NYC Temp: 11 degrees
I wake up early this morning, send Max out to get the papers, and look at the Oregon Scientific thermometer.
11 Degrees.
Watch energy prices today -- oil and nat gas in particular. While local temperatures should have little impact on global energy prices, sometimes the psychology impacts traders. And Chicago is utterly freezing also.
Is this rational?
Not at all -- but sometimes, us monkeys ain't so rational . . .
Monday, February 11, 2008 | 09:00 AM | Permalink
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In Chicago, we officially have no degrees. Not a one.
Posted by: Street Creds | Feb 11, 2008 9:11:08 AM
You want irrational? I'll give you irrational.
Putting Chevron and BofA in the Dow?
Talk about contrary indicators...........
Posted by: Ross | Feb 11, 2008 9:11:54 AM
Hey Barry?
Where's you awesome weekend link list?
T.
Posted by: Toro | Feb 11, 2008 9:16:46 AM
It's so cold in the Windy City, the neighborhood flasher can only describe himself to passerbys...
Posted by: Boom2Bust.com | Feb 11, 2008 9:42:45 AM
Paris, France also is at 11 degrees.... but celsius ;-)!
Posted by: mat | Feb 11, 2008 9:43:48 AM
I like the monkey angle. Get long jacuzzis.
http://www.snowjapan.com/e/features/snow-monkeys/monkeys/snow-monkeys-official.jpg
Posted by: KirkH | Feb 11, 2008 9:44:58 AM
No linkfest this weekend due to a funeral.
I probably could have cranked one out, but i just wasn't in the right headspace for it . . .
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Feb 11, 2008 9:47:19 AM
Hey, my wife is so cold, when she uncrosses her legs, the furnace kicks on.
Thank you Rodney
Posted by: Street Creds | Feb 11, 2008 9:52:08 AM
This won't help thawing out any chill in the markets...
AIG Discloses `Weakness' in Credit-Default Swap Accounting
By Hugh Son
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer by assets, said auditors found a ``material weakness'' in how the company values its credit- default swap portfolio.
AIG hasn't yet determined the decline in value that will be stated in its 2007 financial statements, the New York-based insurer said in a regulatory filing today.
AIG is caught cooking the books with their $500 billion CDS portfolio. AIG was claiming these are insuranse contracts which do not have to be marked to market. The auditors are telling them they are derivative contracts which have to be marked to market.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080211/ai...211/aig8- k.html
AIG has been advised by its independent auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC, that they have concluded that at December 31, 2007, AIG had a material weakness in its internal control over financial reporting and oversight relating to the fair value valuation of the AIGFP super senior credit default swap portfolio.
Posted by: Stuart | Feb 11, 2008 9:59:02 AM
Very true. People have a hard time acknowledging that their own experiences might be representative of the population as a whole.
Posted by: Walter Thatcher | Feb 11, 2008 10:00:03 AM
Here's a better link to that yahoo story.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080211/aig8-k.html
Posted by: Stuart | Feb 11, 2008 10:01:04 AM
It's sunny and warm (high about 65 degrees) here in Alabama. Too warm for running the marathon/half-marathon we had yesterday--at least for me--I'm not a good sunner runner.
We have basically three seasons in Alabama (since long before the global warming nonsense gave everyone a psuedo-scientific reason to bitch about the heat). The seasons are Almost Christmas (late October thru the Christmas/New Year holidays), Almost Summer (Jan--Feb/Mar/Apr, depending on the year) and Summer (the rest of the time). Almost Summer is almost over it seems. Whew--I hope this summer is a bit less miserable this year than last, but things aren't looking too good if Almost Summer is any indication.
Posted by: Don | Feb 11, 2008 10:01:50 AM
We Texicans have only two seasons.
Huntin season and fishin season.
Posted by: Ross | Feb 11, 2008 10:08:20 AM
Since Friday it has been over 80d here in SD.
85d in my backyard.....
I get paid back in spades in the summer though, sometimes you need an astronaut suit to go outside in Aug.-Sept.
Alot nicer than what most of you are dealing with today though...
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 11, 2008 10:10:28 AM
Putting Chevron and BofA in the Dow?
The town pump and the town dump?
So can they officially call the index the pump and dump index?
I don't know where I'm getting the dump part from but the first part is accurate
Posted by: DavidB | Feb 11, 2008 10:22:19 AM
"...us monkeys?"
uh oh, Barry, you've done it now... get ready for the onslaught from the Creationist stock marketers out there... where would Jesus invest?
...and I'll gladly take the wintertime zero degree weather up here in Ann Arbor instead of the tropical mugginess in the summertime deep south. I wouldn't last a week in N.O. or Atlanta in August.
Posted by: bluestatedon | Feb 11, 2008 10:26:09 AM
-13 windchill this morning.
Interesting news from AIG this morning. I read Hussman's essay every MOnday and his essay this morning was timely... here's a quote
"The main annual reporting period for financial companies will occur over the next few weeks. If this is going to be a problem, the first indication will be observed as either a) a delay in the financial report of some mid-size financial corporation, or b) the appearance of audit opinions that are not entirely “unqualified.” While it's generally not problematic for an audit opinion to include a fourth paragraph noting a change in accounting method, those changes should always be interpreted by asking what, if anything, a company might have gained by doing so. Expressing a material uncertainty, or going so far as to express an adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion, could potentially be a major blow not only to the company in question, but to the stock market as a whole. These reports will be worth monitoring. "
Posted by: Vermont Trader.. | Feb 11, 2008 10:34:05 AM
Everybody talks about the weather, but no one buys out of the money puts on it.
Posted by: E | Feb 11, 2008 10:47:44 AM
THAT'S IT!!!! The lousy markets, all the credit market dysfunction.. it's because of the weather.
Posted by: Stuart | Feb 11, 2008 10:57:45 AM
Barry,
You have a butler named Max?
Posted by: Ross | Feb 11, 2008 12:05:56 PM
No big deal Barry. We're back in the 40s by Wednesday.
Posted by: Al Czervik | Feb 11, 2008 12:08:43 PM
Not sure it is irrational for NG to be reacting to the cold weather. In fact, it is probably very rational.
NG, unlike crude oil, is primarily a domestic market. Supplies in other parts of the world are pretty close to irrelevant to U.S. pricing as the majority of supply comes from the U.S. and Canada, and the role of imported LNG is miniscule.
The cold weather and thus increased heating demand is leading to higher then expected drawdowns and we are getting closer to the 5-year average after a long time period of being well above it.
Bottom line, big difference between crude and NG and weather is a primary demand driver for NG so higher prices are a rational response.
Posted by: Mike C | Feb 11, 2008 1:10:50 PM
Thanks Barry.
Sorry about your loss.
Posted by: Toro | Feb 11, 2008 1:18:03 PM
Hey Barringo,
Fuck you and your 11 degrees. It's springtime where I am.
--
New subject: Funeral
All my sincere bests to whomever should receive them.
--
Next new subject: Amy
What a waste! What a miserable waste!
If only somebody could help that poor girl control herself, and if only somebody could get her off the shit lyrics and into the proper orchestration, that girl could rewrite the nature of blues, jazz and stylistic pop. Nobody can hold a candle for her, not even Sinatra himself.
Handled properly, she'd make people forget Billie, Ella and Frank.
--
Barringo, tell me I CAN'T compartmentalize!
Posted by: Eclectic | Feb 11, 2008 1:19:19 PM
BTW, Barringo:
It was a bigger dud than the Al Capone's Vault fiasco was for Geraldo, in case you didn't think I noticed.
Lame... lame... lame.
Posted by: Eclectic | Feb 11, 2008 1:29:27 PM
eclectic-
en fuego!!
orchestration?? Nahh who needs that when I can....hey is that a crack pipe??
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Feb 11, 2008 1:30:46 PM
Ross,
down here in Alabama it's always fishing and hunting season so long as you're related to the game warden...and well...this is Alabama, you know.
Posted by: Don | Feb 11, 2008 4:22:40 PM
My propane bill last month was $5/gallon. Spring can't come fast enough for my pocketbook.
Posted by: Walker | Feb 11, 2008 4:59:01 PM
I lived in Fairbanks for three years. I remember watching the evening news in the dead of winter and having the weatherman say, "tomorrow's high will be 44 below and the low will be 52 below". I would yell at the TV and ask who in the hell could tell the difference? And then laughing. I live in a much warmer climate now which I prefer.
Posted by: Pat G. | Feb 11, 2008 5:21:09 PM
The rain festival
From Sept. one to Aug. three one
Here in Seattle
Posted by: badhaikuguy | Feb 12, 2008 1:35:14 AM
Probably Global Warming ;)
Posted by: Hmmmmm | Feb 12, 2008 1:27:17 PM
