Q1 2007 Global Returns
Continuing our good news Tuesday, we see this graphic -- nicely done info-porn, via Birinyi Associates -- shows most countries saw positive equity retuns in Q1 2007!
Tuesday, April 10, 2007 | 02:30 PM | Permalink
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Comments
Is Zimbabwe's 600% return all due to hyperinflation, or is there something else going on there?
Posted by: anonymous | Apr 10, 2007 2:36:59 PM
Zimbabwe's inflation rate is 1000% so the real return is negative -400%. Regardless, Kudlow loves it as an investment.
Posted by: Mike M | Apr 10, 2007 2:45:32 PM
Are those returns in U.S. dollars? If so inflation would be already accounted for. So assuming Zimbabwe's inflation was 1000%, in their local currency the market returned ~1600%.
Posted by: Matt H | Apr 10, 2007 3:00:10 PM
Just looking at the chart I wonder how much the relative stability or instability, for that matter, contributes to the return of each country.
Of the top 19 (dark green) I see only 4-5 places that I would barely visit much less commit capital to.
Go Iceland!!!
Ciao
MS
Posted by: Michael Schumacher | Apr 10, 2007 3:06:52 PM
I just sent a check to some guy in Nigeria. He emailed me and said he can get me into the Zimbabwean market. 600% in one quarter!!!! I am going to be so rich.
Posted by: Sponge Todd Square Pants | Apr 10, 2007 3:16:34 PM
Mike,
You're comparing their annual inflation rate with a quarterly return.
Over the past 12 months Zimbabwe's Stock Exchange is up over 12,000% and its CPI is running at 1,729%. So it's a positive real return.
http://www.mises.org/story/2532
Posted by: Bubbles | Apr 10, 2007 3:25:29 PM
Interesting article, Bubbles, thanks for sharing.
Personally I'm hoping Michael Schumacher takes all his money and moves it into the Zimbabwe stock market. The president there is probably much more to his liking than the one in the USA.
Posted by: Nova Law | Apr 10, 2007 4:09:49 PM
Funny
However the name "Nova" tells me how to value your continuing comments.
I guess you did'nt know that.....you do now
Ciao
MS
Posted by: Michael Schumacher | Apr 10, 2007 4:17:47 PM
Zimbabwe, Schmimzabwe.
We're gonna make it 9 in a row tomorrow, baby.
Posted by: tjofpa | Apr 10, 2007 4:44:44 PM
Doesn't look like DUBAI is booming like everyone has it is
Posted by: costa | Apr 10, 2007 4:46:00 PM
Hi,
I get the fact that Zimbabwe is experiencing hyperinflation. But sure;y there is a way to make money on this, is there not. Suppose I invest $100 today, market goes up 100%, I get back $200. I'm not spending it in zimbabwe - so I've made money - correct?
Next question - how can I invest in such a country. I doubt there is an ETF tracking it's index, or that eTrade allow access to such equities. Any ideas?
Thanks and apologies for my lack of ignorance!
Posted by: intrigued | Apr 10, 2007 5:44:50 PM
intrigued:
When you buy into the Zimbabwe market, you convert your $100 into, say 5000 Zims.. Then, the market goes up 100% and you get back 10000 Zims.. Turn that back into dollars, and you get like $12 after inflation.
Posted by: Eddie | Apr 10, 2007 5:52:05 PM
MS,
What exactly is wrong with Nova Law?
Please spell it out in plain terms for those of us who do not speak your language.
Chuck
Posted by: Chuck Ponzi | Apr 10, 2007 6:07:11 PM
"What exactly is wrong with Nova Law?"
The answer is simple; it's called Google.
Francois
Posted by: Francois | Apr 10, 2007 6:19:12 PM
I would be interested in seeing where California (top 500 market cap companies headquartered in California) fit into that ranking.
Above the US but below Germany?
Anyone know?
Posted by: ken | Apr 10, 2007 6:33:19 PM
I wouldn't laugh at these countries even if you would not visit them. Economies are booting up all over the planet, and this is INCREDIBLY bullish long term and good for the poor people living there. Given that these economies do not necessarily have legacy debt and infrastructure (say copper phone lines), they are positioned to ramp up and go digital & high speed wireless from the get go. These can become extraordinary prosperous nations very quickly. They don't have a welfare state like us (among other problems) to get in the way.
Perhaps contrast the chart above with the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven
I wish I had been invested back in 2005, when the list was published.
Posted by: rebound | Apr 10, 2007 7:06:23 PM
Could someone let Birinyi know that Macau does not have a stock market.
Posted by: Jeremy | Apr 10, 2007 9:18:10 PM
I suppose you could get the big Zimbabwe returns if you were in Zimbabwe and could convert Zimbabwe currency to US dollars, then go back three months later and convert the dollars back to local currency. Due to the inflation, you'd have a much larger pile of Zimbabwean money.
Of course, you'd be far better off holding on to the US dollars and buying an airline ticket the hell out of there.
Posted by: Jon H | Apr 10, 2007 9:34:36 PM
But what a difference ten days make!!!!
Compounded these performances on a yearly basis are really attractive isn'it?
Last year few investments funds had even the flair to capitalise on the peaks and..on the through (Invesco was really inspired!)
EUROPE
Var/1janv untill April 10th 2007
Allemagne DAX Xetra + 8.64%
Allemagne TECHN. ALL SHARE +17.10%
Belgique BEL + 4.72%
Espagne Ibex35 + 6.07%
France CAC 40 5 766.27(c) + 4.05%
Italie + 2.91%
Pays-Bas + 5.80%
Suisse SMI + 4.15%
Royaume Uni FTSE 100 + 3.06%
Posted by: Philippe | Apr 10, 2007 10:00:45 PM
Nova Law just hit it on the head ....
blame someone else... and above all else...
look the other way after currency exchange,
propaganda...inflation... greed? gold...pithy?... people?
Posted by: MarkTX | Apr 11, 2007 1:05:35 AM
rebound-
Yes I'm SURE that the "poor people" in Bangladesh have benefitted greatly from the 26% rise in it's indicies....
The only thing they worry about rising is the tide.....
Chuck-
Don't be so damn lazy...you're at a computer....what did you do before computers?? search on cuneform tablets?
Ciao
MS
Posted by: Michael Schumacher | Apr 11, 2007 10:13:15 AM
This chart cant even match its key to the colors it is using to represtne returns correctly, how do I know they know how to calculate the return numbers correctly?!.
Notice China was up 19.01% but is colored in dark green on the map which would require a return of 20% or more.
Posted by: ffguru | Apr 11, 2007 12:34:49 PM
