Dude: Settle the F%$# Down
My reputation over the past few years -- fairly or unfairly -- has been that of a Bear.
However, even I want to tell Barton Biggs to settle the f#$% down. Dude, spark up a fatty, and chill out. You are scaring the natives.
What's this about?
Biggs recently published another book, and it sounds a bit like the typical paranoic survivalist tomes:
"Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with "seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.''
The "etc.'' must mean guns.
"A few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,'' he writes in his new book, "Wealth, War and Wisdom.''
We hardly get to cite Biggs here at the TBP -- an alliterative mention in 2004 (Barton Biggs Better Begin Browsing Blogs . . .), when he disasterously shorted Crude Oil in the high $40s (good times), and a mention of his last book is most of our Biggs coverage.
As to Hedgehogging, I must admit to being I was underwhelmed by it. It was marginally interesting in a gossipy kinda way, but I lost interest about half way through.
I haven't seen this book yet, but I admit I am fascinated by the subject. I am not a big believer in either the efficient market hypothesis nor the Wisdom of Crowds -- future discounting mechanism yes, but wisdom? Hardly -- but I do find the subjects intriguing and worthy of further discussion.
War, markets, contrary indicators -- "Buy at the sound of cannons, sell at the sound of trumpets" kinda thing is right up my alley. I may have to check this one out . . .
>
Source:
Biggs's Tips for Rich: Expect War, Study Blitz, Mind Markets
James Pressley
Bloomberg, Jan. 30 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601088&sid=aImBVle3OMyo&
Wednesday, January 30, 2008 | 07:16 AM | Permalink
| Comments (54)
| TrackBack (0)
add to de.li.cious | 
digg this! | 
add to technorati | 
email this post
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e54ffd75ff8833
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Dude: Settle the F%$# Down:
Comments
When Kudlow puts Biggs in the Brady Bunch box and agrees with him... that's the buy signal.
And it will happen eventually, so keep some powder dry.
Posted by: Grodge | Jan 30, 2008 7:30:32 AM
Buying remote land etc. as safety net isn't that crazy given the soaring price of oil. Attend a few of investment banker Matthew Simmons' lectures - he is a billionaire and has done extensive research on the subject of peak oil
Posted by: Bud | Jan 30, 2008 7:53:35 AM
If the Democrats sweep, an increasingly possible situation, they are going after everyone they decide has "too much" money. I know I ain't rich but I have a few ounces of gold on deposit in Switzerland and a few things going in other countries (in a very small way). You are a dreamer if you don't take Charlie Rangel at his word: Your money is his.
Posted by: Howard Veit | Jan 30, 2008 8:08:29 AM
Hey, I thought we were all supposed to be accumulating piles of Yen...
Posted by: Chief Tomahawk | Jan 30, 2008 8:14:10 AM
There are people scattered about the US who went to ground decades ago, sure some collapse or other was coming. I do see Peak Oil as a problem, but it's kind of disconcerting when those old survivalists pop up, looking for something to validate their decades-old move. I've seen some do that ... show up for Y2K or now PO.
Chances are we'll work through this problem too, though it might take a little more adjustment for PO than for Y2K.
Posted by: odograph | Jan 30, 2008 8:17:53 AM
Ummm, Howard, stop watching so much Fox News. Your brain is melting.
As for Biggs, his advice is in sync with Proctor and the Elliott Wavers (nice name for a 60s band). If times get as bad as they're expecting, social unrest is going to be at a level we've never seen. Imagine the Great Depression squared without the behavioral restraints of the 30s.
By the way, EWs also say that this will be an extremely socially conservative time in other respects, and that dictatorial government is more likely. Somehow, that seems like Republicans in power, but who knows....
Posted by: dark1p | Jan 30, 2008 8:22:59 AM
Dominican Republic villa is looking better and better to MHO
Posted by: sergei | Jan 30, 2008 8:35:35 AM
anyone remember Barton Biggs talking about a stock market melt-up back in the fall of 2007?
Or Prechter talking about end times circa 1990?
nobody knows nothin'.
And if you think the economic royalist wing of the GOP doesn't think your money is theirs, just like Charlie Rangel does... or that guys like Greenspan, Bernanke, John Snow, Paul O'Neill are any more competent than guys like Rubin and Summers, you're dreamin'.
Posted by: druce | Jan 30, 2008 8:40:39 AM
Make sure you're sitting down before you fire up these charts.
Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Cut Furiously
TheFinancialNinja
Posted by: Ben Bittrolff | Jan 30, 2008 8:43:29 AM
Posted by: Howard Veit | Jan 30, 2008 8:10:24 AM
__________
I'm willing to bet your gold and overseas investments were purchased during the past 7 years. After what we've witnessed during that time, I don't see the Dems being such a threat to your wealth. When we have social breakdown, it won't matter who is in power - the needs of the masses will trump your ability to hold wealth - regardless who, if anyone, is in charge.
Farmland.
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Jan 30, 2008 8:43:53 AM
Actually Barton Biggs is not that far off the mark. Investment wise, farm land is appreciating very nicely, thank you, and seed and fertilizer are in somewhat short supply.
We have a 500 gallon diesel tank to avoid State road taxes and a few beef critters mixed in with the horses. I guess I didn't know I was a survivalist, just making prudent investment decisions.
This IS a replay of the 70's with subtle changes in variables but the outcome will be the same. Expact many more books like this. The 'hoarding' phase has yet to begin. We will no doubt enact anti hoarding laws.
I have no strong opinion about peak oil. Seems to me that price determines supply but idiots make laws that screw up the balance of nature. Interesting future decision. Do you want to eat your corn/sugar or pour it in your gas tank?
Sign of the times? Had a family who stopped by to see if I would rent them an acre plot next to the Farm to Market road. They want to start a truck garden. Who is it that makes canning lids? Ah, Ball Corp.
Posted by: Ross | Jan 30, 2008 8:49:22 AM
Amongst the first in line economists who work at the IBs who will profit from the Greenspan Put is Roach whose name fortunately goes better with the "light up a fatty" line of lighten it up thought. I remember Forbes, once a fine business magazine, featured Biggs in an early 90s piece saying with Clinton in charge the U. S. economy will tank, he isn't buying U. S. stocks.
I read Hedgehogging too. It was supposed to be a reveal the mysteries book, but it only revealed a bit of garter belt for men's socks. All I remember were the charts at the end of where different investment vehicles made their money, the top 20% of venture capital made 80% of the returns and within that the top 2% made, and so on.
Survivalist style, he also advocated buying jewelry as the ultimate hedge for when you're trying to flee a country and need to bribe the local border police.
Within that, I don't believe that the first impetus of all American agencies is to protect Americans. Look at Cheney and the 2001 CIA warnings for example.
Posted by: chris | Jan 30, 2008 8:58:52 AM
I'm sitting on the S.C. coast, with moon-shine and sunshine. Bring it on! Hheehee
Posted by: Justin | Jan 30, 2008 9:00:43 AM
Peak Oil is junk science.
Posted by: Joe | Jan 30, 2008 9:00:52 AM
Farmland and Gold . . . Sounds good to me. Why don't you compare that portfolio with yours 1yr 5 yrs and 20 yrs out and see who did better.
Posted by: nick power | Jan 30, 2008 9:01:27 AM
Peak oil is basic geology.
So all science is junk?
Posted by: chris | Jan 30, 2008 9:05:17 AM
Dude, we haven't had a good TEOTWAWKI outbreak since Clinton and Y2K and all the righties stocking TP, guns and ammo thinking the world was going to end soon.
I always chuckle at the same jokers who stock gold coins for such an event. May just be me, but I'd rather have food and wine than a shiny piece of metal.
Posted by: Mr. Obvious | Jan 30, 2008 9:11:58 AM
Joe wrote, "Peak Oil is junk science."
Let me take a wild guess, here - Intelligent Design is cutting edge science?
Posted by: Winston Munn | Jan 30, 2008 9:19:41 AM
"Peak oil is basic geology."
The there's basic economics. At a certain price level, extraction of oil from tar sands and shale become profitable enterprises. We are running out of the inexpensively extracted oil. The more expensive oil is there and may become less expensive as technology improves. Whether the higher price results in economic feasibility of substitute fuels is the $64 question.
Posted by: The Dirty Mac | Jan 30, 2008 9:20:42 AM
So you're this flabby old guy, sitting in your luxury villa on your nice cushy "farm", drinking your wine, eating your frozen Omaha steaks, and passing your days counting your gold coins.
Surrounded by tens of thousands of starving hungry ordinary Nascar type folk with rifles and shotguns who've been watching WWF and hunting all their lives. How long do you think that's gonna last?
Posted by: Bob A | Jan 30, 2008 9:25:04 AM
"Intelligent Design is cutting edge science?"
Commodities can be rationed by price. Superstition is available in unlimited amounts free of charge.
Posted by: The Dirty Mac | Jan 30, 2008 9:25:52 AM
"The there's basic economics. At a certain price level, extraction of oil from tar sands and shale become profitable enterprises. We are running out of the inexpensively extracted oil. The more expensive oil is there and may become less expensive as technology improves. Whether the higher price results in economic feasibility of substitute fuels is the $64 question."
At what point does it take more in energy cost to extract the oil than its worth?
Posted by: The Jersey Bull | Jan 30, 2008 9:33:14 AM
"Peak oil is junk science"
Joe, funny how you have no facts to back it up. Mr. Simmons, a conservative republican, made a fortune doing oil M&As. His hard core data research convinces me that supply is plateauing as India & China ramp up the middle class and cars for everyone. Look at the facts. All this baloney about price and supply. When price goes through the roof things change so keep exercising b/c we might be using bicycles.
Posted by: Bud | Jan 30, 2008 9:33:58 AM
Bob A, damn, I forgot to dig a moat. Actually the Nascar types work for me part time and I always share. You can always use a posse on the Pondorosa.
Posted by: Ross | Jan 30, 2008 9:37:02 AM
When push comes to shove shiny piece of metal will buy you food and wine (unless it gets as bad as the fall of Constantinople. In that case, nothing can save you). You have dollars? Cool! Throw them on the fire! BWahahahaahaha!
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Jan 30, 2008 9:44:51 AM
