Recession Forecast?
Interesting WSJ Readers Poll: Will the U.S. economy enter a recession in the next six months?
Slightly more than half (51%) do not think we are heading to a recession. About half expect a recession, or say we are already in one (38+11%).
Note this WSJ reader's Poll was taken yesterday (9/6/07), prior to today's NFP data
Friday, September 07, 2007 | 10:00 AM | Permalink
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We have been in one since 2000! Don't be suckered by inflation!
Due to the existing economic, industrial, and monetary imbalances existing in our new "Global Economy" the great sucking effect we are feeling here in America will continue until some sort of equilibrium is reached(which looks to be while from now)
Posted by: KP | Sep 7, 2007 10:07:54 AM
We don't have recessions anymore...we just twiddle the numbers and make them go away.
btw, don't look now, but December gold to $115.00, and the US$ index under 80 (79.85).
"Don't worry, be happy."
Posted by: Pool Shark | Sep 7, 2007 10:13:47 AM
It's only a recession for the bottom 90%.
Fat cats are doing just fine.
Posted by: ari5000 | Sep 7, 2007 11:06:25 AM
Most Americans are in a recession right now.
Posted by: Owner Earnings | Sep 7, 2007 11:16:56 AM
The blowhards of CNBC out pimping a cut this morning. Kudlow and the former Labor Sec. to name a few. Russ Winter calls the Boyz of Wall Street "Pig Men", but I think they need to be renamed "Hog Men", as in, "pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered". Welcome to the party elites of the world. Here's hoping you all eat cake just like the little guy in 2000-2001.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Sep 7, 2007 11:17:02 AM
The dollar at 79.92, and they still don't get it, or more rightly they get it, but want there own asses saved. LOL!
How you gonna lower rates with the dollar tanking?
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Sep 7, 2007 11:23:09 AM
Who cares? Inflation-adjusted growth or dollar index-weighted growth are more useful measures of economic health than nominal dollar growth.
Posted by: John F. | Sep 7, 2007 11:31:02 AM
i have posted this in another thread...but was wondering if i can get some answers here:
----------------------------------
I am not against rate cut, unless some one lists actual problems economy may face due to it.
only bad effect of rate cut is inflation....but if that means we ward off recession...i dont mind inflation.
dollar may decline...but i have my doubts...since no one wants to appreciate too much against the dollar anymore...since they are already hurting. I beleive that all central bankers are going to intervene such that their currency does not appreciate more than 5% from current level.
so in other words rate cut is only bad news for people who are locked in cash...
please tell me i am wrong.
my logic is that consumers are debtors...but we need them to support our growth...hence all the exporters maybe willing to take the loss to support US consumers (india, china and other exporting countries are already doing that).
no one is a winner if US goes into recession (except maybe russia's politicians) and the only way out of recession maybe inflation(or more debt at cheap rates) to reduce the debt load of US consumers.
Posted by: techy2468 | Sep 7, 2007 11:34:39 AM
must not be wrong !!!!
-- bruce banner
Posted by: Douglas Watts | Sep 7, 2007 11:39:04 AM
Larry still jawboning insesently, and even turning red in the face. LOL! What's a matter Larry? Your buds may take real losses? Poor dears.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Sep 7, 2007 11:51:26 AM
Job numbers are much worse than they appear when you consider the following:
1) Illegal immigrant construction workers loss of jobs is not counted (large proportion of labor)
2) RE Agents and Mortgage Brokers have not necessarily lost their jobs, only their income for the foreseeable future.
Same impact on the economy as job losses, only less transparent in the numbers.
Recession-Election 08, here we come!
Posted by: Paragon | Sep 7, 2007 12:08:42 PM
It's what y'all said!
Posted by: wunsacon | Sep 7, 2007 12:10:59 PM
Goldilocks has left the building.
Kudlow's worst nightmare is a recession in 2008. The only thing he really cares about is the Republican party. If the country is in recession in 2008 the Republican party will be destroyed.
Posted by: GerryL | Sep 7, 2007 12:11:04 PM
Barry...Barry...Barry, it's all contained, and there will be no recession because it's all contained. I have this from good authority including Hank, Benny and the Boyz:
I posted a WSJ article the other morning concerning CITI, and mocked the BS from CITI. Down 17% to 20% says they are more full of crap than a Christmas Turkey. From FT...SIVs And CITI:
In a letter seen by the WS Journal, Citigroup’s SIV overseers, Paul Stephens and Richard Burrows, said that:
Quite simply, portfolio quality is extremely high and we have no credit concerns about any of the constituent assets… SIVs remain robust and their asset portfolios are performing well.
But look at the filings with the London Stock Exchange, and you will see that Citi’s SIVs have seen declines in portfolio net asset value of 17-20 per cent in the past few months, which doesn’t quite sit comfortably with Stephens and Burrows assertion that “asset portfolios are performing well”.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Sep 7, 2007 12:27:11 PM
I would say WSJ readers do not represent a majority of the population, many of whom are already in a recession.
Posted by: donna | Sep 7, 2007 12:35:57 PM
"I would say WSJ readers do not represent a majority of the population, many of whom are already in a recession."
Exactly, and if the average consumer believes we are/or will be in a recession they will change (cut-back) their spending patterns accordingly....furthermore, in the case of a recession poll of the average US citizen (as opposed to WSJ readers) it shouldn't be used as a "contrarian" indicator.
Posted by: kmoore88 | Sep 7, 2007 12:47:31 PM
yawn
Posted by: Bob A | Sep 7, 2007 12:54:30 PM
Here is a similar discussion, with some other data points:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/09/dueling_recessi_1.html
Posted by: Rix | Sep 7, 2007 12:57:40 PM
All this data once in a while (These days more than once in a while) comes out and shakes up the markets. But somehow, even before the bear celebrations have started, it just moves up again. And again, and again.
The final hand just doesn't get played. Kind of uncertainty fatigue, if one may put it that way. Very sapping.
Now onto Sep 18. Just continues..
Posted by: pj | Sep 7, 2007 12:57:58 PM
I can't wait to see market internals for today. FUGLY!
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Sep 7, 2007 1:38:57 PM
No recession and no goldilocks, just plain old economic stagnation. Growth will slow down mostly do to demographic reasons. If the fed cut more then .25 you will see stagflation. "Stagflation" - the destroyer of the worlds, who has come to annihilate the rich and poor - through its low economic growth and high inflation. Beware stagflation.
"And it must follow, as the night the day, thou canst not then be false to any man". Shakespeare
Posted by: David | Sep 7, 2007 1:58:44 PM
50% say no recession?
I thought there were too many bears and the markets were climbing a wall of worry.
Sounds like there are a lot of Hopeful Optimists out there waving the flag.
There's nothing 'wrong' with a market correction. It shakes out poorly allocated capital. It will result in hedge funds closing shop. It will provide bargains for the patience investor, just like the housing collapse will provide affordable homes to those who did not take foolish risks.
Why is recession such a dirty word? If they intervene -- it'll just cause a painful depression so let the market work itself out. Nobody gets hurt by the wide-eyed optimists and leveraged HFs playing with OPM. Markets have been up for 4 years -- throw the bears a bone.
Posted by: ari5000 | Sep 7, 2007 2:07:35 PM
ari5000.
recession is very painful for the comman man....and none of the governments want it on their watch....and they dont care about inflation.
if things stay bad, i am expecting steep rate cuts starting on 18th sept (start with .25, and do it every month till inflation catches up).
i wont be surprised if the rates go all the way to 3%
Posted by: techy2468 | Sep 7, 2007 2:24:42 PM
Exactly, and if the average consumer believes we are/or will be in a recession they will change (cut-back) their spending patterns accordingly
I believe the reason we have averted serious recession thus far is middle aged Americans and older are the only ones that remember them and as for people like myself, late forties, my parents were the ones navigating the impact not me. So expecting the larger population to cut back remembering the scarcity of money effects of recession may take a while to sink in.
Posted by: stormrunner | Sep 7, 2007 2:33:45 PM
Isn't elevated inflation without wage inflation a bad thing and just lead to a recession anyway?
Posted by: Adam | Sep 7, 2007 3:45:22 PM
