Job Loss Trend Dismal
Today's chart porn will be the second to last of our Employment related posts:
Gail Dudack's Research Group was kind enough to give us permission to run this chart she created back in April of this year (its subscription only, and hence a month delayed).
She notes that "Job losses in construction, manufacturing, trade-transportation & utilities, professional & business services, financial activities and information technology are overwhelming the gains seen in education & health services, government, leisure & hospitality, mining and other services."
Even worse, 2008 measure up very poorly with any of the prior 7 years:
Comparison With Recent Years Is Less Than Encouraging For 2008
Source: Dudack Research Group, April 11, 2008
Note: the title of this post is not mine -- it came from the original version of this published at Welling@Weedon . . .
Friday, May 02, 2008 | 11:45 AM | Permalink
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Thought I was done posting for the day but couldn't resist this one...
Sen. Clinton criticizes Exxon Mobil selloff
Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) latest numbers continue to draw scrutiny. Exxon posted a 17% rise in first-quarter earnings, to $10.9 billion, or $2.03 a share, as the company benefited from the rise in energy prices.
But shares fell 3% in afternoon trading, as the numbers missed Wall Street’s expectations and investors worried about an unusual production decline.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton indicated in an afternoon statement from her presidential campaign office that she’s enraged by the implication of Thursday’s selloff - that Exxon isn’t making enough money.
“There is something seriously wrong with our economy when Exxon’s record $11 billion in quarterly profits are seen as a disappointment by Wall Street,” Clinton said. She went on to use the company’s latest gains to reiterate her call for a gas tax holiday — a proposal has been criticized by economists who say it won’t result in lower prices for consumers. “I believe we should impose a windfall profits tax on big oil companies and use that money to suspend the gas tax and give families relief at the pump,” Clinton said.
from:
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/05/01/sen-clinton-criticizes-exxon-selloff/
Posted by: Vermont Trader | May 2, 2008 12:01:35 PM
I agree with you that the economy is on a slide right now, one I (& you) think will extend from some time.
BUT this graph distorts the current job situation, specifically by beginning over with each year. Put in a little context, 2006 was a great year for job growth, 2007 was one of stagnation (OK, a small gain), and 2008 looks like one of contraction.
It's hard to say whether the current job contraction will follow the 2001 experience. It's also not clear whether the 2001 contraction followed major job expansion in the 1990s and 2000. And, it's also obvious that the 2001 contraction was not "the end of the world" given the subsequent rebound noted in the chart.
All in all, the graph distorts the current situation--although I agree that jobs & the economy are contracting.
Posted by: Lilguy | May 2, 2008 12:15:27 PM
As Dick Cheyney might say, "So?"
We've had a huge credit contraction, consumers are tightening, we have some inflation is staples and...the labor market is just weak? And some sectors are weaker than others?
So?
When we see folks heading to cardboard boxes under bridges, then I will get worried.
Meanwhile, as the post above shows, we might have Hilary Clinton trying to manage oil prices and the value of Exxon stock from the confines of the Oval Office.
THAT would get me heading for a cardboard box!
Posted by: Karl K | May 2, 2008 12:30:54 PM
Is this the same Clinton that made a killing in cattle futures when her hubby was Gov. Of Ar..kansas?
She sure knows markets!
Posted by: Ross | May 2, 2008 12:40:33 PM
Stocks arent taking the employment number's very well. I guess they agree that the numbers are dismal.
Banker
Posted by: Banker | May 2, 2008 12:45:34 PM
Doesn't the fact that the treasury yield curve has disinverted and returned to a normal curve mean that we are heading away from recession, or are in the midst of it, but better conditions are on the way (soon, I hope?)
Posted by: Valdan | May 2, 2008 12:50:38 PM
Hillary either (a) doesn't know stock prices can decrease in spite of an increase in profits for *any* company or (b) she's misreading the significance of the event as an opportunity to support her policy. Is there a (c)?
If she wins the nomination, I'm writing in myself.
Posted by: wunsacon | May 2, 2008 1:32:39 PM
I'd be interested in seeing this chart excluding public sector employment for each year.
I think that would address earlier comments asking "so what?". Secret to US success has been incredible private job creation and I suspect that if you look at just private jobs, the last 8 year would look worse all around.
I've also seen research that suggests that the marginal improvement we've seen in average unemployment rates can be accounted for almost entirely by the increase in long-term disability rolls.
This might help explain other research which shows a significant decline in upward economic mobility in the US.
You may fear cardboard boxes. I fear the death of the American Dream.
Posted by: ieyasu | May 2, 2008 1:48:34 PM
When we see folks heading to cardboard boxes under bridges, then I will get worried.
start worrying:
BBC NEWS | Americas | Tent city highlights US homes crisis
Posted by: a guy called john | May 2, 2008 3:27:06 PM
a guy called john wrote:
start worrying:
BBC NEWS | Americas | Tent city highlights US homes crisis
Omigod...the tent city has grown from "a couple of dozen people" to....
THREE HUNDRED!! In a nation of 300 million!!
Yes, the apocalypse has arrived. Especially since the BBC is on top of it. THERE's an authority.
Yes, friends, it's all over.
Head to the basement. Caress those krueggerands. Time to dig into those canned goods.
Posted by: Karl K | May 3, 2008 12:05:26 AM
You are right about NFP - everything is on a downward trend , even in the long run.
http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2008/05/modeling-labor-force-participation-in.html
However, it does no affect real economic growth much.
Posted by: kio | May 3, 2008 8:17:12 AM
