Quote of the Day: Housing Boom!
What I found so amazing during 2006/07 was the brimming (tho misplaced) self-confidence of the Housing Bulls . . .
Ouch:
"Don't buy it. For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007's housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won't be any housing disaster. We won't have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.
You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn't be so strong now
Did you know that housing sales are up in the last few months, not down, and that inventories are lower than six months ago? We're accelerating, not landing. This is true not just in housing but also pretty much across the board."
- Kenneth L. Fisher
Forbes, 02.26.07
Recommendations: Buy Pulte, Toll, Beazer
Source:
Housing Boom!
Kenneth L. Fisher
Forbes, 02.26.07, 12:00 AM ET
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0226/110.html
Monday, February 25, 2008 | 06:00 PM | Permalink
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Comments
We need to find out what kind of drugs Fisher is using. The stock market is a group of folks with money looking for a place to put it to work. On Friday and today the markets have rallied 300 points just on the news that AMBAC & MBIA would either be rescued or keep their AAA ratings. Please, find other investments before its too late.
Posted by: Pat G. | Feb 25, 2008 5:46:43 PM
Who is this Ken Fisher. I know only that he is associated with Forbes but he clogs my mailbox with all kinds of hype.
From what I understand, he must be Kudlows love child.
Posted by: Ross | Feb 25, 2008 5:50:22 PM
Hey, even a stopped clock can be wrong 86,398 times a day....
Posted by: Uncle Jeffy | Feb 25, 2008 5:53:45 PM
if Ken were any smarter he'd be cinefoz. LOL
Posted by: cathompson | Feb 25, 2008 5:56:09 PM
C'mon folks, the world is not at an end. You bears need to quit it.
Posted by: beanieville | Feb 25, 2008 6:01:46 PM
That's just cruel. But damn funny. Fisher is a marketing machine attached to a small investment firm. Unfortunately, that looks like it's about to become a liability for them.
Posted by: ajw | Feb 25, 2008 6:02:19 PM
America has already crash landed.
Gets poorer by the day.
I am bullish on Commodities and Asia
Posted by: rickrude | Feb 25, 2008 6:06:00 PM
Really, when you're speculating on your own hook, guys who cop an attitude like Fischer, drop a load of dung and then walk away and claim it doesnt stink don't merit being cut a whole lot of slack by the adults in the room.
Posted by: cathompson | Feb 25, 2008 6:13:22 PM
Of course inventories are lower than 6 mos. ago...that was at the end of the summer, when sellers still didn't grasp that their overpriced house wasn't going to sell at current list price...give it 60 days and look at the inventory trend then...it won't be pretty, and will likely crush last springs YoY inventory #'s. But in MD now we've got new metrics for calculating DOM, just to screw over buyers AND lenders into thinking a house off the market only 90 days (instead of the old 180) is a fresh, new listing...
Posted by: Nikki | Feb 25, 2008 6:31:04 PM
Good article.
PHM: 2/26 ~ 40
Today ~ 15
TOL: 2/26 ~ 32
Today ~ 22
BZR: 2/26 ~ 42
Today ~ ...7.7
I like the numbers. He got the housing market right.
Posted by: laMed | Feb 25, 2008 6:32:14 PM
Does Wall Street know this? Somebody should clue them in, before they start looking incompetent.
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Feb 25, 2008 6:40:11 PM
Barry,
Thanks for exposing Ken Fisher as a goldilocks perma-bull promoter. I believe his track record in the tech bust was just as bullish. We need for outing of these charlatan fools.
Posted by: 1bullseye | Feb 25, 2008 6:43:32 PM
Fisher is a bright guy who made a bad call. His investment business is very large and quite successful. In general, he is worth listening to -- he gets much more right than wrong.
And, when I was formulating my current investing strategy, he was willing to waste 3 e-mails on a relative nobody like me back in 2000. Helped me a lot; my ideas are my own, but he gave me help in figuring our what avenues to ignore.
And, when I read what he wrote on real estate back in early 2007, I just shook my head. Everyone makes mistakes, especially me.
Posted by: David Merkel | Feb 25, 2008 6:47:48 PM
Early Summer 2007 he said there was no credit crunch on a Bloomberg TV special. This guys is consitent at least, consistently WRONG!
Posted by: crispy&cole | Feb 25, 2008 6:53:52 PM
How come no one sees inflation as a huge problem. Look at Oats futures, they went up 5% today. They don't have anything to do with Ethanol.
Posted by: John Borchers | Feb 25, 2008 7:19:17 PM
Well, whichever of the homebuilders stays in business is probably a really good buy right now. My money is on... other things. That is too risky a play. Also, thanks Ken Fisher! Your big packets were my best kindling all winter long. Hopefully the gases generated by burning his collateral aren't as toxic as the advice itself.
Posted by: philip | Feb 25, 2008 7:21:34 PM
John,
That is like saying "what does wheat have to do with corn?" Oat futures sure do have something to do with ethanol. They are something a farmer can be doing other than producing ethanol. Even if they don't compete head-to-head (I am not a grain farmer so I can't say) they certainly compete indirectly for ground, farmers, and resources.
Posted by: philip | Feb 25, 2008 7:24:31 PM
When I was a naive young man, Ken Fisher's Forbes columns were gospel. Anything he writes about now I ignore and have been financially rewarded.
Posted by: steelhead | Feb 25, 2008 7:29:32 PM
When I was a naive young man, Ken Fisher's Forbes columns were gospel. Anything he writes about now I ignore and have been financially rewarded.
Posted by: steelhead | Feb 25, 2008 7:30:02 PM
I actually checked Fisher's book out from the library last spring. (I got smart like that after paying retail for too much garbage.) Got thru about 1/4 of it before returning it early. It was like a Tony Robbins feel good program of inane & directionless direction. And who would write the foreword to such a book? None other than the biggest most pathetic financial jackass of all, Jim Cramer.
Posted by: dukeb | Feb 25, 2008 7:39:54 PM
I am in the business and he is an idiot - IT SUCKS and saw it coming 2006 ws peak. Thirty years in the business and we are waiting for more blood......
Posted by: don greenup | Feb 25, 2008 7:41:05 PM
No investor is immune to making a bad call in the market. Fisher has a good long term track record, and has done some interesting research and writing on PE ratios. His dad, Phil Fisher, was a legendary investor who had a huge influence on Buffet & Munger.
This blog should be called
The Big Schadenfreude.
Posted by: kk | Feb 25, 2008 7:41:17 PM
No worries, there's a knight in shining armor so it's all good.
Posted by: dimitris | Feb 25, 2008 8:12:38 PM
The fact is, these companies are enormously leveraged and their debt is killing them. If the Fed cuts short term rates 1.25% and these stocks don't go up, that'd be some seriously bad news. Taking that much off the debt service for some of these companies may mean survival (for a while). It does not mean the dark times are over.
Posted by: Max Rockbin | Feb 25, 2008 8:13:01 PM
"Also, thanks Ken Fisher! Your big packets were my best kindling all winter long."
Philip, If you ever start doing stand up comedy let the blog know as I'm sure you'll pack em in. Excellent!!!
I almost choked laughing on the Chard I'm (sippin) here in the Californee sun. It ain't the cheese that makes our Real Estate a little pricey.
Posted by: Rosevillebill | Feb 25, 2008 8:14:11 PM
