Herb Greenberg Calls Out Larry Kudlow
Following last week's NYT coverage of the blogger debate on excessive negativity, I was amused when I saw this blog post from my pal Herb Greenberg:
"But to be taken to task for having rightfully proven that much of America is perched too precariously on too big of a pile of debt — and that this housing thing wasn’t and still isn’t totally “contained” — is simply, well, wrong-headed.
(I can still see Larry Kudlow rolling his eyes at me, on set at CNBC, when I would mention, for the umpteenth time, the significance of the looming mortgage mess — and that this mess would extend beyond subprime to cut across all FICO scores; notice that neither Barry nor I have been on his show lately.)"
Now, I'm friendly with Larry, and would never want to embarrass him on the air -- but Herb is not the first person to make this point. Indeed, several other people -- including some from CNBC -- have also noticed, and commented, on that coincidence.
During the past year, on air, several of Larry's guests have told me:
- I was too real estate obsessed (2006);
- Sub-prime was contained; (2007)
- Real Estate didn't matter; Its a small portion of the economy (2006/07)
- The economy is fine (really) (2008)
The last was also the title of a recent self-delusion in the oft-hallucinatory WSJ Op-Ed pages.
Cognitive dissonance can be a bitch . . .
>
Source:
Too Negative — Who, Me?
Herb Greenberg
Marketblog, 7:51:47 PM January 27th, 2008
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg/2008/01/too-negative-who-me/
>
~~~
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Friday, February 01, 2008 | 11:45 AM | Permalink
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Comments
Its a good thing no one takes the WSJ Op-ed page seriously. ;)
Posted by: Finance Monk | Feb 1, 2008 11:54:15 AM
Don Coxe this morning. Whole thing is really good, but at about the 8 minute into it off and on, he gets into the housing market, financials,..all the relevant topics. Highly recommended listening.
http://events.startcast.com/even...nts/199/B0003/ #
Posted by: Stuart | Feb 1, 2008 12:00:15 PM
Who did Kudlow used to shill for?
(ED: Bear Stearns)
Posted by: cathompson | Feb 1, 2008 12:00:18 PM
speaking of CNBC promoters: does anyone know when Cramer came out and publilcly told his followers to sell the Fantastic 4, or at least GOOG and AAPL? i know he now poo-poos them, but when was the Sell?
Posted by: scorpio | Feb 1, 2008 12:01:20 PM
I don't want to upset you too much, but housing will improve this year. It's is bottoming now and buyers will be out looking for deals. Spring will bring large groups of buyers. I don't know if you noticed, but interest rates were just lowered a lot.
Where I live, prices haven't been hurt much, although time on the market is longer than usual.
And everything that comes with improved housing markets will rise with the tide.
Anyone who thinks housing will stay depressed forever is, charitably put, wrong. The up-cycle will be strong by year end and the industry will look normal in a year. Perpetual goldilocks is wrong, but geez, why would anyone think that people will stop buying houses forever?
Posted by: cinefoz | Feb 1, 2008 12:02:59 PM
It could be I'm just a newb, but there is no subtlety whatsover in Kudlow's attempts to push a positive-outlook message, despite the statements of his guests.
A few months ago, he had a young guy on (can't remember the name, unfortunately) and the guy kind of went bulldog a bit, overriding Kudlow with negative (though very reasoned) statements about the current state of affairs and the likely worsening to come. Kudlow got a bit... cornered-sounding, let's say, and went fully ad-hominem; he must have used the phrase 'too many lattes' about five times in the next 120 seconds, essentially accusing the guy of being an effete doomsdayist who couldn't hold his caffeine.
This level of cynical message control would normally be pretty worrisome in any media, but it occurs to me that since so much of the stock market is perception and trend, perhaps the guy lying through his teeth telling everyone that things are going great is actually having a positive effect on the market, and is thus to be commended.
Kind of an interesting inversion of morality. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.
Posted by: vasudeva | Feb 1, 2008 12:03:06 PM
Mr. Kudlow is belligerent. Mr. Kudlow is intellectually dishonest. He oft reminds me of a close relative who also kicked a problem with John Barleycorn. Regrettably the worst of behaviors persist even after the drink is long past abandoned. There is an old saying, "There is nothing worse than a dry drunk" - a saying Mr. Kudlow oft brings to my mind. I'll have to say a prayer for him.
Posted by: sanjosie | Feb 1, 2008 12:05:46 PM
Morgan Stanley is Crudlow's former employer
yesterday's rally??? the repo money had to be returned today.......you know that pile of cash that is forked over for your neighbor's boat loan they get. New one announced today.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/02/01/afx4603830.html
The last sentence is not a good sign going forward....
Fresh Piles of cash to do what they please...except lend it to anyone....LOL
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 1, 2008 12:07:31 PM
BR said:
The last was also the title of a recent self-delusion in the oft-hallucinatory WSJ Op-Ed pages.
reply: No argument there. Those people are batshit crazy.
Posted by: cinefoz | Feb 1, 2008 12:09:37 PM
cinefoz, I know I've called you out plenty, but seriously, your analysis of why certain markets (stocks, RE) look attractive is critically flawed. Is the foundation of your argument for why real property will do well this year actually "because it's been going down for too long"? Do you have any conception of valuation, or that you can calculate a PE ratio for real property? I strongly suggest that you read Professor Schiller. The PE ratio for residential real property is currently far higher than the histroical average. Real property could conceivably fall by 30% this year and only then be fairly valued based on historical norms.
Posted by: Adam | Feb 1, 2008 12:11:53 PM
cinefoz-
you crack me up...
There is this little problem of increasing housing inventory that you (and many other's seem to totally ignore) Based on resets that is about to get MUCH LARGER.
But go ahead buy, buy,buy, as you said it yourself "it's all good"
please someone else pick this apart I laughed too hard and pulled something
"I don't know if you noticed, but interest rates were just lowered a lot."
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 1, 2008 12:12:54 PM
Adam,
No, I don't waste my time on that crap.
Thanks for asking.
Posted by: cinefoz | Feb 1, 2008 12:14:47 PM
the same valuation argument is being used for the financials.
"they've already gone done X so they HAVE to go up"
Good luck with that....
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 1, 2008 12:15:32 PM
michael schumacher:
Didn't Cramer also work for Goldman Sachs at some point?
Posted by: Joe Klein's conscience | Feb 1, 2008 12:16:04 PM
MS,
Normally I wouldn't respond to you because you really don't make any sense most of the time. But, really, 1 + 1 does NOT equal 3, although it appears your mind might think that it does. Read some books.
Posted by: cinefoz | Feb 1, 2008 12:19:04 PM
cinefoz (or his kind) in Summer 2000:
"I think the NASDAQ is a raging buy right now. I mean, look how far it has already fallen. These companies will be the leaders for years to come."
cinefoz, you are going to get burned badly unless you study your history soon.
Posted by: Adam | Feb 1, 2008 12:19:26 PM
yes he did and makes no bones abut it
Why his consistent pumping of GS is so comical.
Holes appearing in the MSFT/YHOO deal already
DJN -Microsoft may need more time, money to close Yahoo deal 12:13pm
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 1, 2008 12:20:40 PM
Kudow's Faith based Economics
Did anyone notice Larry Kudlow's spirited response to Mc Cain's criticism of the mortgage lending? "People were lying about their incomes..." in Kudlow world no credit checks needed.
Posted by: Frank Mayo | Feb 1, 2008 12:24:32 PM
Eveything cinefoz posted at 12:02:59 PM is true.
Anybody in here wanna' buy a house?
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Feb 1, 2008 12:26:19 PM
based on your flawed reasoning since there is absolutely NO analysis whatsoever it seems that you have the math problem.
Go take a look at REAL interest rates for actual home loans....you'll see they have not dropped AT ALL, in some cases they have risen.
Don't let facts get in the way of a good story....that seems to be your canned response
The irony of your statement is that I really do not have to respond since you contradict yourself so well at 12:19.....
Good Luck with losing money....you will following that folly of a strategy.
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 1, 2008 12:26:51 PM
Marcus
You continue to amaze. So few words, so much observation...
Posted by: Ross | Feb 1, 2008 12:38:48 PM
At least there is no fear that Murdoch will turn the op ed page of the WSJ into a group of babbling conservative fools. They are already there.
cinefoz--if housingtakes off later in the year as you so deleriously suggest, won't that reinflate the bubble? The results of that would make what we are going through now look like T ball as compared to the majors.
Posted by: larry | Feb 1, 2008 12:39:44 PM
Barry,
I sense that you and Herb pulling out the "I told you so's" and reiterating the record of the many slings and arrows directed your way as you made the clarion call is another sign of a bottom. They are starting to pile up and it may be time to start putting some of this cash to work.
~~~
BR: Well, Pat, you may be right - But you are a little late.
We called for a tradeable low 10 days ago -- On CNBC (Morning Call appearance) and right here on the blog here (NYSE % of stocks > than 200 Week Moving Average)
Posted by: pat | Feb 1, 2008 12:42:35 PM
CINEFOZ
guys like you are gonna make me rich
Posted by: SWF | Feb 1, 2008 12:44:00 PM
that goes double for you PAT
Posted by: SWF | Feb 1, 2008 12:45:06 PM
