Not Enough Bullish Sentiment?
I keep hearing people saying "No one I know is Bullish."
Well, y'all know the wrong people. Just look at the market action, and you will see quite a bit of speculative fervor in recent days and weeks.
Over the past few few months, we have seen all manner of evidence that the bullish ardor is alive and well:
- Today's Dow Industrials opened down at 11,756. The dip buyers have taken it back up to nearly 11,900.
- Several 200 plus down days have seen strong end of day rallies taking markets to flat;
- Punters were buying Bear Stearns (BSC) on Friday, on the (false) assumption a bailout would prove profitible;
- This morning, Lehman (LEH) traded as low as $24.50 this morning, before being driven up to $31;
- Search your favorite websites/commentators/blogs/bobblehead: Quite a few are talking about the Fed rescue, and a "great" buying opportunity;
- It is arguable whether or not the markets may not have fully priced in all of the bad news, to wit: We have yet to trade below January's lows. Someone is buying.
As we have noted, a short, Fed induced rally is a real possibility -- but I look at it as a gift, not the beginning of a new upcycle.
Back to Ralph Waldo Emerson: Look at what they do, not what they say . . .
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There is risk everywhere right now.
Unless you have the actual physical asset in your closet(ie land, bars of gold, a barrell of oil) you have counterparty risk and exposure to the banking system.
Can anyone tell me a place to put your money where it is safe from a systemic financial meltdown and liquid?
I feel safer with 1000 shares of MSFT.
Posted by: Vermont Trader | Mar 17, 2008 10:18:20 AM
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