Contrary Indicator: Page Views Skyrocket!
We noted back in February that the surge in page views tends to occur towards a tradable low -- not THE low, but usually one that is good for a few weeks. That last contrary signal worked out quite well.
We got another such signal on Monday -- page views skyrocketed to what might actually have been the single biggest one day total.
In other Contrary Indicator news, it was reported yesterday that Goldman Sachs replaced the perennially optimistic Abbie Joseph Cohen as their chief markets forecaster.
Have a look at the chart below. This suggests a temporary crescendo of bearish activity:
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Above you will find the latest snap of the traffic. Inexplicably, Typepad uses GMT to GMT as their day, rather than having the date be set to the users locale (i.e., midnight to midnight EST).
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I'm writing this Monday night, and hopefully won't be too embarrassed about this Tuesday morning (Ed: Futures are considerably higher this morning). Be aware that Producer Price Index (PPI) and Housing Starts are out at 8:30am, and the FOMC announcement is at 2:15pm, so today is likely to be quite volatile.
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I am curious if any other bloggers saw a similar traffic surge . . .
Tuesday, March 18, 2008 | 08:00 AM | Permalink
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I think it's just your site that gets this traffic, Barry. At times of extreme uncertainty, a lot of us look to you for level-headed analysis that just doesn't exist anywhere else. Don't know about everyone else, but late Sunday night I kept hitting refresh every few minutes to see if you had anything to add.
Posted by: Historicus | Mar 18, 2008 8:09:38 AM
Calculated Risk saw a very large increase in their views and comments as well.
Posted by: Mr. Sparkle | Mar 18, 2008 8:25:20 AM
I agree...traffic in our discussion forums was normal yesterday - but I'm sure people were reading headlines and blogs like crazy.
I know I was.
George
Posted by: Agoracom | Mar 18, 2008 8:27:12 AM
Barry, good job on the show last night. Maybe CNBC should think about replacing Kudlow like GS did with Abby Joseph Cohen. Kudow has not been right on a single thing in the last year, CNBC should give him a mop and keep him away from the on air programing.
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BR: Thanks for the kind words -- I'll get the video up later this afternoon.
Posted by: gunthestops | Mar 18, 2008 8:31:30 AM
Agree, a tradable bottom but not THE bottom.
The entrails of MY owl says 4 to 6 weeks of fair weather. Enjoy!
Posted by: Ross | Mar 18, 2008 8:42:34 AM
A mention in ISI probably didn't hurt your traffic much.
Posted by: Film at 11 | Mar 18, 2008 8:45:57 AM
Barry,
Just a thought. With MF Global and GFI down hard yesterday, could it be "telegraphing" the CFTC will change margin requirments to 50% or more to trade corn, wheat oil etc?
They did this in the 70's.
Posted by: Trigalet | Mar 18, 2008 8:46:15 AM
Interesting - of course you'd have to divide my traffic by 100 but with that yesterday didn't see a surge. Su. did when I put up an emergency focus post a bit but I've been wailing about the credit metastasis for months now. My biggest surge was actually on the Yhoo/MS deal - different strokes.
OT - maybe a tradable low per se but it also tells us something else. Mr. Market really wants to go up because they think this is normal and are ignoring the economic and credit breakdowns. Floyd Norris' recent Rose appearance is a jewel and worth your time. He discusses this "it's time to buy" meme that's going around in context. Yeah they're right if this were a normal cycle. Of course now it's Summers/Feldstein AND Krugman all discussing why it's not. Does it get any more authoritative ? That's two Clark medals btw as well as at least one likely Nobel.
Posted by: dblwyo | Mar 18, 2008 8:48:06 AM
After the crescendo of weekend activity, I am left pondering a couple of unaswered questions:
Does this mean $2 is the new $0?
Are Bear Stearns execs now considered rogue traders?
Posted by: Winston Munn | Mar 18, 2008 8:49:12 AM
Indicative of heightened concern I would think. People seeking answers to address their fears. Good job on Kudlow btw, although when he's set in his thoughts he's a tough nut to crack to give equal air time.
Posted by: Stuart | Mar 18, 2008 8:57:24 AM
It wasn't just you BR. The action in Asia and over here by the Fed over the weekend raised a lot of eyebrows and had everyone(myself included) scouring the net to catch up.
Posted by: Kp | Mar 18, 2008 9:00:10 AM
If you are trying to arrive at the conclusion of "People seem to be turning to the net as much as...or in some cases...in lieu of the TeeVee"...I do believe the tide is slowly turning that way.
Folks are starting to smell a rat in the MSM. 'Bout bloody time!
Posted by: Kp | Mar 18, 2008 9:03:22 AM
My page views were nearly double the average for a Monday in the past four weeks. What's interesting, however, is that my content is light in "financial news" and heavy in logic, self-awareness, and emotional intelligence.
Perhaps people are wanting a momentary escape from the "noise" before diving back in...
On a separate note, what effects do readers here believe the over-abundance of information is having on investor behavior and financial markets? Is the herd more irrational and quicker to respond to news than in the previous Bear Market and Recession? How many people were reading blogs on a daily basis 6 years ago?
Posted by: The Financial Philosopher | Mar 18, 2008 9:09:38 AM
People are trying to hard to catch the bottom. Any negative big day and people jump on it with everything. Eventually they will get burned.
This is not the bottom even short term I don't think. Not with hits like this:
*DJ Goldman's $1B Mortgage Losses Mostly Prime And Alt-A >GS
Posted by: John Borchers | Mar 18, 2008 9:14:21 AM
I have no choice but to tell all my friends to cover all the short positions they built just few days ago! No doubt, they will hit me in a very hard way! This is what trading life means!!!!! F$£K!!!
CAPITULATION! MY WAY!!! Have a good trading day!
Posted by: Ben | Mar 18, 2008 9:15:01 AM
One more thing, I'm not very sure the bull is here, but surely the BEAR(BSC) is killed! A relief!!!
Posted by: Ben | Mar 18, 2008 9:22:10 AM
I am leery of this contrary indicatory - I am afraid that too many are confusing Long Term Capital Management,the company, with Long Term Capital Management, the event.
The only thing that has changed is the perception that one land mine has been sidestepped - but that doesn't mean we're not still in the middle of a minefield, blindfolded.
Posted by: Winston Munn | Mar 18, 2008 9:22:32 AM
Did anyone catch Jon Stewart last night? He started with "There's a little saying in the news business, 'Stocks before whores, and we're all poor'" Hilarious. In addition I'm starting to wonder if I shouldn't invest in weed... at least that makes me happy when it goes up in smoke.
Posted by: pete_bk | Mar 18, 2008 9:32:13 AM
How's this for a contrary indicator: Market opens UP 200.
Posted by: Paul in NYC | Mar 18, 2008 9:34:46 AM
If the FED were not f*cking around trying to save things, all of the shorts would have made a sh*tload of money already. Instead, we get whipsawed for our diligence. I would say that its more profitable to be a sheep, but nah - It's just more comfortable. F*cking lack of free markets.
Posted by: robert | Mar 18, 2008 9:36:50 AM
As I cruise the net for info, I can find calls for deflation, inflation, $150 oil, commodity crashes, opportunities w/ corp debt, tradable bottom for stocks, etc. With this much confusion it appears to me to be in the 3-4th inning, not the end.
Posted by: larster | Mar 18, 2008 9:39:42 AM
Barry, do your spikes in traffic also coincide with big Fed actions? Not trying to burst anyone's bubble (I visit this blog faithfully), just trying to get a larger perspective on things.
Posted by: zero529 | Mar 18, 2008 9:47:49 AM
Posted by: pete_bk | Mar 18, 2008 9:32:13 AM
And, because it's contraband, it's naturally tax-free!
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Mar 18, 2008 9:51:18 AM
It's nice that we have redeeming social value.
Posted by: cathompson | Mar 18, 2008 9:53:17 AM
How many people were reading blogs on a daily basis 6 years ago?
Posted by: The Financial Philosopher | Mar 18, 2008 9:09:38 AM
____
All of this info is free, and should be marked to market.
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Mar 18, 2008 9:53:45 AM
