Who Is Surprised by Economic Data? (part II)
This is the second time I have asked this question in recent weeks:
Factory orders in surprise decline (CNN Money) http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/26/news/economy/durable_goods/index.htm?postversion=2008032609
Durable-Goods Orders Decline (WSJ)
Demand for expensive goods fell 1.7% in February, an unexpected decline, while a barometer of capital spending by businesses tumbled 2.6%, a second straight drop. 8:34 a.m.Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline as Machinery Plummets (Bloomberg)
Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell in February, led by the biggest slump ever in demand for machinery that indicates companies are becoming more reluctant to invest as the economy heads into a recession.Durable goods orders slip unexpectedly
Reuters
New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made manufactured goods unexpectedly fell 1.7 percent during February and a key gauge of companies' appetite for investment also shrank, according to data on Wednesday that will reinforce concern the economy has chilled.
Really, WhoTF is surprised by weak economic data -- other than clueless cheerleaders? And why do headline writers keep using that phrase . . . ?
>
Previously:
Who Are These People Surprised by Economic Data? http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/02/who-are-these-p.html
Wednesday, March 26, 2008 | 09:35 AM | Permalink
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Tracked on Mar 26, 2008 12:50:20 PM
Comments
David Malpass perhaps? LOL
Posted by: Stuart | Mar 26, 2008 9:40:02 AM
some are lazy, some are stupid, some are ethically challenged.
Posted by: hal | Mar 26, 2008 9:51:55 AM
Vizzini: "Inconceivable!"
Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
Posted by: attobuoy | Mar 26, 2008 9:56:27 AM
Dismay at this stuff is unwarranted. It has never been different.
Posted by: rw | Mar 26, 2008 9:56:56 AM
What you have is fewer and fewer reporters filling more and more lines. To survive they use lines from press releaqses, other publications, etc. There is no research because there is no time. Couple that with the Kudlow's and money honeys on cable and the BS flows unchecked. With the avg person reading less and less we are set up for individual investor disaster, as the scammers have a wide advantage in this environment.
Posted by: larster | Mar 26, 2008 9:57:26 AM
Barry I have been railing on about the same thing, as did Mish recently at his blog (Global Economic Trend Analysis)
But I think the answer is that it is the governments own projections, vs. their actual reports. They set it up like this, and then the stenographers and the AP, UPI, etc. have to use the word "unexpected" because they were basically told otherwise. Asinine? At the least. I think it is both bad journalism and another symptom of a broken system - at all levels.
Posted by: Anthony | Mar 26, 2008 10:03:45 AM
Just-in-Time Reporting.
No different from the rest of our system.
Posted by: D. | Mar 26, 2008 10:05:53 AM
Barry, you're reading my mind. I just saw this Reuters item on MSN.money: NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks opened lower on Wednesday as unexpectedly weak durable goods data reinforced concerns about a weakening economy."
I understand that news organizations have pared back their staffs greatly over the last decade as they shift to a news-as-revenue-producing-entertainment model. However, the factual information about the economy is so easily obtained from no more than 5 minutes of investigation on the internet that I can only conclude that the "journalists" who are so constantly "surprised" by the economic news don't actually bother going on the internet. They write the cheerleading drivel that their corporate bosses tell them to write, and then it's off to lunch.
Posted by: bluestatedon | Mar 26, 2008 10:07:11 AM
Brian Wesbury. His Q2 GDP forecast must be up to 5% by now...LOL
Larster, add to that authoritarian free enterprise and you've pretty much got the whole stew.
Posted by: Stuart | Mar 26, 2008 10:07:59 AM
It is time to stand behind our markets and wall street crooks & spin-docs! Forget the economic reality, general Benny is doing a fine job as the quarter comes to close.
Let us show to the world that quarter-end is around the corner and no matter what our diffrences -- bulls or bears -- everyone must show solidarity and support this market for next 3 business days! Once the fees are taken out for money mgmt firms, we go back our old ways.
I SUPPORT THE OPTIMISM and the BENNY surge.
Posted by: Nihilism | Mar 26, 2008 10:08:57 AM
"Dismay at this stuff is unwarranted. It has never been different."
That just isn't true - it is getting worse.
Posted by: Anthony | Mar 26, 2008 10:09:19 AM
I agree that the word 'surprise' is a reflection of questionable effort.
Anybody with a brain should remember that February was a pretty bad month. Credit markets were seizing. The stock market was beyond dismal. News stories were predicting bad times for all, possibly forever. Nobody in their right mind would spend big in that environment (Hint: credit collapse fanatics ... this is only a light intro to what you would see by allowing your cleansing purge.)
This is another excellent example of lazy reporter syndrome.
The proof of if this is a trend or a bottom will be what happens in March and April. I suppose nobody mentioned this anywhere.
Posted by: cinefoz | Mar 26, 2008 10:14:41 AM
"That just isn't true - it is getting worse".
The present always feel worse. The past always feels better.
Posted by: rw | Mar 26, 2008 10:17:27 AM
Personally, I like the positive housing news out today:
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks have pulled off their lows after positive new home sales data hit the wires.
February new home sales totaled 590,000, which is better than the 578,000 consensus forecast. January's initial reading of 588,000 was revised higher to 601,000.
New home sales slipped 1.8% month-over-month. Economists, on average, estimated sales would fall 1.7% month-over-month after January's downturn. January's new home sales initially reflected a 2.8% dip, but were revised higher to a 1.6% downturn.
Posted by: Mr. Obvious | Mar 26, 2008 10:18:11 AM
The recession started in 4Q2007. The sales tax revenues for all the states combined declined 2.44% for that quarter compared to 4Q2006. That is a steep decline. This is a consumer led recession. Waiting for the Census Bureau to confirm that figure. Also the NBER should declare this recession within the next 3 months. A surprise would be if they don't.
Posted by: Carmen | Mar 26, 2008 10:25:04 AM
"...clueless cheerleaders" - insert first term before "headline writers"
My work here is done...
Posted by: Uncle Jeffy | Mar 26, 2008 10:26:33 AM
Housing will appreciate at 20% or better for the foreseeable future. Buy a house now, or you'll never get in.
Don't believe me?
Check my creds.
Posted by: Lawrence Yun | Mar 26, 2008 10:44:24 AM
Hank needs to STFU......
How anyone would give him ANY credibility is beyond rationale thought..
Please Hank STFU already...
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Mar 26, 2008 10:57:34 AM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10408046/1/economic-calendar-march-24-march-28.html
Forecast was for a .8 increase, so if you do not lean toward the conspiritorial, and believe the Census Bureau, surprise would still be appropriate, not under researched.
Common sense supports obviously a different view, but the MSM is predisposed to report the "facts" as released, even the doctored ones. At this point things are slipping at a rate teetering on chaos, the Gov - MSM is in the business of crowd control.
Thanks Barry for an alternate source of information.
Posted by: Stormrunner | Mar 26, 2008 11:00:28 AM
I'm surprised at Barry's unexpected non-optimism.
Shocked, really.
Posted by: Douglas Watts | Mar 26, 2008 11:10:38 AM
I'm primarily surprised we can still afford to produce economic data.
Posted by: Blutskralle | Mar 26, 2008 11:11:30 AM
I can't complain too much about the reporting. It's "unexpected" in relation to the consenus of economists.
Perhaps the headline should read "Bonehead Economists Still Don't Get It And Continue to Underpredict the Recession."
Posted by: Gary | Mar 26, 2008 11:23:53 AM
The perfect trifecta: durable goods and new home sales were weaker than "expected" and there was a bigger draw in crude oil, gasoline and distillates. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. Let's see where the markets close.
Posted by: Pat G. | Mar 26, 2008 11:33:37 AM
Funny how the "unexpected drawdown in crude" happens to coincide with the amount of canceled contracts from last week......
Oh and ACTUAL oil inventories are still at 12 year highs.....
They continue to let the NYMEX rape and pillage under the guise of free market.
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | Mar 26, 2008 11:42:40 AM
It's not just Hank who needs to STFU.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8
Posted by: Stuart | Mar 26, 2008 11:48:01 AM
