78 Years Ago Today: The New Yorker
I was kicking around the New Yorker cartoon bank when I stumbled across this interesting New Yorker August 31, 1929 cover print by Theodore G. Haupt (98 78 years ago today!)
After an amazing five-year run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) increase in value fivefold -- far more than the run from 2003 til now -- prices peaked at 381.17 on September 3, 1929, about the time when this cover came out:
>
Remember, the real mayhem wasn't until a few months later -- Black Thursday, the initial crash was on October 24th, 1929, and Black Tuesday was 5 days later -- October 29th, 1929.
~~~
UPDATE: August September 1, 2007 7:55am
Doh! So much for 14 years of applied mathematics!
I blame fat thumbs on that one -- either that, or smoking way too much dope in college . . .
~~~
UPDATE: September 2, 2007 7:15am
Oh, and speaking of innumeracy . . .
Friday, August 31, 2007 | 02:30 PM | Permalink
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I did fairly well in my college math courses, so I can say with a reasonable amount of confidence that your math is off a bit....68 years ago.
SMS
Posted by: Shannon | Aug 31, 2007 2:23:47 PM
My math says 77.99863107 years
Posted by: KP | Aug 31, 2007 2:29:38 PM
Uh, you're both equally correct. 2007 minus 1929 is 78.
Posted by: Hrebml | Aug 31, 2007 2:31:00 PM
I did fairly well in my college math courses, so I can say with a reasonable amount of confidence that your math is off a bit....68 years ago.
Doh! Is it too late to get your money back?
Posted by: DrToast | Aug 31, 2007 2:32:31 PM
I knew all those hours spent playing number munchers would pay off!
Posted by: KP | Aug 31, 2007 2:33:18 PM
"Doh! Is it too late to get your money back?"
Money back? Why? Maybe some hedge fund or mortgage broker is hiring.
Posted by: Grodge | Aug 31, 2007 3:00:49 PM
I love it... 15 cents for the issue. What do they go for now? Like $4.50 or something? That's 4.4% compounded growth, which is higher than CPI compounded growth of about 3.2% over the same period.
Posted by: Sam Park | Aug 31, 2007 3:04:15 PM
78 years.
Posted by: Metroplexual | Aug 31, 2007 3:17:05 PM
Why isn't there a puppy in the picture?
Even frenzied Wall Street bloodletting becomes palatable when you put a cute puppy in the picture.
Posted by: Mongo | Aug 31, 2007 3:19:15 PM
It's comforting to know that modern trading mechanisms and controls ensure that such mayhem will NEVER happen again . . .
Posted by: kwark | Aug 31, 2007 3:35:49 PM
I couldn't spot any CNBC boneheads on the floor, so I guess it's genuine 1929.
Posted by: dukeb | Aug 31, 2007 3:40:24 PM
I did fairly well in my college math courses, so I can say with a reasonable amount of confidence that your math is off a bit....68 years ago.
SMS
Ya Baby! Let's party like its 1999!!!
Posted by: dryfly | Aug 31, 2007 4:02:03 PM
Actually Barry is caught in a time warp and posting from 20 years in the future.
What's the market like then, Barry? Cause that's when we're retiring....
Posted by: donna | Aug 31, 2007 4:26:05 PM
Why does the Bush settlement remind me so much of the Munich Agreement (1938)?
Is it the delusion?
If you've never seen it, take a look at the footage:
http://heritage.scotsman.com/videos.cfm?vid=199
Posted by: D. | Aug 31, 2007 4:42:07 PM
Where's Waldo? or should I say Where's Cramer? Oh, I see him crying- "He has no idea how bad it is out there. He has no idea! He has no idea!"
Posted by: David | Aug 31, 2007 5:47:06 PM
If you watn something really scary, 1929 was also the two-year anniversary of a certain city on the Missippi River being destroyed by a hurricane.
Posted by: M.Z. Forrest | Aug 31, 2007 5:48:47 PM
Why isn't there a puppy in the picture?
Even frenzied Wall Street bloodletting becomes palatable when you put a cute puppy in the picture.
Posted by: Mongo | Aug 31, 2007 3:19:15 PM
_____________________________
The puppy was the first to see the writing on the wall, and headed out for points unknown.
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Aug 31, 2007 6:15:54 PM
Barry, are you implying that the markets will be ripe for a crash in 2027?
Posted by: W.Edwards | Aug 31, 2007 6:19:04 PM
donna,
Maybe Barry had Beatles on his mind:
http://www.parade.com/features/070421-touchstones-beatles-sgt-peppers.html
"It was 20 40 years ago today, Sergeant Pepper told the band to play..."
Posted by: Pool Shark | Aug 31, 2007 6:28:51 PM
"Remember, the real mayhem wasn't until a few months later"
Actually, the real mayhem wasn't until 1987 under Reagan, which was an even larger crash.
.
Posted by: VJ | Aug 31, 2007 6:32:16 PM
Maybe he was thinking CDO, leverage leverage leverage...68 equals 98 !
Posted by: Tim | Aug 31, 2007 7:42:32 PM
maybe the 98 is notational???
Posted by: Dk | Aug 31, 2007 11:37:29 PM
98 was what his comp analysis said the years were worth. 78 is what the the fair market value was. Blackstone was offering 12. The Fed was willing to give him 200 years worth at 7% since it was collateralized and after taxes it was worth 50
Posted by: DavidB | Sep 1, 2007 5:20:07 AM
I call Mulligan!
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Sep 1, 2007 7:52:51 AM
BARRY, with so much of the board being filled with doom and gloom stuff, why don't you have some constructive investment advice ??
Buy oil ??, buy gold ?? short fannie mae??
why not be more constructive ??
Posted by: rickrude | Sep 1, 2007 7:54:26 AM
FYI...you went back in time with the update. It is time stamped August 1.
You can't win with this post.
Posted by: Groty | Sep 1, 2007 12:23:54 PM
Barry overshot on returning to present day and is now a month behind. Please reset your time traveling device, Barry!
Oh wait, he's playing with the market, isn't he, redoing all those shorts...
~~~
BR: Doh!
Posted by: donna | Sep 1, 2007 12:49:07 PM
WHAT IS THIS A PICTURE OF? ITS A BIG MESS IN MY EYES. WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH PRE 1929 CRASH?
Posted by: I_WANT_TO_SHORT_CREDIT_CARDS | Sep 2, 2007 11:28:35 AM
