BLS Overstated Job Creation by 14.38% in 2007

Friday, February 01, 2008 | 09:31 AM

For those of you who have been wondering, here is the data on the 2007 Benchmark Revision.

The good news is when looking at the total employment situation, believe it or not, BLS was pretty accurate. Their models of employment came within 0.2% of the actually measurement of jobs.

Where they fell down was accurately measuring NFP job creation. Based upon their own benchmark revisions, BLS overstated new job creation by a whopping 19.95% 14.38%.

Nearly every month, the subsequent revisions were rather large:
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2007 NFP Benchmark Revisions

Bls_revisions_212008_2

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I suspect this says less about BLS, and more about the difficulties in trying to accurately measure new job creation in near real time.

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Source:
Benchmark Article
Daniel Jackson
BLS, February 1 2008
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbmart.htm

PDF version
http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbmart.pdf

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Friday, February 01, 2008 | 09:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (42) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

the huge revisions are a benefit to this administration because it decided to switch to a model that could show whatever they want WHENEVER they want.

Coincidence that the NFP #'s started to fall off a cliff and then POOF we now have a model that doesn't allow that to happen.

job creation , in this country, is the big myth. ever since someone decided that China was a cheap alternative...say 20 or so years ago.

Ciao
MS

Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 1, 2008 9:42:29 AM

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