NFP: 88k (and I don't believe even that)

Friday, May 04, 2007 | 09:45 AM

The Payroll numbers are out, and they are not particularly pretty:

88,000 new jobs were created in April, according to BLS. This is the weakest job gain since November '04. Cumulative revisions for prior months were to the downside by 26,000.

As expected, losses were in Manufacturing (19k), Retail (26k) and Construction (11k). The  weakness in Construction has been very uted, implying that the full impact of the housing slow down has yet to be fully realized.

Biggest gains were had in Services (116k), Education and Health (53k), Gov't (25k) Professional (24k) and Leisure/Hospitality (22k).    

Temporary help jobs fell for a 3rd month (January was flat) making 4 consecutive months of no gains. Temp help tends to lead employment gains, and this weakness can be read as a future forecastor of employment.

We don't pay close attention to the Household survey, (the self reported number is very volatile) but the drop of -468k was an eyebrow raiser.

~~~

Birth Death Adjustment:  A whopping 317k B/D adjustment -- that is the single largest "adjustment" on record for any single given month. And despite that giant add, the number was a very soft 88k.

To put this into some context, of those 317k new jobs hypothesized by BLS, 49k of those supposed jobs are in construction. Now what are the odds of that?

While Wall Street celebrates the upcoming recession, let me remind you that this economy requires about 150k new monthly jobs to merely keeep up with population growth.



April 2007
BLS


Table A.  Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
_______________________________________________________________________________
                         |                 |                          |
                         |    Quarterly    |                          |
                         |     averages    |       Monthly data       |
                         |_________________|__________________________|  Mar.-
        Category         |        |        |                          |  Apr.
                         |  2006  |  2007  |            2007          | change
                         |________|________|__________________________|
                         |        |        |        |        |        |
                         |   IV   |    I   |  Feb.  |  Mar.  |  Apr.  |
________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________
                         |
     HOUSEHOLD DATA      |                 Labor force status
                         |_____________________________________________________
                         |        |        |        |        |        |
Civilian labor force ....| 152,425| 152,912| 152,784| 152,979| 152,587|   -392
  Employment ............| 145,629| 146,044| 145,919| 146,254| 145,786|   -468
  Unemployment ..........|   6,797|   6,869|   6,865|   6,724|   6,801|     77
Not in labor force ......|  77,471|  77,927|  78,050|  78,055|  78,666|    611
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________
                         |
                         |                 Unemployment rates
                         |_____________________________________________________
                         |        |        |        |        |        |
All workers .............|     4.5|     4.5|     4.5|     4.4|     4.5|    0.1
  Adult men .............|     3.9|     4.1|     4.1|     4.0|     4.0|     .0
  Adult women ...........|     3.9|     3.9|     3.8|     3.8|     3.8|     .0
  Teenagers .............|    15.1|    14.8|    14.9|    14.5|    15.3|     .8
  White .................|     3.9|     4.0|     4.0|     3.8|     3.9|     .1
  Black or African       |        |        |        |        |        |
    American ............|     8.5|     8.1|     7.9|     8.3|     8.2|    -.1
  Hispanic or Latino     |        |        |        |        |        |
    ethnicity ...........|     4.8|     5.4|     5.2|     5.1|     5.4|     .3
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________
                         |
  ESTABLISHMENT DATA     |                     Employment
                         |_____________________________________________________
                         |        |        |        |        |        |
Nonfarm employment.......| 136,951|p137,448| 137,419|p137,596|p137,684|    p88
  Goods-producing (1)....|  22,539| p22,507|  22,465| p22,501| p22,473|   p-28
    Construction ........|   7,691|  p7,683|   7,641|  p7,691|  p7,680|   p-11
    Manufacturing .......|  14,147| p14,113|  14,113| p14,095| p14,076|   p-19
  Service-providing (1)..| 114,412|p114,941| 114,954|p115,095|p115,211|   p116
    Retail trade (2).....|  15,316| p15,373|  15,365| p15,397| p15,371|   p-26
    Professional and     |        |        |        |        |        |
      business services .|  17,727| p17,830|  17,840| p17,846| p17,870|    p24
    Education and health |        |        |        |        |        |
      services ..........|  18,019| p18,142|  18,138| p18,187| p18,240|    p53
    Leisure and          |        |        |        |        |        |
      hospitality .......|  13,318| p13,422|  13,425| p13,445| p13,467|    p22
    Government ..........|  22,107| p22,169|  22,174| p22,194| p22,219|    p25
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________
                         |
                         |                  Hours of work (3)
                         |_____________________________________________________
                         |        |        |        |        |        |
Total private ...........|    33.9|   p33.8|    33.7|   p33.9|   p33.8|  p-0.1
  Manufacturing .........|    41.1|   p41.0|    40.9|   p41.2|   p41.1|   p-.1
    Overtime ............|     4.2|    p4.2|     4.1|    p4.3|    p4.2|   p-.1
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________
                         |
                         |   Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (2002=100)(3)
                         |_____________________________________________________
                         |        |        |        |        |        |
Total private ...........|   106.5|  p106.8|   106.4|  p107.3|  p106.9|  p-0.4
                         |________|________|________|________|________|________
                         |
                         |                     Earnings (3)
                         |_____________________________________________________
Average hourly earnings, |        |        |        |        |        |
  total private .........|  $17.00| p$17.16|  $17.16| p$17.21| p$17.25| p$0.04
Average weekly earnings, |        |        |        |        |        |
  total private .........|  575.73| p579.90|  578.29| p583.42| p583.05|  p-.37
_________________________|________|________|________|________|________|________

   1 Includes other industries, not shown separately.
   2 Quarterly averages and the over-the-month change are calculated using
unrounded data.
   3 Data relate to private production and nonsupervisory workers.
  p = preliminary.



 

Friday, May 04, 2007 | 09:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (41) | TrackBack (2)
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» S&P at New Recovery Highs from At These Levels
New highs are new highs. As I said on Tuesday, the stock market is stronger than in 2000 and the economic numbers are weaker. You figure that one out. But Barry Ritholtz put it very neatly this morning: While Wall Street celebrates the coming recess [Read More]

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» Payroll Employment Report and the Birth/Death Model from A Dash of Insight
How should we interpret today's employment report, showing a growth in non-farm payrolls of 88K, a bit less than expected? There is also an increase in the unemployment rate and a different picture of job growth from the survey of [Read More]

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Comments

by the way cnbc reports you would think that we were all on oprah and about to get a new new grand prix!

this american experiment is the biggest sale in the history of the world.

Posted by: erik | May 4, 2007 9:58:38 AM

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