in the studio tonite, at 5:00 - 5:45pm.

The topics will include China, the global sell off, and the US market correction, the soon to be revised downwards GDP, and Q4 earnings.

The full show is on the Markets, and include a stellar collection of panelists: Herb Greenberg, Arthur Laffer, John Rutledge, Quentin Hardy, Robert Hormats, Lakshman Achuthan, Gary Shilling.

When I saw the futures this AM, I tagged the producer -- something I never do -- and said I've been Larry's whipping boy everytime there is a 100 point rally. Howabout some payback?

We will be going over some of the details of this.

UPDATE: February 27, 2007 10:59pm

Kudlow starts the show with the famous J.P. Morgan quote: Prices will fluctuate. I respond that we haven't seen much volatility, and prices have only moved in one direction for the past 8 months.

Larry corrects me, emphasizing the word "fluctuate."

My response:

"We got fluctuated pretty good today," thus ending my TV career . . .

Its not China, its the Economy (Stupid!)

Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 03:30 PM

NOTE: This Market Commentary alert was originally emailed to subscribers at Ritholtz Research & Analytics on Tues 2/27/2007 11:15 am;

This is posted here not as investing advice, but rather as an example of a trading call for potential subscribers. We expect to post future advisories in a similar manner -- after the call, but in the correct chronological location on the blog.

>>>

The consensus seems to be that "pressures by a big drop in the Chinese stock market" is behind today's market plunge. The Shanghai's Composite Index plummeted 9%, widely described as the "biggest decline in a decade."

Getting the blame? "Efforts by investors to cash in on big gains and avoid any government attempts to cool the markets." As a reminder, the Fed did not attempt to do the same in 1999 / 2000.

Now, why the drop in China's benchmark stock index on fears of increased margin requirements should impact the US or Europe is food for thought.

Quite frankly, I don't believe its that.

What's more likely is the growing recognition that inflation remains "worrisome," that growth is slowing, and that the sub-prime mortgage housing debacle will no longer remained "contained."

The market is fortunate that sentiment levels are only frothy, and not completely exuberant. Also potentially containing this pullback: The support levels for the Nasdaq 100 remain steady.

Two recent research pieces discuss these elements in detail: Our Sentiment Review, and the most recent update of the Nasdaq 100 Composite.

Both research pieces can be found at the site here.

Source: WSJ

UPDATE: February 27, 2007 12:30pm

Consider the following headlines, dominated by today's news:

• Freddie Mac to Tighten Subprime Rules -- (2.27)

See also: Video: Freddie Mac chairman and CEO Richard Syron discusses new subprime mortgage standards, which will be implemented September 2007.

• Orders for Durable Goods Tumble (2.27)
A key barometer of business-equipment spending -- orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- fell by 6.0%, after increasing 3.6% in December.

• No Worries: Banks Keeping Less Money in Reserve (2.27)
Every Dollar Set Aside Can Cut Into Profits

• Subprime Game's Reckoning Day (2.27)
Risky Lending Fallout Threatens to Spread;
Uncertain ARM Strength

• Home Lenders Cut the Flow of Risky Loans (2.26)
Default Fears Drain Subprime Pool, Adding To Pressures on Prices

• Mortgage Hot Potatoes (2.15)
Banks Try to Return High-Risk Loans To the Originators

• Default Jitters Batter Shares of Home Lenders (2.9)
Risky Mortgages Spark Concerns, Uncertainty About Fallout on Bonds

If you want to believe that some bureaucrat in China changing the margin requirements for local speculators as the cause of the US selloff, then go ahead.

Me? I prefer to believe what is right before my eyes: Decaying economic fundamentals, a complacent market that is overbought and way overdue for a correction. Add to that the single biggest positive contributor to the economy over the past 4 years – Housing – showing no signs of being anywhere near a bottom. A few more jiggles on the screen, and we there will be significant technical deterioration.

China? Yeah, I guess its China . . .

NYSE Collars Triggered

Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 01:50 PM

in Investing | Markets | Psychology/Sentiment

The move down through 180 points on the NYA (NYSE Comp) triggered the trading collars fro the first time in I don't know how long.

Here's the NYSE's infographic on the Circuit Breakers:

OK, trivia time: When was the last time these were triggered?

UPDATE February 27, 2007 2:58pm

A retail broker with a tendency to panic just sent this to our office.

Play Sound.mpg

(I don't know him well enough to say whether or not this is a contrary indicator).

Fear and Greed In Markets

Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 09:10 AM

in Markets | Psychology/Sentiment

We have mentioned the astute work of James Montier previously, and suggested his Fear & Greed index should replace Citibank's silly Euphoria measure in Barron's Trader column.

Montier is a research analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort in London, and is the author of Behavioural Finance: A User's Guide. There is a good biographical sketch of Montier as an iconoclast/maverick here.

Recently, his F&G Index hit an all-time high. This was noted as yet more evidence that ” investors’ euphoria is truly out of control.” Of course, he wryly adds, “this warning is likely to be about as effective as yelling ‘cliff-edge’ to a herd of thundering lemmings.”

Marketbeat noted a few details of this sentiment index:

"The F&G index, compiled by Dresdner Kleinwort, is a risk-adjusted price momentum measure comparing global equities (as gauged by the MSCI World Index) to global bonds (represented by J.P. Morgan Chase’s index). The gauge has typically traded between +1 and -2 since its inception in 1986 — but was as low as -3 just four years ago, a sign that “the end of the world is nigh,” and therefore a time to buy stocks and sell bonds. But as the market has turned upward in recent years, the index has shot up above +2 into the “irrational exuberance” area, a sign to sell equities and buy bonds.

Still, he suggests that “the prudent investor should be shipping out beta and junk, and buying quality defensives.” Even better, Mr. Montier says, “holding cash seems like a good idea,” noting that U.S. mutual funds currently have a mere 3% to 4% in cash. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, he says, “holding cash is painful, but not as painful as doing something stupid.”

Note that this tends to be an early warning system, and is not a precise (hours, days) timing measure. Think of it as a 90 day warning of trouble potenitally heading your way.

Source:
Fear and Greed In Markets
David Gaffen
WSJ, February 22, 2007, 3:26 pm
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2007/02/22/fear-and-greed-in-markets/

Asian Markets' Closing Prices

Tuesday, February 27, 2007 | 06:49 AM

in Investing | Markets | Psychology/Sentiment

China's main stock market is under pressure this morning; We should expect some spillover across Asian Markets, Europe and the US.

The WSJ observed:

"Shanghai's benchmark stock index plunged nearly 9% on Tuesday, its biggest drop in more than 10 years, as investors unloaded shares to lock in profits after recent gains. Asian-Pacific markets ended mostly lower.

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 8.8% to close at 2771.79, its biggest single-day decline since it fell 9.4% on Feb. 18, 1997, just after the death of Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping. The Shanghai index had gained 1.4% on Monday to 3040.60, extending a spate of record high closes."

Here are the closing prices throughout most of Asia and the Pacific Rim:

ASIA MARKETS




	PRICE	CHG	%CHG

Australia	5977.60	-44.30	-0.74%

Hong Kong	20147.87	-360.08	-1.76%

India	13478.83	-170.69	-1.25%

Indonesia	1764.01	-19.94	-1.12%

Japan	18119.92	-95.43	-0.52%

Malaysia	234.67	-7.48	-3.09%

Pakistan	11378.02	-15.67	-0.14%

Philippines	3331.29	-48.71	-1.44%

Singapore	3232.02	-75.90	-2.29%

S.Korea	1454.60	-15.43	-1.05%

Sri Lanka	2996.49	-15.83	-0.53%

Taiwan	7901.96	1.76	0.02%

Thailand	683.95	-4.75	-0.69%


	Sources: Dow Jones, Reuters

Source:
China's Market Slides Nearly 9%;
Regional Indexes End Mostly Lower
CHRIS OLIVER
WSJ, February 27, 2007 5:52 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117254549199120257.html?

GM Chrysler Deal

Monday, February 26, 2007 | 05:28 PM

in Corporate Management | Economy

This sums up my feelings on the proposed deal precisely:

Daryl Cagle via Welling@Weedon

Reuters/CRB Futures Index

Monday, February 26, 2007 | 02:00 PM

in Commodities | Technical Analysis

Fascinating chart, via Jeff Saut:

Reuters/CRB Futures Index

Jeff notes the combined impact of Liquidity and Risk Appetite on the markets:

"Lastly, we believe liquidity certainly plays a role and currently the U.S. monetary base is exploding. Moreover, it is not just our money supply that is surging but Australia’s (+13% year-over-year), England’s (+13%), the Euro Zone’s (+9.3%), Korea’s (+10.3%), China’s (+16.9%), etc.

Yet as we have suggested, while liquidity is unquestionably a driver of asset classes, if investors are unwilling to take that liquidity and buy something with it asset classes go nowhere. Manifestly, you can throw all the liquidity you want at the markets and if investors have no “risk appetite” they will merely take said liquidity and stuff it in a money market fund.

We, therefore, have argued that investors’ risk appetite is the ultimate driver of asset prices and after the nearly unprecedented rally from July 2006 to February 2007, participants’ risk appetites are currently high. When this will change is unknowable, but change it will. Yet as Charlie concludes, “While we are in uncharted waters in this regard, no one can foresee a financial accident, much less know its timing.”

via Raymond James Investment Strategy

Quote of the Day

Monday, February 26, 2007 | 10:47 AM

in Economy | Federal Reserve

Given our earlier discussion of the former Fed Chair, today's Quote of the Day is particularly apt. It comes from Dresdner Kleinwort researcher Albert Edwards, who is also a former Bank of England employee. Edwards, apprently, is no friend of Easy Al:

“With the retirement of Alan Greenspan from the Fed, I really thought I could move on. It was hard work heaping scorn and ridicule on the man who had, in my view, presided over the most grotesque period of economic mismanagement in living memory. But why the indecent rush to cash in? Isn’t it obvious? He mightn’t have long before his Ponzi scheme collapses. Better cash in quickly before it does...

I still remember with acute embarrassment one client lunch, when an analyst colleague was presenting. Unfortunately, he inadvertently propelled some half eaten food across the table and it landed in the beard of a client who was sitting opposite. Luckily the client himself didn’t seem to notice, or maybe he was just too polite to say or do anything. So Alan, my advice is however much of a mess you think you are making, just keep on going and hope no-one notices. It will be no different then from the Fed really!”

Ouch! . . .

Hat tip: Bill King

Source:
DKW Research
Dresdner Kleinwort
http://www.dresdnerkleinwort.com/eng/research/index.php

Greenspan Forecasts Recession (Market Expected to Rally)

Monday, February 26, 2007 | 06:49 AM

in Economy | Federal Reserve | Psychology/Sentiment

Uh-oh: I read something today that all but pushed me into the Bullish camp, nearly cancelled my recession forecast, and almost made me revise my market prediction to Dow 16,000: Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan warned that the U.S. economy might slip into recession by the end of the year.

While we can disagree as to how good a Fed Chair Easy Al was -- he had a number of notable successes, i.e., LTCM and post Asian Contagion -- IMO he was too much like a bartender whose answer to nearly any problem was to pour another one.

However, there is little disagreement that economic forecasting was not his forté. We have noted in the past numerous examples of his lack of forecasting acumen.

That said, here is his economic commentary from this morn:

"Mr. Greenspan said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end. "When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign, for example in the U.S., profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle," he said. "While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 ... with some slowdown."

Mr. Greenspan said that while it would be "very precarious" to try to forecast that far into the future, he couldn't rule out the possibility of a recession late this year. He said he has seen no economic spillover effects from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market, and added that the global economy seems "benign and stable."

"We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing," Mr. Greenspan said.

U.S. housing starts are down "quite sharply," he said, which is "implicitly creating a reduction in the very high inventories of new unsold homes."

Its enough to make you want to buy SPX futures . . .

UPDATE: March 4, 2007, 9:42am

In today's NYT, Dan Gross has a column about the forecasting record of the Maestro and other dismal scientists:

"Indeed. No disrespect to Mr. Greenspan, but neither he nor the similarly numerate members of his professional fraternity have a particularly good record of forecasting recessions. As Yoram K. Bauman, an economist who teaches at the University of Washington and performs stand-up comedy, summed up an often-used line: “Macroeconomists have successfully predicted nine of the last five recessions.”

-The Forecast for the Forecasters Is Dismal
Dan Gross
NYT, March 4, 2007, 9:42am
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/04/business/yourmoney/04view.html

Source:
Greenspan Warns of Possible Recession
By SAI MAN
February 26, 2007 5:37 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117248024161519153.html

Traders' Top 10 Mistakes

Sunday, February 25, 2007 | 08:50 AM

in Trading

I like Jim Wyckoff's New Year's Resolutions; he notes if he follows these they can help him become a more profitable trader. Of course, "easier said than done." We've all violated these rules at one time or another.

He identifies 10 of the more prevalent mistakes traders make:

1. Failure to have a trading plan in place before a trade is executed. Without a specific plan, a trader does not know, among other things, when or where he will exit the trade or how much money may be made or lost.

2. Inadequate trading assets or improper money management. It does not take a fortune to trade the stock or futures markets successfully. Part of trading success boils down to proper money management and not gunning for those high-risk "home-run" type trades that involve too much capital at one time.

3. Expectations that are too high, too soon. Beginning traders who expect to quit their "day jobs" and make a good living trading in their first few years are usually disappointed. It takes hard work and perseverance to achieve success in any field of endeavor -- and trading is no different.

4. Failure to use protective stops. Using protective buy or sell stops upon entering a trade provide a trader with a good idea of how much money he or she is risking on that particular trade, should it turn out to be a loser.

5. Lack of "patience" and "discipline." Don't trade just for the sake of trading or just because you haven't traded for a while. Let those very good trading "setups" come to you, and then act upon them in a prudent way

6. Trading against the trend -- or trying to pick tops and bottoms in markets. It's human nature to want to buy low and sell high (or sell high and buy low for short-side traders). Top-pickers and bottom-pickers are usually trading against the trend, which is a major mistake.

7. Letting losing positions ride too long. Most successful traders will not sit on a losing position for very long. Traders who sit on a losing trade "hoping" the market will soon turn in their favor are usually doomed.

8. "Overtrading." If losses are piling up, it's time to cut back on trading, even though the temptation is to make more trades to recover the recently lost assets. It takes keen focus and concentration to be a successful trader.

9. Failure to accept complete responsibility for your actions. When you have a losing trade or are in a losing streak, don't blame your broker or someone else. You are responsible for your own success or failure in trading. You make the decisions.

10. Not getting a bigger-picture perspective on a market. One can look at a daily bar chart and get a shorter-term perspective on a market or stock trend. But a look at the longer-term weekly or monthly chart for that same market can reveal a completely different picture. It is prudent to examine longer-term charts for that bigger-picture perspective when contemplating a trade.

Good stuff Jim -- welcome suggestions any time of the year . . .

Source:
New Year's Resolution: Avoid Traders' Top 10 Mistakes
By Jim Wyckoff
RealMoney.com contributor
1/2/2007 10:27 AM EST
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/investing/10329264.html

Generic Wiki Linkfest

Saturday, February 24, 2007 | 09:30 AM

in Weblogs

I am en route back from La Jolla, California, so no linkfest this week. However, here's the generic version -- you guys can fill in the numbered links and general topics yourselves in the comments!

~~~

Uh-Oh: That was a _____ week

Something from Barron's Trader column. Snarky observation about some underperforming sector, but noting new record market highs.

Where to begin this week? The Market? The Dollar? Yields? Housing? No matter -- we got it all covered:

INVESTING & TRADING

1 • Lead Story of the Week

2 • Bullish article on why the rally can continue

3 • Bearish article on why its almost over

4 • Big Picture post

5 • Something Technical Analysis related

6 • Mark Hulbert/Dan Gross column

7 • Another Big Picture post

8 • Video from Bloomberg/TSCM/WSJ

9 • Academic Research

10 • Something Quirky Market related

ECONOMY

The Wall of worry continues to build:

11 • Major Econ release(s)

12 • Big Picture Econ tear apart

13 • Caroline Baum trashes something

14 • Another Big Picture Econ tear apart

15 • Retail is worse than you think

HOUSING

16 • Housing is bad.

17 • No, really bad;

18 • And, Its getting worse.

19 • Something idiotic from the NAR and/or David Lereah

20 • WSJ Real Estate Journal advice on selling your house

FEDERAL RESERVE

21 • Bernanke/Fed Governor jawboning strong growth and weak inflation

22 • Greg Ip/John Berry column

23 • Obscure Fed Researcher

Sentiment/Psychology

24 • Things are so bullish its bearish

25 • Actually,things aren't so bullish at all, and the individual investor is not participating.

26 • Something from Doc Steenbarger's TraderFeed

War/Media/Politics/Energy

27 • War in Iraq: Turns out, its not going so well

28 • Energy story about solar/wind/geothermal

29 • Media story on something absurd about the Media

30 • The Administration did something not very bright

31 • Thomas Friedman column

Technology & Science

32 • Google is great

33 • Apple, too

34 • but Microsoft sucks

35 • Tech: Wow!

36 • Science: bigger wow!

37 • Internet: hmmm, that's interesting

38 • Tech just keeps getting cooler

39 • Science something odd and surprising

40 • This Internet thingie is gonna be big one day

41 • Quirky geek something or other

Music Books Movies TV Fun!

42 • Music something new to listen to

43 • Music older -- Jazz, classic R&R

44 • Movie in the theater worth seeing; Also, this DVD was good

45 • Book about economics/market/investing

46 • Guess whats on TV this week?

47 • Humor -- pretty funny

48 • Video -- man, thats weird

49 • Time awasting web based video game (time suck)

50 • Another YouTube/Google Video

51 • Quirky: Man, THATS weird

52 • Hilarity ensues

That's all from here, where _______ involving weather/ sports / shopping in the NorthEast, where (something I dont know what) is coming this week.

Safe ______!

Friday Night Jazz: The Making of Peg

Friday, February 23, 2007 | 04:30 PM

in Digital Media | Friday Night Jazz | Music

I've always been a huge Steely Dan fan, so I especially enjoyed putting together this Friday nite jazz twofer.

(Yes, I am aware this is jazz/pop, and not pure Jazz).

First, the Citizen Steely Dan: 1972-1980 contains what may very well be the best Amazon review I have ever come across. The 4 CD box set itself is simply all of the Dan's studio releases compiled on 4 discs. Simply stated, its one of the greatest catalogues in the annals of pop/jazz music history.

The review sums up the box set thusly:

"As should be expected, Steely Dan's four-disc box set isn't like all the other rectangular pop-music retrospectives/tombstones. Not for Messrs. Walter Becker and Donald Fagen the typically bloated, ego-jacking crate padded out with childhood recordings, suspect cassette demos, and broken-down session takes, annotated by candid snapshots purloined from some distant relative. Nope, this is simply Dan Mach 1's complete oeuvre, from the craft-conscious pop of Can't Buy a Thrill to the jazzy torpor of Gaucho, laid out chronologically and neatly compressed into four discs, with not even a handful of "bonus" cuts (a live recording of "Bodhisattva," a '71 demo of "Everyone's Gone to the Movies" with Flo and Eddie on the side, "Here at the Western World," a Royal Scam outtake, and their obligatory soundtrack cameo, "FM") to color outside the lines. The liner notes are suitably smart, even if they occasionally strain trying to stay astride of B&F's patent sardonicism. For the aspiring Steely Dan completist, a fine place to start."
-Jerry McCulley

I can't find anything in there I disagree with.

If you are somehow unfamiliar with the Dan, avoid the greatest hits discs. The way to check them out is a random album; I suggest either Countdown To Ecstasy or Katy Lied BEFORE you hit the pristine studio exercises like Aja or Gaucho. All of these are a mere $2 or $3 used. If you find you like them, then you must own the 4 CD box set.

Up second, this fascinating exposition about the studio wizardary of the Dan during the glory years:

via YouTube

Enjoy!

UPDATE Februrary 24, 2007 7:53pm EST

I forgot to mention, I saw them this Summer at Jones Beach Theater, August 17, 2006. Awesome show! I threw the playlist up and a few camera phone snaps

Gold Knows

Friday, February 23, 2007 | 11:00 AM

in Economy | Federal Reserve | Inflation

A grudge match of epic proportions has been developing. Like Ali and Frazier, these two pugilists have been taunting each other, name calling, daring their counterpart to step into the ring and get the beating they so richly deserve.

This championship match, the Thrilla in Manilla, the Rumble in the Jungle can no longer be avoided. The contestants are fit and well-trained, the crowd is growing restless, the bets have been placed. Let the battle begin!

In this corner, weighing 195 pounds, standing 5 foot 10, hailing from Washington D.C. via Harvard, MIT and Princeton, New Jersey, wearing the M1 green trunks, the Charlemagne of Currency, the prince of paper, the bearded bard of the Fed, monarch of monetary policy, Benjamin GOLDILOCKS Bernanke!

And in the opposing corner, weighing 2046 metric tonnes -- one ounce at a time -- the shiny, precious, storehouse of value, the standard for monetary exchange, the most malleable and ductile of the known metals, that master of disaster, hailing from most of the world, that dense, soft, shiny, yellow metal, GOLD.

The battle between these two titans has become increasingly loud and volatile as of late. Bernanke, a former inflation Hawk, recently went all Lovey Dovey: He now believes there is "growth with ebbing inflationary pressures and a stabilizing housing market."

When Gold heard this, it laughed out loud, calling the Fed Chair out for such nonsense. Gold dissed Bernanke: "I know what you fear" taunted the metal. "You're afraid of the drag on growth while inflationary pressures are building and the subprime implosion is threatening the system."

Gold knows. It knows Bernanke has been painted into a corner, hamstrung by his predeccessor, Easy Al. Even if inflationary pressures spike upwards, Gold knows Ben cannot raise rates. Gold know what’s been goin’ down in the subprime market. Gold's sees his buddy Oil (aka Black Gold) at $61 bucks.

Gold know that the slowing economy would not absorb more rate hikes particularly well. Gold also knows that the FED can’t throw the economy a lifeline by easing, either. Gold thinks the Fed is full of crap, jawboning the markets with lies: That economic growth is robust, and about to reaccelerate, that inflation is "contained;" That Housing has stabilized.

Gold laughs its arse off at each and every NovaStar blow up. Gold knows the score. Reality dictates that the FED is going to sit there and get bitchslapped by whatever inflation comes our way. Thank you sir may I have another?

Gold smirks.

Want to talk re-acceleration? Gold knows that if the Fed tries to throttle inflation back down, they will launch a cascade of subprime lending implosions far beyond what we have already seen. And, if that were to occur, we might see it metastasize, spreading across the entire lending sector like an invasive economic cancer. So far, the sub prime disasters have been contained, like a large malignant tumor, confined to one small but significant section of the mortgage market. A few hikes and the entire disease could spread much further up the food chain.

Meanwhile, Gold futures edged higher earlier today, as rising crude-oil prices and a weaker dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal. Marketwatch reported that Gold for April delivery was last up $1.50 at $684.50 an ounce on the New York Merc. On Wedsday, gold closed at $684 an ounce, a seven-month high.

And the Fed? They are content to jawbone the markets.

All the while, Gold sits there, smiling.

Short Selling Falls

Friday, February 23, 2007 | 06:36 AM

in Investing | Markets | Psychology/Sentiment | Short Selling | Trading

Yesterday's conversation about Margin leads us to today's headline: Bears' Bets Fall on the NYSE.

"Short-selling activity fell on the New York Stock Exchange for the latest monthly reporting period, as bearish investors continued to struggle.

For the monthly period ending Feb. 15, the number of short-selling positions not yet closed out at NYSE -- so-called short interest -- declined 0.9% to 9,595,242,421 shares from 9,680,953,526 shares in mid-January.

Market-wide, the short ratio, or number of days' average trading volume represented by the outstanding short positions at the exchange, fell to 6.2 from 6.8."

I don't know much of Treflie Capital Management, but apparently they are a consulting firm which tracks short interest. They reported the "the average short-selling portfolio fell 1.8% in January, a dreary follow-up to a decline of more than 5% for all of 2006."

To be filed under No $#*t Sherlock: "Harry Strunk, a partner at Treflie, said short sellers have had an especially difficult time since the summer, when the stock market began a steady run higher that included fresh records in the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

Really? Do ya think?

This post belatedly adds a new category, Short Selling. (How on earth did I ever miss that one?)

Source:
Bears' Bets Fall on the NYSE
By PETER A. MCKAY
February 23, 2007; Page C7
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117219429274416810.html