WSJ Economists Survey

Friday, April 11, 2008 | 09:00 AM

The latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey of economists is out (in the free section of the WSJ). Some of the survey respondents' answers might surprise you:

Inflation

As the WSJ chart shows, more often than not, economists as a group have underestimated inflation.

19% of economists said inflation poses the biggest risk to the economy.
42% said inflation poses a moderate risk
31% said it was a minor risk.
8% said it poses no risk at all.


GDP

Dismal? Hardly. In addition to their chipper view of inflation, as a group, Economists consistently overestimated GDP.

Gdp_est_wsj

Employment
A similar pollyannaish bias: Most of the group underestimated Unemployment, and at the same over-estimated NFP job creation.

Commodities
Economists are divided on whether commodity prices are at a peak:  51% said “yes,” 49% said “no.”

Recession
Here are the probability forecasts for "A Recession will occur over the next 12 months:"
2007  27.1%
2008  42.1%
2009  70.9%



>


Source:
U.S. Economy Hasn't Hit Bottom, Survey Says
PHIL IZZO
WSJ, April 10, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120776362649702195.html

Charts
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash08.html?project=EFORECAST07

Friday, April 11, 2008 | 09:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | TrackBack (0)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e551c834ab8833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference WSJ Economists Survey:

Comments

It's remarkable that 39 % of economist believe that inflation is a miner risk, or no risk at all. This shows just how ignorant many people are to the vicious effects of inflation.

Of all economic concepts, inflation is probably one of the most misunderstood. If one only look at price inflation or core price inflation, it is hard to see that current levels of CPI is a threat to the economy, especially if one look at historic high levels of CPI, as in the 70's.

To gauge the real risk of inflation one has to look at monetary inflation, without which, CPI inflation would be pretty much non-existent.

In reality, monetary inflation can be at significantly high levels at the same time consumer price inflation is low. Irrespective of CPI, monetary inflation does result in the business cycle as interest rates are held at artificially low levels.

By only looking at the obvious, or at "what is seen", ie price inflation, focus from the real problem ie. monetary infaltion is seldom accounted for.

Posted by: Daniel Halvarsson | Apr 11, 2008 9:35:59 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner