Existing Home Sales, Non Seasonally Adjusted, Explained

Tuesday, March 25, 2008 | 12:10 PM

A few other data points to note when considering the monthly changes (our earlier NAR Spin discussion):

>
1) February 2009 was a leap year -- the month had an extra day, and without that I sincerely doubt we would have seen any gain (I wonder how they adjusted for that).

>
2) The Composite Monthly Sales for the past 4 years -- e non seasonally adjusted:

Comp_monthly_sales

>

3) The average increase from January to February over the past 4 years has been 7.2%. Yesterday's monthly "improvement" is less than half what we have been typically seeing.

Here's what the percentage change from month to month looks like non seasonally adjusted:

Percentage_change_comp

>

4) Finally, here is the non seasonally adjusted data for the past few years. Note that for the past few years, February is ALWAYS better than January. March, April, May and June all see improvements also:

Ehssalesnsafeb08


>

Special thanks to via Calculated Risk for the data runs . . .

Tuesday, March 25, 2008 | 12:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (28) | TrackBack (2)
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» Pending Home Sales Index falls 21.4% from The Big Picture
I see that the NAR has hired Crackhead Bob as their new headline writer, to wit: Existing-Home Sales to Stablize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2008. In a moment, we will discuss how the NAR managed to get their forecast exactly backwards. Meanwhile, ... [Read More]

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» WSJ: "Inflation is back" from The Big Picture
I'd like to point out a new feature in the usually astute WSJ: Printing erroneous information on the front page. Last month, in a front page, 3rd paragraph snafu, the Journal reported a 2.9% month-to-month change in existing home sales -- a seasonal fa... [Read More]

Tracked on Apr 10, 2008 7:48:27 AM

Comments

If you charted hours of daylight against the above graphs you would see a nice match to the monthly trend, except December would be a bit lower than January.

It is not news that February has more hours of daylight than January.

Posted by: Douglas Watts | Mar 25, 2008 12:40:25 PM

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