Microsoft Vista Sales Slip
Barron's Eric Savitz (Tech Trader Daily) notes that Windows' Vista isn't exactly lighting it up over at Amazon's Software best seller list. Quoting Fred Hickey, Savitz observes:
The real point here is that the slow uptake for Vista has ripples for the entire PC supply chain. “Tech bulls expected Microsoft’s new operating system, Vista, to be a big demand driver in 2007,” Hickey writes in his newsletter. “The PC industry built up inventory in anticipation of a major upgrade cycle. However, we now know that Vista’s intial reception, from both business and consumer customers, was far chiller than almost anyone imagined…Instead of a Vista pickup, it looks we’ve entered a Vista stall.”
We've made the same point several times over the past few months, twice last month alone.
And Vista? At the moment, its #37 on the Amazon Software Best Sellers -- behind such huge sellers such as Dragon Naturally Speaking Speech Recognition (14), Microsoft Streets and Trips 2007 (22), and Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing Deluxe (31).
What really must burn Ballmer & Co. is that Vista at #37 is one place behind #36 -- Apple's latest OS upgrade (Mac OS X Tiger 10.4.6.) considering that Apple's installed base is less than 4% of Microsoft's. . .
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Source:
Windows Vista: Not Exactly Selling Like Hotcakes At Amazon.com
Eric Savitz
Barron's blog February 27, 2007, 4:28 pm
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/02/27/
windows-vista-not-exactly-selling-like-hotcakes-at-amazoncom/
Thursday, March 01, 2007 | 07:15 PM | Permalink
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Well, you can't have it both ways you know... one one hand preach how consumer spending are tighter and tighter and prove it daily how we are entering bad times and on the other hand wonder how Vista sales are not as good as expected...
I mean - look at Sony's PS3. Clearly very bad timing, among other things. If it was 2 years ago, it would fly off the shelves no matter what.
Posted by: bigboy | Mar 1, 2007 7:26:35 PM
Bad article.
Everybody knows most Vista upgrades would occur through the purchase of new computers. So, Mr. Savitz is way off base.
Posted by: NN | Mar 1, 2007 7:47:11 PM
" Eric Savitz (Tech Trader Daily) notes that Windows' Vista isn't exactly lighting it up over at Amazon."
Eric cannot make these conclusions based on Amazon ranks alone.
The last time I checked Vista Home premium was #32 and Mac OS X was #35. Currently, TurboTax is #1 (seasonal) and MS Office 2007 is #2.
In addition, Amazon offers 19% discount for Mac OS X and only free shipping for Vista (about 4% off).
Moreover, Vista has multiple versions and Amazon lists them as different products. Amazon assigns to each Vista version its own spot but Mac OS X is counted as a single product.
In other words, if Amazon would count all Vista versions as one product it would be number one, next to #2 MS Office 2007.
In short, Amazon ranks do not mean anything.
I agree with Fred Hickey 100%. The PC industry has overestimated the potential Vista upgrade cycle.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software/ref=pd_ts_sw_nav/103-0626757-8073422
Disclaimer: I am using Vista Ultimate on all of my personal and trading computers. I am very pleased with Vista stability and performance.
Posted by: V L | Mar 1, 2007 8:19:08 PM
Buying a retail operating system is stupid - the possible gains are uncertain, the possible problems are certain, and the prices are 4 times the OEM licence prices.
Posted by: Max | Mar 1, 2007 8:39:26 PM
Why don’t Wall Street (NYSE and Dow Jones) upgrade their computers?
What they don’t have any money?
Posted by: V L | Mar 1, 2007 8:40:23 PM
Shocking that sales are roughly that of Mac OS X? That's not the half of it Mr. R. Remember Vista is hellaciously difficult to pirate and OS X is well, not. The lie is "installed base." In my experience a Mac is useful for typically twice as long and recently 2.5 times as long as a PC installation. The new Intel machines are too new but 3x is certainly indicated. Thus when you see 6% think more 10%-15%.
Posted by: Robert Coté | Mar 1, 2007 8:47:45 PM
It could be another reason; people (myself included) buy Vista OEM software (not available from Amazon) from other sources.
Is there Mac OS X OEM? (I am not sure if OEM is available because of the Apple's hardware monopoly)
Posted by: V L | Mar 1, 2007 8:49:28 PM
We just did a seminar on Vista for some local non-profits and people are scared to buy new computers because Vista is the only option and they're happy with what they have. If you want a Dell go through the small business site instead of the home and XP should be available.
Posted by: KirkH | Mar 1, 2007 8:53:33 PM
The gap between XP and Vista is just too small. Personally, I still have some of my XP settings to windows classic, so I don't even utilize all of XP's visual enhancements.
There are even some XP themes that you can download to make your desktop look closer to Vista.
I'll get Vista when I purchase my next notebook this year, and it is included.
Nothing against Vista except that I'm more than happy with my XP Pro still.
Posted by: Michael C. | Mar 1, 2007 9:51:18 PM
Barry, I think V.L.'s post identifies Vista as the #1 product at Amazon (it has multiple SKU's but it's still Vista). Such a contradiction to your post deserves an update to the post itself, don't you think?
All this comparison to the Mac OS/X vs. Vista upgrade cycle has forgotten how traumatic the upgrade to OS/X from the little happy-faced operating system was...unless of course, you just bought it with your new MAC...
Posted by: wnsrfr | Mar 1, 2007 10:16:28 PM
Gamers will have to buy Vista once games start coming out which require DirectX 10. DirectX 10, won't work on XP. For Microsoft, the best choice is no choice.
Posted by: Emmanuel | Mar 1, 2007 11:04:33 PM
Vista: Scary--too expensive, too much DRM. Forget it.
Posted by: RPM | Mar 1, 2007 11:06:46 PM
Barry,
I think most people will upgrade to visit via a new computer. Anecdotally, I was at Best Buy this weekend and noticed a signficant amount of consumers "checking it out" with large crowds around many of the new laptops by HP and Lenovo. I don't know anyone personally that is buying the software for their current computer.
Posted by: drbrightside | Mar 2, 2007 12:09:33 AM
I think the problem is a lot worse than simply that people don't buy retail OS packages. The fact that Dell is selling new machines with the buyer's choice of Vista or XP says it all. Why do I care what the OS is? Does anyone care anymore?
It's a web application world. The GOOG office suite only sharpens the distinction between last and next wave.
Posted by: DelMarJohn | Mar 2, 2007 12:27:50 AM
it is not accurate to say "far chiller than almost anyone imagined" -- many people were predicting that vista would flop at least 2 years ago, and the calls got stronger as the release date approached, repeatedly delayed, and microsoft cut more and more proposed features out of the final version (except for the DRM of course).
check the archives of tech news sites, slashdot, digg, register, etc. (then compare the souring trend of opinion against the microsoft advertising hype intensity....) -- the point is that this bomb was widely predicted, along with other bombs like the zune, playsforsure, etc.
Posted by: JLReed | Mar 2, 2007 12:37:44 AM
Microsoft - 2007. GM - 19xx.
Apple - 2007. Toyota - 19xx.
No further questions.
Posted by: CDizzle | Mar 2, 2007 1:24:58 AM
Operating Systems are just commodities.
"Virtualization" is going to change everything in just 1-3 years. (VMWare, etc.)
We will swap operating systems in and out in real-time.
We will all be running Vista, OS X, and Linux on the same box, as if they were just applications.
Double-click, open up Vista. Double-click, open up OS X. Double-click, open up Linux.
It's a great time to be a software consumer. There are a ton of good choices.
Posted by: rebound | Mar 2, 2007 3:59:28 AM
If people are going to get snippy then it could be said Vista had zero sales during the 2 years it was delayed. You could even make the case that this product is noy even Vista but XPPro version 2 as it lacks many of the core features originally promised. Worst MS has jumped the shark with the retail pricing structure. I'm sure the idea was that with the increased anti-piracy the high price was unavoidable by users. Instead the result has been to drive people to vendors who are more interested in the users needs and not the sellers.
Posted by: Robert Coté | Mar 2, 2007 4:26:20 AM
Only the clueless ever thought Vista would roll off of the shelves day one. Corporate upgrade cycles do NOT work that way and never have. Home gamers and small business users, whom Microsoft likely could care less about because they'll eventually use what they use at work, will acquire Vista mostly through a process of new systems as they have always acquired new MS software.
Supposed experts are making mountains out of mole hills to sell subscriptions or they don't understand the IT business cycle.
Posted by: BDG123 | Mar 2, 2007 8:47:53 AM
"Microsoft - 2007. GM - 19xx.
Apple - 2007. Toyota - 19xx.
No further questions."
I think this is very apt. I think of MSFT as being a lot like DEC-- they have a lot of years left but the growth will be negative, once people get past Outlook/Exchange.
Posted by: Tom Barta | Mar 2, 2007 10:42:19 AM
OS X Tiger is #36: not bad for an OS that's 2 years old.
Posted by: innerdaemon | Mar 2, 2007 10:42:46 AM
Here's how you can experience Vista's user-friendly 'reduced functionality mode'
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Bott/?p=221&tag=nl.e622
What reduced functionality mode looks like -
http://content.zdnet.com/2346-12554_22-56027-1.html
Posted by: curmudgeonly troll | Mar 2, 2007 10:43:04 AM
Since businesses have had Vista since November, when do they start buying? All of this excitement was for the consumer release.
"NPD Group Inc. found that first-week sales of boxed copies of Vista were down 60 percent compared with first-week boxed copies of Windows XP five years earlier."
"THE SHY and retiring, softly-spoken CEO of Microsoft, Steve "Sounds of Silence" Ballmer is blaming software pirates for Vista's poor sales."
I wonder if Ballmer will use the weather as an excuse?
Posted by: me | Mar 2, 2007 11:11:22 AM
""THE SHY and retiring, softly-spoken CEO of Microsoft, Steve "Sounds of Silence" Ballmer is blaming software pirates for Vista's poor sales.""
If he believes this, he did too many drugs in the 1960's.
Posted by: Tom Barta | Mar 2, 2007 11:40:18 AM
I was wondering about Vista , seeing it has a cool reception . Not surprised , another version of the same crash prone systems . I'm getting real wore out by all my PC system IE crashes . Firefox has helped reduce this , but my next system is a Mac . Up to here with Gates and his laurels . Make a system that works please!! Bill
Posted by: Bill | Mar 2, 2007 12:42:42 PM
