Case Shiller Housing Composite: Worst since 1991

Tuesday, July 31, 2007 | 09:54 AM

Pretty amazing: This data release (May 2007) marks the 18th consecutive decline in growth, dating back to December 2005.

As the chart below shows, annual returns of the Case Shiller Composite now shows continued negative annual returns -- an annual decline rate of 3.4%. These place the national market for real estate and single family homes at levels not seen since the summer of 1991. (The 20-City annual decline rate is 2.8%).

Excerpt:

“At a national level, declines in annual home price returns are showing no signs of a slowdown or turnaround,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “Year-over-year price returns are continuing to either move deeper into negative territory or experience persistent diminishing returns. If there is any positive news in these numbers, it may be that in both May and April eight of the 20 markets showed positive monthly growth rates. This compares to only one or two of the 20 in the late winter and early spring. We need a few more months of data, however, to determine if this is the beginning of a national turnaround, since the national trend is still at a sharp deceleration.”

With Chicago now reporting negative annual returns, 15 of the 20 metro areas are now reporting negative annual price returns. In addition, 16 of the metro areas saw a decline in their annual growth rate compared to April’s data. Detroit continues to lead the metro areas in growth rate declines, down 11.1% from a year ago and has been in annual decline since May 2006 . . .

Pretty astonishing fall from the peak. And, based upon inventory levels and present sale rates, we are not remotely close to done.

Case Shiller Home Price Index
Case_shiller_housing_index_731

chart courtesy of Standard & Poors

Here is the break down via Tradition Financial Services, Inc. / TFS Derivatives Corp.

S&P/Case-Shiller Index - May 2007

May 06

Apr 07

Apr 07R

May 07

Apr07 v May07

Apr07 v May07

May06 v May07

Bos

178.61

169.60

169.60

170.95

1.35

0.80%

-4.3%

Bos

Chi

166.61

165.87

165.87

165.68

(0.19)

-0.11%

-0.6%

Chi

Den

138.31

134.86

134.86

136.32

1.46

1.08%

-1.4%

Den

LV

234.39

226.65

226.65

224.79

(1.86)

-0.82%

-4.1%

LV

LA

272.12

263.36

263.36

263.19

(0.17)

-0.06%

-3.3%

LA

Mia

278.68

273.53

273.53

269.52

(4.01)

-1.47%

-3.3%

Mia

NY

215.57

211.65

211.89

210.69

(0.96)

-0.45%

-2.3%

NY

SD

249.15

232.64

232.64

231.80

(0.84)

-0.36%

-7.0%

SD

SF

218.37

211.47

211.47

210.89

(0.58)

-0.27%

-3.4%

SF

WDC

251.07

235.29

236.17

235.15

(1.02)

-0.43%

-6.3%

WDC

Comp

226.00

218.93

219.01

218.37

(0.64)

-0.29%

-3.4%

Comp





Source:
Late Spring Numbers Bring Chilly Returns According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P, July 31, 9:00 AM EST
PDF
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_May1235.pdf

Tuesday, July 31, 2007 | 09:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | TrackBack (2)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e39332d1458834

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Case Shiller Housing Composite: Worst since 1991:

» Mortgage lender collapses; real estate prices continue to fall from eyeon08.com
The big news today in housing is this, from Bloomberg: American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. shares plunged 89 percent after the lender said it doesnt have cash to fund new loans and may have to sell off assets. American Home caters t... [Read More]

Tracked on Jul 31, 2007 4:05:42 PM

» Homes Prices 18-MonthDecline from Fundmastery Blog
Speaking of corrections in the stock market, we also are reminded that home prices are heading down too. Barry Ritholtz posted this excerpt from Standard Poors report on its index of single family home prices: “At a nation... [Read More]

Tracked on Aug 3, 2007 5:25:35 PM

Comments

That slope from 2006 on down is the steepest decent- or even ascent- on the curve. There ain't no turn-around there.

With +8% to +20% for all of 1998-2006, aren't sustained declines of -5% to -10% for a few years entirely feasible? All the positive drivers for the real estate market in 1998-2006 have turned negative... in such a situation, can't the market go down half as fast as its been going up?

That seems entirely feasible, doesn't it? And yet it would be devastating...

Posted by: Sherman McCoy | Jul 31, 2007 10:55:51 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner