Kudlow & Co. Appearance (5/14/08)
Another appearance on Kudlow & Co. tonite, from 7:00 to 7:30pm (ish).
Also on tonite: David Malpass, Bear Stearns chief economist, Jimmy Pethokoukis, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report, Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets, Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management, and Don Luskin, chief investment officer, Trend Macro.
Note that Jimmy Pethokoukis and I have a bet as to whether or not there is a recession or not.
UPDATE: May 14, 2008 11:47pm
Considering it was 4 on 1, I thought I held up pretty well.
Click for video
In comments, several people were critical of the appearance. While I appreciate the perspective, its very difficult to explain what live TV is like (or in this case, Live to tape).
You have 15 seconds to make a point. What you really need is 15 minutes to discuss any of these items in appropriate detail. Instead, its a series of feints and jabs, parries and thrusts. My goal is to intelligently discuss these issues, focus on reality, while presenting my firm in the best possible light.
For those of you who have never done TV, its a matter of choosing your battles. And, its much harder than it looks.
Almost every time I am on, I have a "Terminator moment" -- 4 good answers pop into the frontal cortex (POSSIBLE RESPONSE: YES/NO; OR WHAT?; GO AWAY; PLEASE COME BACK LATER; FUCK YOU, ASSHOLE),
This being tv, I am forced to go with the economic equivalent of "F*ckYou a**hole." The pithy response that makes the point, not the longer soap box answer I would rather make.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008 | 05:30 PM | Permalink
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Comments
I was out all day...but saw that, as predicted, as soon as QQQQ volume picked up in any way, down she went. It printed a nasty shooting star candle. Volume, though shy of the 100 day MA for the 38th out of 39 days of this new bull market, picked up about 70% over the last few days. 10 day total put/call is 89, the range where bad things happen for longs...it's been lower only once in the last year.
Posted by: Steve Barry | May 14, 2008 5:41:07 PM
You & Malpass? At the same time?
That should be interesting - maybe I'll watch.
Heard you on Bloomberg this a.m.
Posted by: mo | May 14, 2008 5:56:19 PM
COMPLETELY off topic, but my work started blocking http://www.ritholtz.com. WTF?
Posted by: Jonathan | May 14, 2008 6:33:48 PM
I can see from Barry's time on Kudlow that no one sees anything bad coming.
That's good for bears, bad for bulls.
Posted by: John Borchers | May 14, 2008 7:10:51 PM
And tell Kudlow that most people in their retirement funds CAN'T exclude the financials!
30% of S&P is the financials. That's 1/3 bad against 2/3 good. But that bad 1/3 wipes out all good!
Posted by: John Borchers | May 14, 2008 7:13:56 PM
I'll be Rev Joykill for ya
60Bil down to 55Bil trade deficit
BooYa; what a positive
then it comes out the whole flood just dropped both sides; BooYa
YOU CAN'T BOOYA till its ZERO TRADE DEFICIT; thats positive; then we can start on reducing the ACCUMULATIVE #######'s
America is Rome in the nuclear age ... with a nuclear half life ... empires survive; just maybe not yours
Posted by: Greg0658 | May 14, 2008 7:22:59 PM
What did Luskin say...when Barry's Fusion IQ gets to 100, short it? That was a nasty comment. Barry should rip him a new one.
Posted by: Steve Barry | May 14, 2008 7:23:56 PM
Barry,
Geez, talk about stacking the guests against you.
Question: You said occasionally you short, but i didnt get the sense that you short often or a lot of time. Why?
Given the recent activity by the government, fed etc i have my own feelings but i was curious as to why you dont seem to short all that often....
Posted by: William | May 14, 2008 7:24:17 PM
Just saw you on Kudlow. Welcome to the club of whores. Barry, you can't have your cake and eat it too! You let LK smack you down. Your vision is too valuable not to swing out and risk your relationship with LK.
Tell it like it is (as you always do) on CNBC or tell them to take a hike.
Do you "NEED" them?
NO!
Your vision is superior to LK and CNBC.
Go for it!
Cheers,
Peter
Posted by: PeterR | May 14, 2008 7:25:14 PM
Some guys are really funny.
you notice all the ones he is angry at? Anyone who is currently cautious or bearish. Maybe we dont want to read your posts? Ever thought of that? Open up your own blog or website. Cant be that difficult for you since you are a computer genious.
Now, back to topic, next to Luskin? thats painful
Posted by: B.B. | May 14, 2008 7:28:47 PM
wanna nother fact Monte!
Our county courthouse needs a new elevator. This morning announced our property taxes are going up just to keep up with all kinds of stuff. Whoda guessed.
Now for the rest of the story. The county CD's are dropping from 4.49% interest to 3.2 and 2.75%.
That is your fault out there in Wall Street LaLaLand. We will take you down with us. In a bayou accent GUARANTEED.
Posted by: Greg0658 | May 14, 2008 7:43:27 PM
OMG - I never watch Kudlow, have read the comments on here about him. But I tuned in tonight.
The "reality" that those guys see in the #s is so incredibly removed from what is going on in the real world right now. My mind is just boggled.
If this mentality is why stocks are going up in the face of bad news then I am going to have to start playing around with some shorts again. It is ugly out there. In the REAL world.
Posted by: H Salmon | May 14, 2008 7:46:25 PM
Malpass did a lunch at Bear's HQ about two months before Bear blew chunks. His thesis then was that everything was fine. In fact, someone asked him about the TED spread, why had it spiked and remained elevated if everything was fine. His answer almost made me fall outta my seat. He said the TED spread had blown out because of the timing mismatch between London and New York.
Posted by: Vega | May 14, 2008 7:56:07 PM
I want to issue a 'Code Red' on Don Luskin. He's got to be the biggest asshole on Kudlow I've seen by far.
Posted by: John Borchers | May 14, 2008 8:04:49 PM
I just found this link for the first time.
http://archives.cnn.com/2001/BUSINESS/08/02/openfund/
I didn't realize Mr. Luskin already had broke one company before.
So when the market's get tough Don goes bankrupt because he's always all in. That makes sense the way he talks.
If I would have been Barry I would have reminded Mr Luskin of his history but that wouldn't be good for my business either, still would be funny though.
Posted by: John Borchers | May 14, 2008 8:13:04 PM
Regarding the bet with Jimmy P. about whether we're in recession. Today's CPI report illustrates the problem -- you could be right in real life, but lose the bet because of fudged statistics.
If the GDP deflator weren't being crudely suppressed in the same way as the CPI is, we would ALREADY have had a negative growth quarter, with another one on the way.
The same issue would have arisen with betting on a drop in Soviet grain production. You might have looked out your window and seen the blasted wheat stubble on the failing collective farms. You might have counted the queue of ships in port, waiting to discharge their mountains of imported grain. But according to official statistics, grain production carried on rising in line with the five-year plan. It had to -- otherwise, heads would roll. After the Soviet Union went down, the CIA realized that Soviet GDP had been about half of what U.S. analysts had estimated.
Never bet against the USSA, comrade. The Shoppers' Paradise has plenty more aces up its official sleeve. Put me in charge of the BLS, and I care not about the bread lines!
Posted by: JIm Haygood | May 14, 2008 8:24:09 PM
God Barry!!! I am a huge fan and have been for years but you infuriate me sometimes when you are on that show and never more so than tonight.
You have all the information & data on your side and yet you let them attack you as if you are the one who is out of touch.
Fed measures not seen since the GD, ridiculously doctored gov't stats, a stock market still below the high 7 years ago and the dollar 35% lower, all time record foreclosures, every big bank needing to raise capital and moving larger and larger portions of their balance sheet to level 3, ETC ETC ETC!!!
Why don't you defend yourself or at least counter their ridiculous statements.
Ugh!!! You really should never come off looking as bad as you did tonight...you have all the facts..."release Hell" Barry!
Posted by: Sammy20 | May 14, 2008 8:44:43 PM
Sammy,
You are right he has all the facts. But if you had up his time he gets to speak, it can not be more than 2 minutes. Really hard to respond, when you are forced into sound bites. I like the show and watch it reguarly, but just dont understand why they dont have on only 2 guys and give them some real time. And even though i dont mind Kudlow, he is ridiculous when it comes to letting panalists with opposing views getting anymore time than 20 seconds to respond.
Come on Kud, lay off the 4 minutes lead in's and give these people time to talk facts.
Posted by: B.B. | May 14, 2008 9:16:06 PM
I have to agree that BR was weak against Kudlow tonight. When you get a platform like LK, use it. And put that prick LK in his place.
Posted by: Joshua | May 14, 2008 9:32:36 PM
Barry, You did well considering it felt like you were roped into coming onto the show and getting ambushed. Must of felt like a sucker punch.
Don Luskin is so far from a gentleman I am really not sure how CNBC and Kudlow continue to allow Luskin and Bowyer to make personal attacks and act in the narcissitic ego driven manner they do.
I do see how Kudlow does arrive at the thinking that you say one thing on his air and then soften and become bullish on his show. I do think this is true. I think you need to be who you want to be and not someone in the middle. Your blog leans pretty bearish, your posts do and your followers are for the most part distrusting of the gov't and negative on equities (include me). On Kudlow you are too squishy..
Posted by: johnnyb | May 14, 2008 9:55:32 PM
-tongue somewhat in cheek-
Without dumb permabull money, how would smart money make money?
Zero...sum...game.
Posted by: CDizzle | May 14, 2008 9:56:01 PM
LarryKudlow
speechwriter
BSC strategist
party boy
pundit.
Posted by: Vermont Trader | May 14, 2008 9:59:44 PM
Give Barry a break, LK is paid to spew forth his propaganda. LK is not interested in facts or a good debate, just spin and BS.
The show is totally fixed for this reason.
Now drink the koolaid and be a good boy.
Posted by: Jim | May 14, 2008 9:59:47 PM
It was obviously a set-up. They were laying for Barry and they took him to the woodshed. Barry may have been slightly embarrassed or ashamed, and he was probably surprised by the directness of the attacks, so he was probably reluctant to strike back, perhaps feeling he had to make amends to them in some fashion.
Further, IMO, this is the worst time to be attacked for being bearish. Let’s face it, most of what they said was true, transports going through the roof, the market moving steadily higher for nearly eight weeks since Bear day, Fed rate cuts, TAF loans, fiscal stimulus going out the door, and credit spreads, etc., HAVE improved. There ARE a lot of indicators supporting the bull case right now, and pulling out the old saws about foreclosures, and “phony” data, etc, isn’t going to cut the mustard with any bulls in the face of these indicators, that’s old news now. Without some data on worsening conditions or validation in the markets bears are just lone wolves howling at the moon at the moment.
Barry took his thumpin’ like a man, and lives to fight another day. And the winner of their debate has yet to be determined…
Posted by: KJ Foehr | May 14, 2008 10:15:34 PM
Funny for all their bullishness, I am long coal, euro small emerging co's, alt energy, companies that make mining equipment, LUK,
and Russia. Not exactly an everything is coming up roses in the USA approach. Rather defensive. The only thing that is an anomaly is that the IBD mutual fund index crossed up the 200 day moving average. This is bullish. But I wish I could tell you for how long. I don't have a lot of faith in a long term bull rather at most a multi month rally. The most likely scenario is a hard break in the price of oil triggering a period of euphoric buying until it stops going down, then the reality of real costs / and a hindered economy hits again.
.
Posted by: alexd | May 14, 2008 10:22:48 PM
