The Big Picture | November 2007

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Friday Night Jazz: Favorite Holiday CDs

Friday, November 30, 2007 | 05:30 PM

Its that time of year: It started around Halloween, and by now I am already tired of walking into stores and getting assaulted with endless repetitions of really bad, really corny Xmas music we've all heard far too many times to enjoy any longer. (I say, F&%k Rudolph!)

Here's a way to get into the holiday musical spirit without having to endure the usual annoying cloying tunes. This is one holiday-themed list that won't make you ill.

Since we first mentioned these CDs years ago, many of them have been remastered. And once again, we see many of them on sale at Amazon for under $10.

Enjoy!

1. Ella Wishes You a Swinging Christmas

There truly is no better Christmas album than this one. It is 180 degree from all that junk holiday music you hate: Recorded in 1960, it is without a doubt the swingingest Christmas album ever recorded.

A Jazzy big band, brilliant arrangements and Ella's perfect voice make this album a must have Christmas albums, period.

Even though I already own this, I fear I must add this remastered version of Ella Wishes You a Swinging Christmas, Ella Fitzgerald

2. A Charlie Brown Christmas

The classic Peanuts Christmas Jazz Masterpiece: For those of a certain age, "the first time you listen to this disc you will undoubtedly be transported directly back to your childhood" (one reviewer noted)and thats absolutely true.

Indeed, for lots of us, this was our first introduction to Jazz -- and Vince Guaraldi is still a great intro. A must have. A Charlie Brown Christmas: The Original Sound Track Recording Of The CBS Television Special

3. Oscar Peterson Christmas

Sophisticated yet unobtrusive, this CD is an ideal jazz instrumental backdrop to all your holiday activities. Peterson mades this warm, mellow album accessible to non-Jazz buffs, while at the same time keeping it sophisticated and interesting enough for afficianadoes to enjoy. This CD, along with the Ella disc, are two of my favorites. Its perfect for sipping an evening cocktail and sitting in the dark with nothing on but Christmas lights. Oscar Peterson Christmas

4. December, Piano Solos

December holds the distinction of single-handedly putting Windham Hill on the map. This collection of solo piano works crossed over from new age to popular to seasonal.

I always loved having this as one of 5 CDs on the carousel (back in the days of 5 CD disc players). Yes, kids, there was a shuffle play before the iPod. December, Piano Solos: 20th Anniversary Edition, George Winston >

5. Merry Christmas from Motown

A terrific collection of favorite Motown artists doing all the usual songs; The work was interesting enough that the series from Motown saw a few more versions of this after the success of the first one.

This first collection is all Motown A-list: The Temptations, Diana Ross & The Supremes, Jackson 5, Smokey Robinson & The Miracles and Stevie Wonder.

Merry Christmas from Motown (Various Artists)

6. A Winter's Solstice: Windham Hill Artists

Following the success of December, this album became one that built a Windham Hill tradition of New Age seasonal music / mixed artist collections.

They are now up to number VI in the Winter Solstice Series. A Winter's Solstice: Windham Hill Artists

>
7. Christmas with the Rat Pack

Break out the cocktail shaker, its time for some Christmas drinks with Frank, Sammy and Dino! This is a boozy holiday compilation, a perfect retro lounge soundtrack for a bachelor pad. My favorite comment about this: "the novelty of having three of the 20th century's most notorious sinners belt, whoop, and sing the praises of sleigh bells, roasting chestnuts, and the virgin birth would be enough to recommend this dizzy, 21-track delight, but there's actually some rewarding pop archaeology here as well."
Christmas with the Rat Pack: Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin Sammy Davis Jr.

8. Wintersong

Sarah's elegantly beautiful voice mixes some traditional (but not ubiquitous) Christmas songs along with some more modern holiday tunes (John Lennon's "Happy Xmas (War is Over)" and Joni Mitchell's "River"). If you enjoy her lovely and haunting voice, you will most likely enjoy this collection. (I suspect this collection may grow on me) Wintersong, Sarah McLachlan

9. James Taylor at Christmas

Nicely balanced between pop and jazz selections, with more stately hymn-like fare and balladry. Anything JT does manages to sound fine via his charmingly understated, mellow, soulful voice. (and a must own for JT fans) James Taylor at Christmas

10. Rhino: Swingin Christmas and Ultra-Lounge: Christmas Cocktails, Part One (2 way tie).

These two are similar hipster recordings:

Ultra-Lounge is a martini-and-mistletoe combo from the late 50s/early 60s. Think of the Doris Day movies of that era (or even Tony Randall's), and you get the picture of the big band sound on many of the tracks. Its very retro, and features the likes of Nat King Cole, Dean Martin, Lou Rawls, Julie London, Jackie Gleason, Peggy Lee, Billy May, and Les Brown. Ultra-Lounge: Christmas Cocktails, Part One

The Rhino collection digs deeper back to the 40s to more recent cuts -- a diverse collection of songs covered by Louis Armstrong, Louis Prima, Woody Herman, Lionel Hampton, Esquivel, The Manhattan Transfer, Vic Damone. (Les Brown is the only artist present on both discs).

Rhino: Swingin Christmas

>
That should be enough to keep you warm all winter!

History of the Dow

Friday, November 30, 2007 | 01:30 PM

in Markets | Technical Analysis

How's this for some chart-porn?

Just beautiful . . .

~~~

Acck! Would whoever sent me this gorgeous chart please reveal themselves? I cannot seem to find you name

New Home Sales Cut in Half

Friday, November 30, 2007 | 11:30 AM

in Corporate Management | Data Analysis | Real Estate

I was chatting with a friend about our earlier post taking apart the New Housing Sales data (Sales drop 23.5%), and he asked -- "Gee, how far do you think that's from the top?"

A few clicks later -- and courtesy of Asha G. Bangalore, we learn that sales of new single-family homes are down 47.6% from their peak in July 2005.

To contextualize this, if the current path continues into 2008, Centex CEO Timothy Eller said to Bloomberg, "This looks like it's going to be the deepest correction of any housing correction since World War II."

Truly amazing.

Sources:
Existing Home Sales - Sales and Prices Are Down, Inventories Keep Climbing Up
Asha G. Bangalore,
Northern Trust, November 28, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/28wh2o

Housing Slump's Third Year Will Be `Deepest' Since World War II
Dan Levy and Brian Louis
Bloomberg, Nov. 30 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aW1lrGeadgHI&

Rally Continues on Bernanke Comments

Friday, November 30, 2007 | 09:59 AM

in Credit | Economy | Federal Reserve | Inflation | Psychology/Sentiment

Markets up smartly on the heels of Bernanke's speech last night. The panic had become palpable, leading to dovish comments from Bernanke and Kohn. Thus, as we discussed on Monday and Tuesday, the Christmas Rally has finally arrived. (Kudos to Guy Ortmann, Howard Lindzon, and Mike Panzner, who all pretty much nailed this one)

You should read Bernanke's full speech (here), but the money quote is below:

"The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to shape the Committee’s outlook for the economy; however, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October. Investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions, prompted in many cases by credit-rating agencies’ downgrades of securities backed by residential mortgages. The fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing), and increased short-term funding pressures. These developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors. Needless to say, the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy."

Careful out there. We may get snow this weekend!

Source:
National and regional economic overview
At the presentation of the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce, NC
Board of Governors of Federal Reserve, November 29, 2007
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20071129a.htm

New Home Sales Rebound! (Sales drop 23.5%; Prices fell 13%)

Friday, November 30, 2007 | 06:30 AM

in Data Analysis | Economy | Real Estate

Yesterday morning, Commerce released the New Residential Sales data.

Encouragingly, the media has caught on to the monthly nonsense built into the way numbers get reported, as evidenced by this WSJ headline: New-Home Sales Post Modest Gain Because Prior Months Revised Down

As we noted same time last month on "No, New Homes Sales DID NOT Rise . . .", the game is to report the present UNREVISED latest data versus the revised lower last month's data.

Example: September 2007 sales of new one-family houses were initially reported at 770,000, up 4.8% from the prior months downward revision of 735,000.

As we warned, that phantom 4.8% gain was likely to disappear when the revisions get reported: Surprise! September got revised down to 716,000 -- that swung the monthly numbers to a loss of 2.6%. Not very astonishing -- all you need to do is read the data and do the math.

For the latest month of data, we see the same pattern emerge:

- The year-over-year change from October 2006 is minus 23.5%; (The statistically significant margin of error was ±10.3%).

- The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2007 dropped 13% to $217,800 -- a significant drop from October 2006 price of $250,400; (average sales price dropped exactly $1,000 o $305,800). Monthg to month, prices fell 8.6%.

- Initial number of for new one-family houses sold October 2007 was 728,000 -- this will likely be revised downwards, also winging it to a loss.

- The fractional initial unrevised gain of 1.7% has a margin of error of ±11.0%, and therefore is not statistically significant.

- Inventory improved, falling 6.7%, representing an 8.5 month supply at the current sales rate.

NOTE: New Home Sales are a measure of contract signings, and do not reflect cancellation rates, which remain significantly elevated in the 20-40% range.

~~~

While Homebuilders have been doing what they can to cut inventory levels, the problem they face is competition from existing homes for sale -- which make up more than 80% of total Homes for sale inventory.

Chart courtesy of Barron's and Econoday

Sources:
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN OCTOBER 2007
Commerce Dept, Novermber 29, 2007
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

New-Home Sales Post Modest Gain Because Prior Months Revised Down
JEFF BATER
WSJ, November 29, 2007 10:27 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119634282761107912.html

iPod, Sansa, Zune

Thursday, November 29, 2007 | 07:30 PM

in Digital Media | Technology | Web/Tech

Of all the portable media players I have used (and thats lots), none compares very favorably to the iPod.

But as of late, the gap between them is closing:

Today, long time Apple buff David Pogue gave a pretty nice review to the Zune. And I've spoken to many Sansa users who are very happy with that as their musical gadget of choice.

Its funny to me that Apple spent so many years as the oddball, anti-establishment PC. Now, Steve Jobs has become THE MAN, and other mainstream companies like Sandisk and Microsoft have become the plucky contrarian device makers.

Its somewhat amusing.

Today's NYT had two articles about burgeoning iPod comptitors: The new SanDisk Sansa View, and the revised Microsoft 2nd Generation Zune.

The Times noted the new SanDisk Sansa View compares favorably to the iPod Nano from Apple, at least on paper:

The View comes in 8-gigabyte ($150) and 16-gigabyte ($200) versions, while the Nano has 4 gigabytes ($150) or 8 gigabytes ($200). The View has a 2.4-inch screen as opposed to a 2-inch screen on the Nano. SanDisk claims 35 hours of audio and 7 hours of video playback on a single charge; the Nano claims 24 and 5. The View has a built-in FM radio; the Nano requires a $25 accessory for radio play.

And there’s more. The Nano’s storage capacity can’t be expanded, while the View can add as many as 8 gigabytes using a MicroSD card. The View is bigger than the Nano, about the size of an open slider phone, weighing in at 2.9 ounces compared with the Nano’s 1.74 ounces. In this case, bigger may actually be better"

And then Pogue's review of the Zune was not too bad either:

"You can navigate the Zune’s bright, clear, animated software by clicking the dial at any of its four compass points; select something by clicking the center; and — here’s the twist — scroll through lists by rubbing the pad’s face. Music-player companies have struggled for years to come up with a controller as good as the iPod’s click wheel; Microsoft, in Zune 2.0, has finally done it. The sound quality is very good, especially if you use the 80-gig Zune’s included earbuds. They’re not hard disks like the iPod’s and those of the smaller Zunes; they’re soft rubber bulbs that snuggle securely into your ear canals, sealing out the outside world. . . The 80-gig Zune is still thicker and chunkier than its iPod rival, too."

Me? I'm still an iPod guy:

Here are some of the iPod features that the Zune lacks: Games, alarm clock, stopwatch, world clock, password-protected volume limiter, graphic equalizer, notepad, auto-synched copy of your computer’s calendar and address book, and Disk Mode, which lets an iPod serve as an external drive for carrying around computer files. Above all, you may miss that thriving virtual bazaar of iPod accessories: more than 3,000 stereo docks, cases, car adapters, and so on, compared with only a handful for the Zune. Here are some of the iTunes software features missing in the Zune’s software: Smart Playlists, which assemble groups of songs based on criteria that you specify (“80’s up-tempo songs I haven’t heard in three months”), choice of visualizers (screen-saver effects that dance to the music), closed captioning for videos and TV, Cover Flow view, and a graphic equalizer. The Zune store is missing a lot of iPod features, too: TV shows, movies, audio books, monthly allowances and comprehensible pricing."

Sources:
A Portable Multimedia Player Takes on the Apple Nano
STEPHEN C. MILLER
NYT, November 29, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/29/technology/personaltech/29view.html

Microsoft Challenges the iPod (Again)
DAVID POGUE
NYT, November 29, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/29/technology/personaltech/29pogue.html

Hollywood Studio Exec Explains The Writers' Strike

Thursday, November 29, 2007 | 04:30 PM

in Digital Media | Film | Television

A studio executive explains the Hollywood writers' strike (as written by striking Colbert Report writers).

Bloody brilliant.

Also, the AMPTP finally fights fire with fire, and uses the internet to counter the WGA's ugly smear campaign.

Hysterical.

via pmarca

Combined Value of Leading Credit Sources

Thursday, November 29, 2007 | 02:30 PM

in Credit | Derivatives | Finance | Financial Press | Technical Analysis

Today's chart-porn is this depiction of the tightening credit cycle from a front page NYT article. The chart itself was too salacious for the front page, and had to be buried deeper into the paper . . .

chart courtesy of NYT

Source:
As Lenders Tighten Flow of Credit, Growth at Risk
PETER S. GOODMAN
NYT, November 29, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/29/business/29lend.html

No Conspiracy Theory -- Just Data

Thursday, November 29, 2007 | 11:53 AM

in Data Analysis | Psychology/Sentiment | Taxes and Policy

One of the things people do not understand is a basic truth about the BLS, BEA, Commerce Department, and other government data sources. I get constant emails warning me of the dark cabals manipulating the official releases.

While I have been critical over the years of the models and methodologies employed, I do not believe this is any grand conspiracy.

Sure, the headlines are often misleadingly spun, but the data is all there for whoever wants to peruse it. Indeed, if you strap on your green visor, you can find all of the data releases for Inflation, Unemployment, GDP, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, etc. The non-seasonally adjusted non hedonics, no substitutions data is all right there. You need only bring a critical eye and a dollop of skepticism, and you can usually deduce the real meaning beneath the spin.

In fact, the Truth is actually much worse than any conspiracy: Its as if the government is saying:

"Conspiracy theory? Ha! We don't need to bother fabricating anything -- we dump ALL of the data to the web each month, and that site gets less traffic than a dog's blog in Kuala Lumpur.

We just think you couch potatoes are too lazy, too dumb, too easily distracted by other nonsense to really look at the actual data. Heavy lifting? Actual thinking? Working to figure out what is really going on? Don't make us laugh!"

And you know what? They'd be right.

Even most conspiracy theories are just a lazy approach to the data . . .

GDP=4.9% (also, I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn)

Thursday, November 29, 2007 | 09:40 AM

in Consumer Spending | Data Analysis | Economy | Inflation | Psychology/Sentiment

Here's the WSJ lede on GDP:

"The U.S. economy soared last summer, growing at a rate much stronger than earlier estimated, but the earnings of companies were flat, the government reported Thursday.

Gross domestic product rose at a 4.9% annual rate July through September, the fastest quarterly pace since 7.5% in third-quarter 2003, the Commerce Department said.

The new, 4.9% estimate for third-quarter 2007 GDP reflected a revision up from a previously reported 3.9% increase. Higher inventories and exports were behind the government's revision to GDP, a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy."

Bloomberg added:

"The world's largest economy grew at an annual rate of 4.9 percent, the most in four years, according to revised data today from the Commerce Department in Washington. The pace is a percentage point stronger than estimated last month and follows a 3.8 percent rate in the second quarter." (emphasis added)

This 4.9% number is one of the more "fanciful" government releases you will see in your lifetime, (outside of the state run media that exist only within totalitarian dictatorships).

Did this past quarter feel like the strongest growth quarter in 4 years?

Let's begin with what we know about Q3 prices: They saw significant increases -- yet the price index deflator was a 9 year record low of 0.9%. Rex Nutting observed: "Because of the way in the price index is constructed, it likely understates real-world inflation, and thus overstates real growth."

Residential fixed investment, the GDP component that includes spending on housing, plunged by 19.7% in the third quarter (but Investments in structures increased 14.3%).

Profits for the 3rd quarter flipped negative, dropping 8.5%.

We have seen consumer spending falter, with the crucial opening salvo of the holiday weekend down 3.5%. That's no surprise, given that second-quarter wages were revised lower by $44.8 billion. As a result, real disposable incomes fell 0.8% in the second quarter, instead of rising 0.6% as the Commerce Department had previously reported.

~~~

Question: How can Q3 GDP be 4.9% with corporate earnings, housing and retail sales so awful? Forget Goldilocks, this fairy tale sounds more like Cinderella . . .

Chart courtesy of Barron's

Sources:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2007 (PRELIMINARY)
CORPORATE PROFITS: THIRD QUARTER 2007
U.S. Department of Commerce, November 29, 2007 8:30 a.m.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2007/gdp307p.htm

Economy Grew 4.9% in 3rd Quarter, Up From Previous Estimate of 3.9%
JEFF BATER
WSJ, November 29, 2007 9:38 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119634282761107912.html

U.S. Economy Expanded at 4.9% Rate in Third Quarter
Courtney Schlisserman
Bloomberg, Nov. 29 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ajeZ0OYVe4.o&

U.S. GDP revised up to 4.9% for third quarter
Corporate profits fall even excluding subprime write-downs
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, 9:14 AM ET Nov 29, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/22o75t

Inflation? What Inflation?

Thursday, November 29, 2007 | 07:01 AM

A tale of two headlines:

Inflation Fears Hit Eurozone

and

Goldman Sees Funds Rate Cut to 3%

Won't someone please explain this to me?

How is it possible that the regions of the world with strong currencies -- like Europe, U.K., Australia, and Canada -- are having inflation problems. And yet at the same time, the nation having a record low currency -- i.e., the United States and our Dollar -- doesn’t seem to either inflationary pressures (At least according to official CPI data). And we seem to have little concern about further currency induced price increases.

Am I the only person who finds this incongruent?

If Goldman Sachs is correct, and the Fed does eventually cut rates to 3% -- what might that mean for various dollar priced commodities like Oil & Gold?

Probably very little -- if (and this is a big IF) we are in the throes of a recession. But what if the Bulls are right, and this is merely a mild mid cycle correction?

A 3% Fed rate could mean Oil at $150 and Gold at $1200.

>
Excerpts after the jump . . .

Sources:
Inflation fears hit eurozone
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and Krishna Guha in Washington
FT, November 27 2007 18:02
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55ff8ca6-9d10-11dc-af03-0000779fd2ac.html

Goldman Sees Funds Rate Cut to 3%
Greg Ip
WSJ, November 27, 2007, 9:26 am
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/11/27/goldman-sees-funds-rate-cut-to-3/

Continue reading "Inflation? What Inflation? "

Internet Radio Slowly Closing Down

Wednesday, November 28, 2007 | 07:53 PM

in Digital Media | Music

Its been quite a while since I let loose with a "the-Recording-Industry-is-too-dumb-to-live" rant.

Well, I'm overdue:

Thanks to the newly implements royalty rates, several major web broadcasters are on the verge of shutting down, including Yahoo and Time Warner's AOL. (Yahoo's Launchcast is the largest Web radio site.)

The 38% percent increase in royalties to air music was simply too great to allow broadcasting to continue.

Bloomberg had the scoop:

"Yahoo and AOL stopped directing users to their radio sites after SoundExchange, the Washington-based group representing artists and record labels, began collecting the higher fees in July. Those royalties may stifle the growth of Internet radio, which increased listeners 39 percent in the past year, according to researcher ComScore Inc. in Reston, Virginia.

As a result, the number of people using Launchcast fell 11 percent to 5.1 million in October, according to ComScore. AOL Radio users declined 10 percent to 2.7 million from 3 million. Radio sites attracted 51.2 million U.S. visitors last month, more than a quarter of all U.S. Web users.

Radio sites have been "dealt a severe blow,'' said Jeffrey Lindsay, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. "It seems very unlikely that at this stage a solution will be reached.''

Wired previously reported that:

The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia has set dates for the first part of the appeals process initiated by DiMA, NPR, IBS, AOL, Yahoo, the National Religious Broadcasters Noncommercial Music Licensing Committee, and other webcasters; Various groups of webcasters who filed appeals will have to submit their first briefs to try to convince the court why an appeal is so necessary by February 25, 2008.

You can see why the industry would want to raise fees: With terrestrial radio dying, and CD sales on the downslide, its important to prevent any additional promotion of the products.

Here's a suggestion: Why don't the artists not affiliated with major labels (Eagles, Radiohead, Pearl Jam, James Taylor, etc.) as well as Indie artists undercut the labels, and offer web broadcasters a cut rate?

Perhaps a little competition might be good for everyone . . .

Source:
Yahoo, AOL May Abandon Web Radio After Royalties Rise
Meg Tirrell
Bloomberg, Nov. 28 2007
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a0pKOrcpw6yE

Webcasters' Appeal of Royalty Rates to Begin in February
Eliot Van Buskirk
Wired, November 20, 2007 | 3:35:45 PM
http://blog.wired.com/music/2007/11/the-us-court-of.html

Unusual eBay Warning

Wednesday, November 28, 2007 | 03:30 PM

in Digital Media

A very funny post via The Trading Goddess:

Look closely . . .

Market's Back-to-Back Streak

Wednesday, November 28, 2007 | 01:00 PM

in Contrary Indicators | Investing | Markets | Trading

Well, the Christmas Rally we discussed on Monday and Tuesday has finally arrived.

Indeed, like the NY Knicks, the Markets have finally pieced together two consecutive winning days.

Since the decline that began on October 30th, the S&P 500 has gone 19 days without having more than one winning session in a row.

I have been following this ever since my friend Paul first asked about what the failure to have two consecutive back-to-back winning days actually means. I was speaking with Mike Panzner about this earlier in the week. Mike noted:

• The longest such streak (since 1999) was the 24-day run that ended on 9/21/01. The second longest streak was 22 days, which ended on 3/21/01. There have been two other streaks of 21 days each, ending on 10/3/00 and 4/29/02, respectively.

• Except for the post 9/11 streak, which marked a climactic V-bottom low in the equity market, other spans seemed to define the first leg of a downdraft that "paused" for anywhere between 4 and 14 days before it resumed.

• Visually speaking, the pattern that developed when those prior one-day-wonder streaks ended was a "flag," which in technical analysis terms, often implies that a move -- in this case, the downtrend -- is about half-way over.

• For what it's worth, the same also holds true for the two shorter streaks of 16 days that ended on 1/28/03 and 4/1/05, respectively.

• Based on past history, then, it seems that once the current streak ends ( i.e., we see two or more winning sessions in a row), the risk is that it won't be long before the market begins another push lower.

I would add one item to Mike's comments: The wild swings in the markets, +/- 2%, with violent up 200 or 300 point days don't typically come in healthy Bull markets -- these spasms are symbolic of Bear markets.

Prices Fall, Inventories Rise, NAR Spins

Wednesday, November 28, 2007 | 10:50 AM

in Credit | Data Analysis | Psychology/Sentiment | Real Estate

Sales of existing homes fell to a record low in October. What was the largest drop in home prices -- ever -- wasn't enough to revive sales.

Inventory levels also climbed to record highs.

The data highlights:

• The national median existing-home price (All housing types) was $207,800 in October -- down 5.1% year over year (October 2006 = $218,900)

• Total housing inventory rose 1.9% to 4.45 million existing homes. This represents a 10.8-month supply. Inventory rose 1.9% for the month.

• Single-family home sales were down an astonishing 20.8% from October 2006.

• The median existing single-family home price was $205,700 in October, down 6.3% from a year ago.

• Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 20.2 % percent from October 2006; they are off 9.1% from last month.

• The median existing condo price was $223,500 up 4.9% percent from a year ago.

Chart courtesy of NAR, Lehman Brothers via Real Time Economics

Of course, the biggest laugh was the National Association of Realtors headline: Mixed Results For October Existing-Home Sales; Mortgages Improving.

If by mixed you mean a combination of terrible and horrible, then I guess its mixed.

Rex Nutting pulled this gem of a quote:

The fundamentals of the market don't support a further decline in sales, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR, who said low mortgage rates and job growth should keep sales from falling. While the subprime mortgage market has disappeared, the Federal Housing Administration is picking up its lending.

"I don't anticipate any further major sales declines," Yun said. If sales do continue to fall, "it would be a major concern" and "would raise the risk of an economic recession."

Its worth reminding readers that Yun (nor his predecessor, the oft-hallucinatory David Lereah), have never in the past anticipated any sales decline.

If they were completely honest about this failure of expectations (rather than shilling for a clown outfit) the monthly commentary would read: "Geez, sales fell again? Wow, we didn't see THAT coming. No worries, next month should be fine . . ." >

Source:

Mixed Results For October Existing-Home Sales; Mortgages Improving
NAR, November 28, 2007
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/ehs_oct07_mixed_results.html

Supply of homes on market at 22-year high
Rex Nutting
MarketWatch, Last Update: 10:14 AM ET Nov 28, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/32coee

See also:
Study Warns of Decline In Value of Homes
DAMIAN PALETTA
WSJ, November 27, 2007 5:57 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119615781800405134.html

7 Suggestions for Scott Adams:

Tuesday, November 27, 2007 | 11:07 PM

in Books | Digital Media | Psychology/Sentiment | Weblogs

Scott Adams, who I have long adored as both a writer and a cartoonist (see this post), has decided to dramatically cut back his blogging (as per this blog post: Going Forward)

No, no, no, no, no!

I believe this is a mistake. If he wants to cut back blogging for its own sake, that's one thing. But to allow the unsavory mass of syphilitic cretins, the under-dwelling bridge trolls, the ugly philistines to unduly influence him truly is an absurdity, one that cries out for correction.

With any luck, this post is that correction.

~~~

Dear Scott,

We don't know each other, but I feel your pain.

I want to -- selfishly -- make a few suggestions, with the hope that a little tough love will get you to resume regular posting.

Please consider all 7 of these suggestions:

1. Embrace the Churn

Every public entity needs to understand churn: Netflix, Mobile carriers, magazines, HBO, Broadband providers, etc. all understand that for each new 10 clients they get, they lose a few. Sometimes, quite a few.

Your widespread publicity means that you will be pulling up a lot of jellyfish in your tuna nets. Its inevitable, can't be helped.

Understand this, expect it, embrace it. You can start by throwing the jellyfish back.

You do that by:

2. Engage in Triage:

In wartime, medics on the front line make life and death decisions. Sheer numbers mean you must engage in some on-the-fly battlefield medicine. You cannot save everyone, so concentrate on who you can save. This will be the audience that is of value to you, both as a writer, and monetarily.

There will be some difficult choices you will have to make. Some must die so others can live.

You cannot rescue every poor bastard you come across. Out of millions of readers, don't be afraid to lose the nettlesome, annoying, time consuming pinheads. Even the borderline cases must go -- its strictly a numbers game. Given the math, even those "with potential" must get the heave-ho if they are psychically draining.

You will find readers by the thousands that you want to address. Smart, loyal, creative, humble, beautiful strangers whose comments and contributions are a joy to behold.

The rest of the dolts? Well, you need to learn to say:

3. Fuck 'em.

Shake loose some of that California niceness you developed, and re-find your inner New Yorker.

If an in-DUH-vidual is offended or insulted by something you wrote, and feels the need to declare they will never read Dilbert again, well, then Fuck 'em -- you didn't want them reading you anyway.

Trust me when I tell you, for each inflamed hemorrhoid you lose, your world becomes a better place. And, the improvements are cumulative.

This is a staple attitude you must bring to writing on the web. Without it, you will be chewed up and spit out like so much chaw. This is a deep philosophical breakthrough you must achieve in order to survive.

I've read many of the comments posted on your blog, and it appears there is no DMZ line. Figure out what is acceptable to you, and post some guidelines (sample). Anything over that line get deleted, and the author's IP address gets banned. If you are really feeling puckish, you can create a hall of shame.

Hey, its your house. I don't let my guests piss in the potted plants -- neither should you.

4. Intern Up:

Of course you don't have time for this -- thats why on the 4th day, the Lord created interns.

Working for you would be a career highlight for some aspiring writer/literary agent/ass kisser. Train this young sycophant well to follow the edict of #3: All trolls, asshats and weasels get deleted, banned and shamed.

Of course, to do this, you need to:

5. Toughen Up!

The web is a dangerous brew: Mix one part anonymity, another part self-righteous English lit majors, throw in some political trolls, along with a snarling pack of ironically impaired cretins, and Voila! The perfect vehicle for human idiocy to express itself in its fullest flower.

Toughen up! You are not in a small town anymore.

You are a sensitive type -- an artiste. But that doesn't mean you need to eat shit from a bunch of neer-do-wells, pederasts, or Ann Coulter fans.

I find it abhorent that a group of keyboard-pecking monkeys can shout you down. Instead, you should:

6. Respond Appropriately to the Unwashed Masses:

Issue:
(Said in a whiney, nasal voice: We don't want to pay for the book, it was on line for free.

Possible Responses:

Wrong: Gee, I'm sorry, I didn't consider that. Maybe that was a mistake on my part.

Right: Hey, asshole -- buy the goddamned book or I will run your puppy over with my Sears Craftsman 24 hp 50 inch ZTS 7500 Zero Turn Riding Mower (big endorsement bucks) and mail you back the shreds! What is this, a fucking charity?

Its kind of a subtle difference, but if you squint, you may see what I mean.

7. Remember Sturgeon's Law: Science fiction writer Theodore Sturgeon once said "95% of science fiction is crap. Come to think of it, 95% of *everything* is crap."

If any meatspace law carries over to this series of tubes, it is that one.

Sift out the crap. Keep the best 5%

~~~

I hope you found this helpful.

And I hope you keep publishing online . . .

UPDATE: November 28th, 2007 2:45pm

A reader reminds me of this prior post from December 2006:

Generic Blog Post & Comments

Holiday Book Shopping II

Tuesday, November 27, 2007 | 06:30 PM

in Books | Digital Media

I admit it -- I am a book junkie. I own many more books than I could ever possibly read in a given lifetime, and/or leave lying casually strewn about upon coffee tables and other horizontal surfaces.

However, I cannot help myself -- when an interesting and/or Intriguing book comes along, I simply must have it. Whenever I come across someone who can develop an original idea and communicate it in a compelling way, I find myself delighted.

Hence, the fascination with books that intrigue the mind and imagination. If you missed it, our last venture out turned up some interesting book ideas. The same approach here: These are interesting if unrelated titles that most book lovers you know would be delighted to receive as a gift . . .

~~~

Born Standing Up: A Comic's Life by Steve Martin:

"Obsession is a substitute for talent." So said Steve Martin, for a certain generation is the epitome of the Stand Up. I am particularly interested in how he lucked into a job writing for The Smothers Brothers Show, and how he figured out what worked on stage.

SF Chron: "Martin paints a portrait of a man with a mission. He learned timing from playing 25 short shows a week at the Bird Cage Theatre at Knott's Berry Farm through his college years. Studying philosophy at Long Beach State College yielded a lifetime's worth of inane material. He kept notes on his performances, constantly tightening and revising his act, aiming for surreal, strange, physical, "unbridled nonsense."

His 20s were spent on the road playing bars and coffeehouses in the days before comedy clubs. It was grueling and lonely. He opened for Ann-Margret in Las Vegas, where Elvis told him he had "an ob-leek sense of humor."

My favorite line -- typical of the goofy, existential, absurdist nature of his comedy, its gotta to be his closer: "Well, we've had a good time tonight, considering we're all going to die someday."

~~~

Musicophilia: Tales of Music and the Brain by Oliver Sachs

I loved reading "Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat."

If the oddities of the workings of the human brain intrigue, then you will find Sach's narratives both touching and fascinating.

Publishers Weekly: "Sacks is an unparalleled chronicler of modern medicine, and fans of his work will find much to enjoy when he turns his prodigious talent for observation to music and its relationship to the brain."

"This book leaves one a little more attuned to the remarkable complexity of human beings, and a bit more conscious of the role of music in our lives."

Several interesting videos by the author can be found here; NYT Review here

~~~

Casting a Shadow: Creating the Alfred Hitchcock Film

Was Hitchcock an auteur? An exhibit at the Block Museum of Art at Northwestern University suggests he was more of a colloborator, presenting more than seventy-five sketches, designs, watercolors, paintings, and storyboards that, together, examine Hitchcock’s very collaborative film-making process.

I saw this over the Thanksgiving weekend, and found it fascinating. Hitchcock fans in the area should definitely attend it, and for those not within a short drive of the Evanston campus just outside of Chicago, this book will provide much of the flavor. Fans will find it fascinating.

~~~

Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle

I have been a fan of Military history and Strategic Warfare, and became intrigued by this book, mostly due to the spectacular reviews:

"Stephen Biddle has written perhaps the best volume on the causes of battlefield victory and defeat in a generation."

"A major achievement. . . . combines a sophisticated formal model with analysis of critical case studies of actual battles."

"Simultaneously makes major contributions in political science, military history, social science methodology, and contemporary policy debates."

"A worthy book on the never-ending debate over why land wars are won and lost . . . well worth reading, owning, and remembering."

~~~

Schulz and Peanuts: A Biography

I loved the strip most of my life. Who knew that Charles Schulz was such a tortured artist and profoundly unhappy man? Apparently, he hated the name Peanuts, which was foisted on the strip by his syndicate.

For all the joy Charlie Brown and the gang gave readers over half a century, its creator was overwhelmed by depression, and generally an uncomfortable

Nearly 250 Peanuts strips are woven into the biography, demonstrating just how much of his life story Schulz poured into the cartoon. In one sequence, Snoopy's crush on a girl dog is revealed as a barely disguised retelling of the artist's extramarital affair.

WSJ book review here; Book excerpt here; Author's podcast here; Video here.

~~~

The Secret History of the American Empire: Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and the Truth about Global Corruption

Better known for Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, Perkins offers an entertainingly disturbing view of how the American government has wreaked havoc around the world in support of American business.

The US tendency to distribute foreign aid to corrupt Third World leaders only hurts our long term interestes, as we have seen in Iraq, Iran, South America, etc. When leaders object, the CIA steps in, to destabilize their government or assassinate him if necessary.

Sure, the book has lots of unconfirmed anonymous sources and a taste for conspiracy theories. Yet few people will argue that the 3rd world loans (and the "expert" advice that comes with it) are as often as not is harmful.

It looks like an interesting follow up to Confessions of an Economic Hit Man.

~~~

The Curious Art of Jim Flora

The first retrospective of one of the defining visual stylists of the 1950s: Ray Olson writes:

Old-LP collectors, in particular, are in for a shock of recognition when they open this almost-LP-jacket-sized album: "Hey, this is the guy!"

Jim Flora (1914-98) is the guy who made those astonishingly energetic early LP cartoon-art covers, on which, for instance, jazzmen were playing so hot that their bodies flew apart like unstrung marionettes or, at the other extreme, melted together. Cubism, Miro, Klee, the great muralists Orozco, Rivera, and Siqueiros, all influenced Flora.

Flora's work always provokes a smile . . .

US Leading Global R&D Spending

Tuesday, November 27, 2007 | 02:30 PM

in Corporate Management | R&D | Taxes and Policy

Nice interactive data set, from FT:

Source:
US ahead as global R&D spending up 10%
John Willman in London
FT, November 11 2007 18:21 | Last updated: November 11 2007 18:21
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4246da8a-9080-11dc-a6f2-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Tuesday, November 27, 2007 | 02:30 PM | Permalink |