China & The Mother of all Double Tops?
Shanghai was down 6.5% this morning.
The alleged cause was news that Chinese officials were raising the tax on stock transactions from 0.1% to 0.3%. They have been trying to reduce the speculative bubble there, but to no avail. (Stocks in China are limited to 10% daily movement).
The Shanghai Composite hit 4334.92, its highest level ever. YTD, its up 62%, and since mid-2005, the index has gained 328%.
Marketwatch reports that "Outside of China, global markets declined on Wednesday, but not precipitously - the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.5% loss in Tokyo, and the FTSE 100 declined 1.1% in London."
What will be interesting today is whether or not it sticks. Here in the US, markets have up until very recently, been clawing back from any negative opening. Its only over the past two weeks that we have seen tired trading, with an inability to sustain a strong open.
The failure of the SPX at the prior highs -- 1527 on closing basis -- and an inability to make a new high has some technicians wondering if we are looking at the mother of all double tops. (I have no opinion on this).
Whether the straight up market is merely tired, or overdue for some sort of pullback, or if this is the start of something else is unknown for now.
Futures are in the red, with the Dow down 70, the Nasdaq off 10, and the S&P500 off 7.5
Today's trading will be quite interesting to say the least.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007 | 06:17 AM | Permalink
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interesiting to see how the markets in china will follow up tomorrow......
one point at the day 200 from 300 stocks of the csi 300 were limit down (10%)!
Posted by: jmf | May 30, 2007 6:40:48 AM
glad you said 'alleged' Barry
the Basques are nervously watching the Exits
this is one market that doesn't reflect the underlying economy
there'll be some real bargains in the leading resources after this fallout
rgds pcm
Posted by: peter from oz | May 30, 2007 7:15:33 AM
The tax increase from 0.1% to 0.3% is hardly an increase at all. It will not cool down the speculation.
The Dow futures are down by 70 points – classic conditional response. It just shows that the traders are nothing more than Pavlov’s dogs.
Posted by: V L | May 30, 2007 7:38:23 AM
VL is exactly right.
The great value of this blog to me has been the persistent questioning of government statistics, their poor methodology, and their horrible inaccuracy.
I cannot for the life of me understand why anyone in his or her right mind would make snap investment decisions on such horrible data.
Oh forgive me--i forgot I was referring to Wall Street traders! LOL
Regards to all..
Posted by: Jay Weinstein | May 30, 2007 7:44:25 AM
Lets not forget that the Chinese markets are up 62% so far this year and jumped 130% last year. And the markets spiked higher the years before as well.
Good times never last forever! Obviously, the gov't feels the need to do something to slow things down or else much bigger problems will end up happening. People are so biased to the bullish side that they forget that bad times do occur.
Let me ask you this? What happens if this correction doesn't snap right back? What if other Asian markets follow suit? What if US hedge funds that have been invested in these markets decide to pull out? Effect on US equities?
We already had one Asian contagion back in 1997-1998, why is it NOT possible for another?
I've been discussing this on UrbanDigs.com weeks ago; that is a Chines equity market correction and its effects here at home:
http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/05/greenspan_asia_too_close_to_ho.html
http://www.urbandigs.com/2007/05/skinny_dipping_anyone.html
What happens if Chines markets give up HALF of what it gained this year and last year alone, forgetting the years prior?
Everyone is so scared to predict a top, yet when you are at these record levels it seems logical to me to lighten the load and get more cautious. You never know what might happen to spook investors and today's news in China is a great example. Fundamentals or not, things change and you must adapt.
Back in 2000, fundamentally things were great. Only problem is, the reports I was analyzing on corporations operating income and such, were false! Guess what, its the average investor that gets hit the most by not adapting to a mysteriously changing marketplace.
Warning signs, thats all Im sayin!
Posted by: UrbanDigs | May 30, 2007 7:55:28 AM
The Yen is not rallying like it did during the February Chinese market whackage. That could be the green light for the dip buyers.
Posted by: S | May 30, 2007 7:55:54 AM
I love the fact that every strategist on the TV is calling this a buying opportunity. I'll still wait until Mr. Valentine sets the price.
Posted by: EricP | May 30, 2007 8:13:51 AM
ADP is 97K (mostly service-producing jobs) suggesting that the employment numbers should be around 120K (adjusting for government jobs).
Posted by: V L | May 30, 2007 8:24:04 AM
I wouldn't be surprised by a whipsaw higher, then a "whack a mole" lower...buy the second dip.
Posted by: Fred | May 30, 2007 8:31:17 AM
In addition, the tax was 0.6% in the 1990s but has been cut repeatedly since to 0.1% in 2005.
The tax of 0.3% is half of what it used to be in the 1990s.
The media spins it as "the tax was tripled" vs. "the tax was increase by 0.2%". Why?
Posted by: V L | May 30, 2007 8:36:03 AM
They say tripled 'cause if they say "increased by 200%" nobody will believe the story.
The MSM circus has a good show today. Just make sure who the clowns are before you laugh.
Posted by: mhm | May 30, 2007 8:47:18 AM
my guess of today's action: 3/4 gap close this morning, weakness late morning, after 11, down around 60, serious selling starts at 12:50, down 145 by 3 p.m., rally back to 100 and then sell off in last 15 minutes and close down 131 points. Just a guess.
Posted by: Fenner | May 30, 2007 8:50:56 AM
A long time ago I was a newlywed driving with my wife. We were driving along a northern part of route 80 in Michigan. Cruising along at about 55 miles per hour. Suddenly a snow squall a bit of the lake effect occoured around Benton Harbor. The rear of the car started to swerve back and forth in ever increasing moves with greater and greater speed. I yelled "hold on!" Then we broke out of the last swing and spun off through a reflector to settle at the side of the road. No harm to either of us although the car needed some repair at the point where we snapped off the reflector.
So we were delayed a day and then got on with our journey. I drive a bit more cautiously in situations where it looks like the weather might change.
Posted by: alexd | May 30, 2007 9:12:36 AM
What about the tax was increased by the additional 0.2% instead of “it is tripled” or instead of “it is a 200% increase”?
After the Fed increased the interest rates from 1% to 5.25%, I did not hear anybody saying that the rates had a 425% increase over a few years or something like "pentaploid increase ( 5x)".
Posted by: V L | May 30, 2007 9:16:01 AM
Presumably this is the double top you refer to
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/M
Posted by: curmudgeonly troll | May 30, 2007 9:40:33 AM
I see markets recovering as I was reading this post. Oh you poor bears, you hope for a market crash and it doesn't seem to happen. I pity your predictions!
This summer will be interesting.
Posted by: ManhattanGuy | May 30, 2007 10:32:10 AM
3/4 gap close complete...
Posted by: fenner | May 30, 2007 10:37:32 AM
ManhattanGuy,
You do realize, of course, that your sniggering end-zone dancing is music to the bears' ears...
Posted by: John | May 30, 2007 10:40:11 AM
who got out of US equities in 2000 and invested in AZ,FL and NV condos,then dumped the condos in 2005 and got long chinese equities?. this is the guy I want to manage my money.
Posted by: spongetoddsquarepants | May 30, 2007 11:25:46 AM
spongetoddsquarepants,
if you find the guy that did that good luck getting him to manage your money. If he is doing very well for his self why would he need to manage other people money?
Every one knows people who manage other people money don't have their own money. rotf
Posted by: 123 | May 30, 2007 12:07:30 PM
Manhattan guy will just post a portion of some article that highlights his stance. He did it with the NAHB numbers last week. Forgetting to mention that the increase was only in one area (N.W.)while the rest of the country was still in a long down trend.
Funny how people only hear what they want to hear......just like the king.
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | May 30, 2007 12:41:52 PM
this may be of interest......
Did You Know? (6 Stamp Duty Adjustments in History)
From a local onshore broker
*Oct. 1991 - The Stamp Duty was cut from 0.6% to 0.3% - SHCOMP gained 20.7% in the following month; *May. 1997 - The Stamp Duty was raised from 0.3% to 0.5% - SHCOMP lost over 30% in the following month; *Jun. 1998 - The Stamp Duty was cut from 0.5% to 0.4% - SHCOMP gained 2.65% on the day of the announcement; *Jun. 1999 - The Stamp Duty on B-share was cut from 0.4% to 0.3% - SHSE B Index gained over 50% in the following month; *Nov. 2001 - The Stamp Duty was cut to 0.2% for the whole market - SHCOMP gained over 100 pts in the following month; *Jan. 2005 - The Stamp Duty was cut from 0.2% to 0.1% - SHCOMP gained 4.1% in the following month.
Posted by: jopo | May 30, 2007 3:06:55 PM
the average stock in the SPX trades at 23.5x earnings and 4.5x book value,the yield on the 10-year benchmark T’note is trying to travel above 4.9%
Hmmmm!
rgds pcm
Posted by: peter from oz | May 30, 2007 3:18:31 PM
Dow up 111 points, NASD, S&P Record close
How about that ehh?
Still targeting for a Dow 14000
~~~
BR: Yes
Posted by: ManhattanGuy | May 30, 2007 4:31:54 PM
BR - I don't believe we will have a double top here on S&P. I thought the same thing about Dow Jones when it was approaching 13,000. But it blew my expectations. I think S&P is going to break 1550 by year end.
Posted by: ManhattanGuy | May 30, 2007 8:38:06 PM
