4 National GDPs as US Regions
We previously looked at Countries GDP as US States.
Today, we see GDP of the top four national economies in the world (after the US), expressed as US regions by GSP.
Via World Bank.
Thursday, May 15, 2008 | 02:30 PM | Permalink
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The important take away is, 20 years ago China's GDP was only that of Idaho, now look at it...(only slightly facetious), in another 20 years??
Posted by: Stuart | May 15, 2008 2:55:54 PM
That infographic is a bit puzzling. Japan has a larger GDP than Germany, but the parenthetical note says +$40b. It's also misleading since it appears they are using state GDP instead of state area, so while Japan's GDP is a third greater than China's, it looks smaller on the map.
Posted by: Andrew | May 15, 2008 3:05:48 PM
That is great chart porn.
Posted by: C Coop | May 15, 2008 3:11:36 PM
From the comment accompanying the original post, by secondhandconjecture:
"I should add that the parentheses below each country name is how much additional money you'd have to add to each country's GDP to make it genuinely fit the US region assigned. The amount of money that's left over after plugging these countries in is roughly equal to the GDP of Russia, the 11th richest country in the world. That in itself is pretty amazing."
Posted by: Jim Haygood | May 15, 2008 3:19:38 PM
I wonder what it would look like after reversing out the fake revenue that generated the bad debts (from all countries).
Instead of fitting neatly together, do those geographies start to overlap?
Posted by: wunsacon | May 15, 2008 3:22:28 PM
Not entirely relevant, but it reminds me of what Cramer wrote yesterday afternoon about how "The Heartland Thrives While the Coasts Wither." Insightful? I suppose if you limit the "coasts" to certain inland areas of California and the condo dominated beach areas of Florida, and you limit "heartland" to those areas within commuting distance of a multinational exporter, then he's right. Otherwise, I would have to say it's self-serving sensationalism, which is just so unexpected from him. : )
Posted by: Eric | May 15, 2008 3:27:04 PM
>> so while Japan's GDP is a third greater than China's, it looks smaller on the map
Maybe because "China" instills more fear/anger these days than "Japan" and so it makes for better copy to feature a bigger China?
I have no idea if that was the motivation for giving Japan the dense NE corridor and thus give China more space. Could be. But, maybe not. Just speculating.
Posted by: wunsacon | May 15, 2008 3:27:28 PM
Swiss cantons as countries:
http://www.avenirsuisse.ch/content/avenir-aktuell/0804-eins/mainColumnParagraphs/0/document8/A0800557_Avenir%20aktuell%201.08%208.pdf
Posted by: Kriso | May 15, 2008 3:33:59 PM
Interesting perspective/comparison. Good poop, Barry!
Posted by: BG | May 15, 2008 3:44:03 PM
Another viewpoint on China is not so rosy...per UK Telegraph:
I confess that I do not speak with authority on China, and may be wrong to doubt the miracle -- so much like the Japan hype of the late 1980s to my jaded eye.
I look to clever people who know what is going on, such as Dr Kwan Chi Hung from the Nomura Institute -- an esteemed figure in the Far East, and himself Chinese - who believes that China's long-term prospects are "horrible".
China's workforce will peak in seven years (the delayed fruit of the one-child policy) and then go into the steepest downward spiral ever seen by a large nation in peacetime. It will, and do so long before it is rich. This demographic implosion cannot be reversed quickly.
Dr Kwan says China enjoys a dreadful return on capital because credit is still allocated by a Communist banking system pursuing political aims.
This is how disasters on a truly huge scale are incubated. Competitiveness is in any case slipping. It is already cheaper to produce cars in Japan than China, he says.
Charles Dumas, global strategist at Lombard Street Research and author of a new book `China and America: A time for Reckoning', says China must soon slam on the breaks as inflation hits 8.5 per cent, or let overheating get out of control. "The Chinese will have to slow sharply, and it will start in earnest this autumn," he said.
Posted by: Steve Barry | May 15, 2008 3:46:12 PM
But Barry, are these GDP comparisons adjusted for the American Peso's valuation relative to the Euro, Yuan and Yen?
Posted by: DonKei | May 15, 2008 3:51:20 PM
Japan is the #2 economy and the Northeast is the wealthiest part of the US. If they had put it on the West coast it'd probably take up that entire half.
Posted by: CRG | May 15, 2008 3:52:11 PM
That chart gave me a start, Barry.
It reminded me of a page in a pocket atlas I have - dated about 1910 or so.
The page that came to mind was one showing the continent of Africa divided up amongst the European powers.
Steve Barry's comment on China's potential weaknesses reminds me of the work of Susan Shirk, who contends that the fragility of China is more dangerous than its strengths. She's thining more in terms of political stability and international cooperation than in terms of economics, but those are hardly unrelated
Her book: http://www.amazon.com/China-Superpower-Internal-Politics-Peaceful/dp/0195306090
Posted by: ottnott | May 15, 2008 3:54:13 PM
Ottnot...every underpinning of the new bull market...China, Housing, new debt products, will soon be history.
Posted by: Steve Barry | May 15, 2008 3:57:38 PM
"China's workforce will peak in seven years (the delayed fruit of the one-child policy) and then go into the steepest downward spiral ever seen by a large nation in peacetime. It will, and do so long before it is rich. This demographic implosion cannot be reversed quickly"
Nope. They are going to have better paid jobs. That's all.
Posted by: Erasmus | May 15, 2008 3:58:38 PM
39th out of 40 days now QQQQ could not reach its 100 day MA for volume. Unless someone proves me wrong, I believe this has to be an all-time record for feeble volume.
Posted by: Steve Barry | May 15, 2008 4:02:51 PM
If you think about the chart in terms of geography, US production per square mile of sovereign land is much, much less productive than Japan, Germany and England. However, I believe China is the size of the US, so China uses a little less than half the land to produce a quarter billion more in GDP. Interesting. We have a lot of unproductive space in the US, which is good - means more future capacity. Where is Japan going to find more land?
Posted by: Matt | May 15, 2008 4:20:44 PM
Matt:
You make the mistaken assumption, and this chart feeds on the mistaken assumption, that there is some correlation nowadays between land and production. In an information economy, this 'fact' simply isn't true.
In many ways having less space is more productive, as it puts more people in contact with one another and reduced transaction costs; think of all the business that occurs in New York simply because everyone is there.
Posted by: David Manheim | May 15, 2008 4:29:10 PM
"China's workforce will peak in seven years (the delayed fruit of the one-child policy) and then go into the steepest downward spiral ever seen by a large nation in peacetime."
That's why all of the talented Chinese emigrate.
As with Japan, many global threats seem much more dire when you are in the midst of them, as we are now, with out balance of trade issue with China. I like to think that the US COULD retain its global stature-- perhaps by achieving adult leadership in Washington in January:
"1-20-09: don't let the door hit your behind" --the Peace Penguins
Posted by: tom B | May 15, 2008 4:31:21 PM
Nice
Next time they should try to show the shrinking US GDP on the EU map, on hard currency basis, as EUR or RR Rubel..
Posted by: Tom B | May 15, 2008 4:32:44 PM
Erasmus I agree with your insight.
Steve the decreasing population in a non-capitalist country does not have the same problems as say here in America. Here we rely on housing and infrastructure builds with home accents as growth in GDP.
Other capitalist nations that supply their own needs are in the same situation. Hense my anxiety; why we here in America feel after the factory has left the country do we see GDP growth futures here?
Pop growth has its troubles here too. We are now experencing a population that with manufacturing automation has fewer places to earn a solid living. Thats automations purpose; Replace expensive humans.
A worker can be created in as little as 15 years. Then that worker needs intake for another 85 years from a decreasing pool of resources. Thats where we are now; Inflation by population drain on its needs.
My parents created a retirement system that post WWII destruction; worked for their generation best. The first segment of boomers have some cream; then?
Posted by: Greg0658 | May 15, 2008 6:28:52 PM
My gut reaction to this chart is:
"Decoupling? I think not."
AT
Posted by: Andy Tabbo | May 15, 2008 11:46:59 PM
you better compare 07 or 08 Europe Zone and US GDP
Posted by: tiff | May 16, 2008 3:06:52 AM
Tufte would be proud.
Posted by: me | May 16, 2008 11:18:46 AM
I dont' think it is misleading at all. I think everyone in the US at least knows where most of the GDP and capital is coming from within the states.
As to the other comment...in 20 years China's high net worth population will outnumber America's middle class.
- Richard
Richard Wilson
Hedge Fund Consulting Blog
p.s. I'm adding the Big Picture to my Blogroll right now, thanks for this article
Posted by: Richard Wilson | May 16, 2008 3:39:01 PM
So, when is there going to be a chart showing the U.S. as part of the biggest world economy, the E.U.? Might be good for grins and the heart infarctions of right winger bloggers.
Posted by: roger | May 16, 2008 11:35:21 PM
