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Global Warming Denialists: We Suck at Math Also!

Saturday, March 01, 2008 | 08:26 AM

in Politics | Quantitative | Science | Technical Analysis

"Not only do we misunderstand Science, we're bad at math, too!"

Every now and then, I venture over to other fields to see what the debates look like. The most recent laugher was amongst the global warming denialist crowd.

Why? In 2007, the average global temperatures dropped by 0.595 degrees centigrade. This is a fact. The response from this group was to say (verbatim) "Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming."

Um, no. As the charts below reveal, it does nothing of the sort.

As we say all the time with the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), you look at the overall trend, not any single data point. A monthly NFP of 10,000 does not guarantee a recession, nor does a single month of 200k job gains guarantee an expansion. And neither monthly release eliminates the trend of the prior 100 data points.

All data series have anomalies -- large magnitude points that may be curious, or unusual. To claim that a "Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming" simply reveals a disturbing statistical/mathematical incompetency that is rather embarrassing.

The 20 year and 130 year charts clearly explain what this quite clearly.

The shorter term chart shows a volatile series, with high magnitude aberrations to the upside (1998) as well as the downside (2008):

>>
Yeah! Global warming has been defeated! (1987-2008)

The longer term chart unequivocally reveal a long term trend, as the data points move from the lower left to the upper right

Boo! Global Warming Remains an Ongoing Trend (1880-2010)

Sources: Watts Up With That?

If the above long term chart was a stock, would you short it?

Now, my own views on Global Warming are spectacularly conventional: Take 6 billion people, give them an industrial revolution; then for the next 2 centuries, have them burn all manner of carbon products. Its not too hard to imagine this activity might impact the system in which it takes place.

These aren't the ravings of an enviro-nut. I am a big time energy consumer. I don't lecture anyone about their energy consumption. Anytime someone offers me a ride on a private jet, I jump at it. Yes, I dislike SUVs -- but that's because they are ungainly, unsafe, handle poorly, and go-too-slow. I personally have way too many motorized vehicles, all but one of which skew towards high-horsepower, go-fast, poor-fuel economy end of the scale. Trust me when I tell you a 6 speed manual transmissions in a V12 is not about saving gasoline.

Another disclosure: I have been long oil for 5 years, and quite a few oil companies for much longer. I am not a shrinking violet when it comes to recognizing the ongoing demand for energy, and the role that carbon based products are likely to play over the next decade or longer. I have personally profited hugely from these oil positions.

But I am at heart someone who loves math and statistics, and who finds the abuse of the truth to be offensive. Anyone who claims that a high magnitude outlier within a volatile data series conclusively proves this or that -- someone who chooses to ignore the broader data trend -- is simply putting their own mathematical ignorance and innumeracy on display.

Your mileage may vary . . .

UPDATE: March 1, 2008: 1:45PM

Do not misunderstand my position: I am not advocating pro or con for any specific policy, nor am I arguing against nuclear power.

What I said above is the person who made the statement that the past 12 months average temperature decline has wiped out a century of global warming is a clueless innumerate.

I appreciate the many intelligent statements in comments. My beef is with the chart and the math, not the policy discussion.

Source:

4 sources say “globally cooler” in the past 12 months
Anthony Watts
Watts Up With That? 19 February 2008
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/

The Innumerate (mathematically illiterate):

Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher
Daily Tech February 26, 2008 12:55 PM
http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

Evidence of Global Cooling
Brit Hume
Fox News, Thursday, February 28, 2008
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,333328,00.html

Drudge

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» Reconciling Cold Weather and a Warming Climate from The Big Picture
Yesterday, I criticized those who made the claim that Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming in my usual understated and charming way. I have to admit that the responses surprised me. First, I had no idea so many pe... [Read More]

Tracked on Mar 2, 2008 4:01:36 PM