NFP = -63,000 (Off to Bloomberg TV)
Wow, thats quite a wallop -- the worst jobs report in 5 years:
"Payrolls fell by 63,000, the most in five years, after a revised decline of 22,000 in January, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 4.8 percent, reflecting a shrinking labor force as some people gave up looking for work."
As mentioned, earlier, any one data point is minor -- its the overall direction that is significant. Today's data reflects the prior trend's accelerating weakness.
~~~
I'm off to Bloomberg TV (10:00 - 10:15) to talk about this data point, and where you can hide out during the recession . . .
Source: Barron's Econoday
>
Sources:
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: FEBRUARY 2008
BLS, March 7, 2008
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
U.S. Unexpectedly Lost 63,000 Jobs in February (Unexpectedly?!? Really?)
Shobhana Chandra
Bloomberg, March 7 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJcGRsXmyltU&
Jobs post biggest drop in 5 years
Chris Isidore
CNNMoney.com, March 7, 2008: 8:55 AM EST
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm?postversion=2008030708
Payrolls Declined in February, Increasing Fears of Recession
BRIAN BLACKSTONE
WSJ, March 7, 2008 9:20 a.m.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120489597965119543.html
Friday, March 07, 2008 | 09:39 AM | Permalink
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Comments
I'm not hiding...I'm 100% long QID
Posted by: Dee Leverage | Mar 7, 2008 9:44:11 AM
and now we're almost back to Unch. this is the best place to buy in the best market in the best country in the best of all possible worlds.
Posted by: scorpio | Mar 7, 2008 9:50:10 AM
Scorpio,
I hope you are kidding...the financial sector is melting down. The market is going to be a smoldering crater soon.
Posted by: Dee Leverage | Mar 7, 2008 9:53:53 AM
i'm with u scorpio, at least for today.
Funny, today is the first day in a long time that an institutional salesperson hasn't called me with some rumor.
Posted by: Vermont Trader.. | Mar 7, 2008 9:57:15 AM
The FED has figured out how to "play" the traders...
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Mar 7, 2008 9:58:05 AM
Can we get some new formula for unemployment already?!?
The current one just masks the real story, and lets people hide from the facts.
Posted by: lutton | Mar 7, 2008 9:59:55 AM
Can we get some new formula for unemployment already?!?
The current one just masks the real story, and lets people hide from the facts.
Posted by: lutton | Mar 7, 2008 10:00:04 AM
The bear looks very very tired now. Look at the bounce! STRONG! CNBC wins! Cheers!
Posted by: Ben | Mar 7, 2008 10:00:55 AM
Fresh piles of money falling from the sky soothes all.
Gotta save those piggies...
12k is just another number that we will soon see from below.
regarding C......I wish I could attempt to write off $45 billion and then watch my stock rise.....my first reaction to C's news was "great.....sell them to who?"
that part did not get mentioned at all.
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Mar 7, 2008 10:01:12 AM
I have seen enough...the Dow rallying on AIG and JPM? JPM is getting a call from me right now...$20 Trillion in derivatives...I want some more collateral.
Posted by: Dee Leverage | Mar 7, 2008 10:02:15 AM
And this is with a Birth-Death adjustment of +135K. Please do your as-usual-interesting birth-death analysis, Barry.
Posted by: anony | Mar 7, 2008 10:08:31 AM
Notice how when the market starts proving out the things Barry's been saying for awhile, the teevee channels suddenly start wanting him as a guest multiple times every week.
Good on ya', Barry!
Posted by: Florida | Mar 7, 2008 10:10:46 AM
What a great gift to bears in the financials...short, short, and short them!
Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Mar 7, 2008 10:25:53 AM
How did Matt Nesto get his job? This guy should be doing radio voice overs.
Posted by: Dee Leverage | Mar 7, 2008 10:26:49 AM
If you're rich and you refuse to meet a margin call, isn't that like walking away or jingle mail? Or does it not count if you're rich?
Posted by: Roger Bigod | Mar 7, 2008 10:28:26 AM
on the subject of the jobs report.. there was whisper # of -100k making the rounds the last few days and I would note that without the +38k government jobs created by our small government republican president that we would of hit that #. that would make it the worst private payrolls drop since 03/03
Posted by: Vermont Trader.. | Mar 7, 2008 10:28:31 AM
vermont trader-
Spot on......like the gov't really hired 40k people....
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Mar 7, 2008 10:32:38 AM
aaaaaand we're now in positive territory on all three indices, at least for the moment. It's what I figured would happen — the market just doesn't care all that much about unemployment.
Posted by: bluestatedon | Mar 7, 2008 10:35:14 AM
or rather the market doesn't seem to care about negative unemployment figures. If the numbers had been positive by the smallest amount, I've no doubt that we'd be seeing a big rally.
Posted by: bluestatedon | Mar 7, 2008 10:42:01 AM
sorry but this blog is just as negative as any other blog... Today was the moment to load up on long dollar positions
Why is everybody always so negative at or near bottoms ???
~~~
BR: As I told Bloomberg, we have deeply negative sentiment, which should generate a treadable POP.
We are selling into it . . .
Posted by: LIMIT UP | Mar 7, 2008 10:43:45 AM
there is too much OPM-cash sitting on the sidelines....which will always support the markets...unless of course actual data keeps hammering and sends the earnnigs lower.....which will take time.
stock market has very much become like housing....if the holders dont sell, and new involantary cash keeps coming in(pension/retirement/401k etc) it will definitely be deployed...
Posted by: techy2468 | Mar 7, 2008 10:43:45 AM
but when the employment #'s are good we have all seen the whoosh upwards that is created from that.
It's not that the market doesn't care about it...it ignores it when it isn't what it wants. Since that was not really a recipe for "up" it's pretty easy to see what is going on here.
it doesn't matter what the news is......buying the SPY hand over fist doesn't require a news item to do however it is easier to get away with if it can be attributed to whatever "happy news" is being pushed front and center.
It just so happens that there is a lack of happy news but 12k WILL BE DEFENDED REGARDLESS OF HOW OBVIOUS IT LOOKS.
Is it not obvious to you????
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Mar 7, 2008 10:45:22 AM
Buy Buy Buy! That's the only way to avoid the recession. We have to echo the lip-service of CNBC! Cheers, Dennis!
Posted by: Ben | Mar 7, 2008 10:45:34 AM
Come on guys, I can't beieve you are so negative, so perma-bearish that you don't understand the basics of trading the market. This news has been priced into the market all week (or have you forgotten the 200+ point drop). In a bear market its sell the rumor, buy the news..... To make money, you have to have a little flexibility now and again. Stop being so overly emotional and learn what the market is telling you.
Posted by: Jdamon | Mar 7, 2008 10:54:27 AM
jdamon-
you are the latest person in a VERY LONG LINE of the assumption "police".
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Mar 7, 2008 11:00:44 AM
