NonFarm Payroll: -80,000
The March employment data was much worse than expected: NonFarm Payroll down 80,000, Unemployment Rate 5.1%, all prior revisions worsen than previous releases.
Let me be blunt: There is no way to spin these numbers, though that won't stop the usual syncophants and junkies from trying. Only the 21% who think the country is on the right track will deny the employment situation is weak, and that the odds now favor that we are in a recession.
This was the third month in a row of declining NFP, and the worst payroll number since March 2003. On a year-on-year basis, nonfarm payroll employment slipped to +0.4% percent in March, from +0.6% in February. The Unemployment rate worsened to 5.1%, from 4.8%
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charts courtesy of Barron's Econoday
>>
~~~
For a laugh, go back and read some of the comments on the prior months NFP posts. Some of the inane cheerleading is priceless.
Do not misunderstand me -- I want people to debate, discuss, argue. But that means using facts, being data driven, using links to other resources. We want a robust competition of ideas, not rhetoric; intelligence, not wishful thinking.
If you are merely spouting off some post-fact ideological rant, you are not welcome here. Same too for the ditto-heads repeating what some unaccountable pundit has said. The usual trolls who post garbage under pseudonyms are so embarrassingly clueless, you can only hope that they went broke before they reproduced (a Darwinian form of financial accountability).
In the next redesign, fake email addresses will not be allowed to be used for registration purposes. Real names, real people, real discussions -- Asshats not welcome.
>
Previously:
Employment
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/employment/index.html
Source:
Employment Situation Summary
BLS, April 4, 2008
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Related:
81% in Poll Say Nation Is Headed on the Wrong Track
DAVID LEONHARDT and MARJORIE CONNELLY
NYT, April 4, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/04/us/04poll.html
Friday, April 04, 2008 | 09:49 AM | Permalink
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Comments
Good post and thanks for a bit of historical context. I doubt a lot of folk are going to look at the graph and say: Things are looking up!
Minor nit: 100% - 81% = 19%
Posted by: JP | Apr 4, 2008 10:28:18 AM
My mom just called and told me I am not welcome here? I just lost my Job (a fluke, the economy is doing fine!) and now will have nothing to do if I can't post here.
Oh well...
Posted by: Asshat | Apr 4, 2008 10:28:24 AM
Some considerations. Payroll employment is now 0.4% y/y it was 0.9% at the start of the 2001 recession and 1.6% at the start of the 1990 recession.
The Household survey ? Employment is -0.1% y/y
Private employment is now down 4 months in a row and unemployment is up 0.7% from its cycle low, both of these never happen except in recessions.
6 month average of payroll is 2k per month again only happens during recession.
81% of americans think the country is on the wrong track..
Welcome to the 2008 recession, It's been official for awhile now...
Posted by: Michael Donnelly | Apr 4, 2008 10:29:50 AM
We are in recession although it won't be called until after the fact. The FED is telling us point blank that growth has stalled and we will see negative GDP the first half, but then they hold out the lollipop of a better second half. Unemplyment has a long way to go even if this were a run of the mill recession which it isn't. Anyone who wasn't an adult in the late 70s/early 80s hasn't seen bad. Fasten your seatbelts.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Apr 4, 2008 10:31:25 AM
Speaking of cheerleaders, I'm starting to wonder about the folks at ADP. ( they come out with their own employment report 2 days earlier every month )
I made a chart of the 6 month moving average of private payroll BLS and ADP, they start rapidly moving apart 4 months ago as ADP is essentially flat and BLS nosedives.
ADP is still at 75k (essentially where BLS was in mid 2007) and BLS is at -25,000. Because private jobs have dropped -300,000 in the last 4 months.
I know ADP doesn't cover finance companies much and larger companies but still...
Posted by: Michael Donnelly | Apr 4, 2008 10:37:15 AM
Looks like government employment growth helped keep decline from being even steeper.
A point that is almost never discussed in popular press/TV is that there is a natural increase every month in the number of working age Americans, often estimated as over 100,000 per month. Any employment increase less than 100,000 and we're not staying even.
Also discouraged job seekers who quit seeking drop out of "unemployment" statistics, I believe. So unemployment is increased both by new entrants and discouraged dropouts.
Posted by: OldVet | Apr 4, 2008 10:37:26 AM
This is from the AP - do you ever wonder who "Some" is/are? Are these writers (no name on the piece) just paid shills?
"WASHINGTON - Some analysts expect that today's unemployment report from the Labor Department will show fewer jobs were lost in March than in February. According to Thomson/IFR, the report should show 15,000 jobs were lost in March, which would be an improvement over the 63,000 job cut a month before."
My old name was Don but...I'm sorry, I love the new one - Thanks B!
Posted by: Asshat | Apr 4, 2008 10:39:39 AM
then to consider the impact of truth or reality on financial markets... i have the image of countless quantitative hedge funds with computer generated price chasing strategies representing the base of an inverted pyramid levitating on the apex of a single point. this point is the one person WHO THINKS. could this be BR?
Posted by: ferd mertz | Apr 4, 2008 10:39:54 AM
Them strong words, Barry. I've been digging through the thickets of economic commentaries lately, and I noticed lots of academics predicting worse conditions. Hence, what the market showed this week completely caught me off guard. Perhaps these employment numbers (and also revisions) will reveal some truth about our economy, not just market forces at work.
Great blog!
Posted by: James | Apr 4, 2008 10:40:37 AM
U-6 is very likely much closer to the true unemployment rate near 9%
Posted by: Stuart | Apr 4, 2008 10:48:11 AM
JP I had the same thought but decided to click on the link to make sure. 81% of people think that the country is headed in the right direction, but they also said that 21% think the economy is OK, which is what Barry was referring to.
I've been reading other people point out that the birth/death model is still way way off, so the numbers are far worse than this even.
Oh well by the time we get the real numbers no one will care.
Posted by: mikkel | Apr 4, 2008 10:48:13 AM
Barry,
I own a small business and I recently ran a couple of help wanted ads for marketing and clerical work. Many, many, many applications from former Real Estate industry workers-mostly support staff. In fact, with one ad, I simply could not read all of the e-mails and resumes. I run these ads on Craigslist in Los Angeles and e-mails start coming in about 15 seconds after I place the ads.
Two years ago, much less response and I lost staff to "great jobs" in Real Estate.
Yeah, things are different now down here in the real world.
Posted by: Rich Shinnick | Apr 4, 2008 10:50:41 AM
"There is no way to spin these numbers"
Perish the thought: the print is the print. However if I may be so bold, there is a silver lining, to wit, a strong taming influence on wage inflation.
(Posted using a real e-mail address)
Posted by: TempusFugit | Apr 4, 2008 10:52:24 AM
"you can only hope that they went broke before they reproduced (a Darwinian form of financial accountability)."
Like I said b4 - you crack me up.
Have you written a book yet?
If not - I have a suggested title for you:
""Laughing at wall street""
Anybody got a better title?
Posted by: wabrew | Apr 4, 2008 10:53:17 AM
Barry, the scary part is the 21% can vote. God help us! It's interesting that the top 1% also gets about 21% of GDP. This kind of income disparity hasn't existed since the Great Depression.
Posted by: SPECTRE of Deflation | Apr 4, 2008 10:56:15 AM
You nailed it Barry - you must be making a ton of money for your clients this year.
Posted by: Vermont Trader | Apr 4, 2008 10:56:26 AM
Goldilocks is dead, long live the Queen.
I've said this to my many friends who see the word "unexpected" in these news bits.. Who does NOT expect recession as house prices fall? Seriously, what trade group is paying off these useless tools?
Posted by: Unsympathetic | Apr 4, 2008 11:01:06 AM
If I recall correctly, Bush claimed to create 5 million jobs...40% real-estate related...so if real estate were just to go to a normal level and stabilize, that is...say...hmmm 2 Million jobs to be lost there alone. Worse when it overshoots.
Posted by: Dee Leverage | Apr 4, 2008 11:05:46 AM
Mr. Troll of 11:03 --
Name a stock that's worth buying. Better yet, buy and prove that you bought.
I don't think you've got the grapes.
Posted by: Unsympathetic | Apr 4, 2008 11:10:59 AM
Barry, my brother spoke to a friend in the trucking/sand industry in FL. He said he used to load about 300 trucks a day of sand and now less than 100... 'things don't look good' he said. (but to that point, we are aware).
Additionally, a second generation farmer/friend of several hundred acres has cut his head of cattle from hundreds to less than 100 because of the cost of hay. . . $145/bale currently. He said, 'we can't make any money'.
Makes one wonder how many other farmers are in the same situation and are being forced out. That won't make the cost of beef go higher will it!? (said while eyes rolling)
Posted by: Strasser | Apr 4, 2008 11:12:04 AM
Brian Wesbury on CNBS now...spinning...only slightly disappointed with the NFP...recession not guaranteed per him.
Posted by: Dee Leverage | Apr 4, 2008 11:12:11 AM
No way to spin this?
How is this:
"The NFP numbers are adjusting to seasonal factors, but remain well below the 5.5%"
Posted by: Barley | Apr 4, 2008 11:14:07 AM
> However if I may be so bold, there is a
> silver lining, to wit, a strong taming
> influence on wage inflation.
Is it reasonable to think that wage inflation would support house prices? I think so. As a matter of fact, I haven't heard an argument for how house prices don't return to historic norms related to wages, which means there's a whole lot of pain ahead, unless your main concern is being able to afford a house (if you have a job).
Posted by: pmorrisonfl | Apr 4, 2008 11:15:16 AM
Um, clueless I think we are in a secular bear market. Have you ever looked at the past secular bears? They definitely had cyclical bulls that doubled the market, but then the next cyclical bear took out a ton. They took over a decade to finally make a gain.
This is extremely important as the average person is flat out lied to about what returns to expect. If you want to play each cyclical bull/bear then fine, that's something to argue about but most people I know don't have any clue and just get killed.
Posted by: mikkel | Apr 4, 2008 11:15:19 AM
W. I. E. C.
"with all due respect" Who are you trying to kid with that line? You don't have any respect. Who is "Us"? I agree with Unsympathetic: Get a mitt and get in the game - make a call. I'm calling for Dow 11000 before Dow gets to 14000 again.
Posted by: Asshat | Apr 4, 2008 11:17:46 AM
