Pending Home Sales Down 19.6%

Thursday, March 06, 2008 | 10:30 AM

The hallucinogenic spin-meisters over at the National Association of Realtors are once again, misstating what their own data indicates:

Flat Existing-Home Sales Likely Before Gradual Recovery
The volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits.  “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said.  “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year."

This statement reflects a combination of wishful thinking and factual misstatements. Let's review the specifics.

First, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 19.6% from year ago levels. This is hardly a "flat" number, as described by their PR release. This is significant, as the NAR itself notes in the footnotes to their The Pending Home Sales Index: 

"There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons."

Hence, the data that matters most is not the change from December to January, filled as it is with seasonal anomalies, but  rather, the January 2007 to January 2008 comparison. That showed almost a fifth lower than the prior year's index.

When we consider the rest of the data that's out there, its apparent that stabilization is not the correct word:

-U.S. foreclosures hitting another record high
-Inventory at or near all time highs
-Interest rates rising

Well, at least they stopped saying "Bottom" -- after two years of getting that word wrong.

>



Source:
Flat Existing-Home Sales Likely Before Gradual Recovery
NAR, March 06, 2008
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/flat_existing_home_sales.html

Thursday, March 06, 2008 | 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (42) | TrackBack (0)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e550a239fa8833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Pending Home Sales Down 19.6%:

Comments

NAR = National Association of Retards

Posted by: Lawrence Yun | Mar 6, 2008 10:48:12 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner