Lowest NYSE Volume of the Year
Peter Boockvar notes:
Today's consolidated volume for NYSE names was a low for the year to date.
Helene Meisler notes:
It's a bear market -- and these low volume rallies are typical of short covering. (unless you believe all those dark pools are swallowing all the volume!).
As long as there are shorts in the market we will get rallies; Once the shorts cover we get a decline like last week.
Doug Kass goes even further:
I am starting to scale into shorts now.
My favorite? PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ).
My catalysts? The VIX and volume.
That's our surprising data point of the day.
Monday, May 12, 2008 | 05:01 PM | Permalink
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A lot of index charts look like that. And the Bubblevision fools are peeing in their pants about the close tonight.
Posted by: Innocent Bystander | May 12, 2008 5:27:47 PM
check out the short interest on the SPY (SPY Equity SI ). Its about triple what it was at the start of the year!
Posted by: Mikael | May 12, 2008 5:39:39 PM
and the volume continues to not matter as we get pushed up on yet more wonderful news.
BR-
your industry needs to get it's collective head out of it's ass and call this out for what it is.....MASSIVE FRAUD.
But I see how that doesn't get readers or make any money. I guess hemming and hawing about it makes yourself feel better about it.
Call these pricks out before they make it worse than can ever be recovered. We are talking about having the market hijacked on a DAILY basis with these goddamn futures buying on really crappy news......the free market left the building last year in case you had not noticed.
All you can say is "it might be speculation"
Fuck us all if that is the prevailing attitude amongst you and your peers. You have a pulpit.....USE IT TO ADVANCE THE COMMON GOOD FOR ALL not just make $$$$$$$
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | May 12, 2008 5:42:30 PM
The market's up 130 because, according to MSN.money, "oil prices...fell back and alleviated some of investors' concerns about accelerating inflation."
So oil falls to "only" $124 per barrel, and investors are supposedly regarding that as a sign that inflation is moderating? I'd like a truckload of whatever they're smoking, please.
Posted by: bluestatedon | May 12, 2008 5:46:58 PM
Had to be a big up day if MS spouted off the f bomb again....
Posted by: Jdamon | May 12, 2008 5:47:12 PM
Helene Meisler: “As long as there are shorts in the market we will get rallies; once the shorts cover we get a decline like last week.”
Why when we had a decline last week on low volume nobody was making comments like: “As long as there are shorts in the market we will get selloffs; once the shorts short we get an increase like this week.”
Why when there is a rally on low volume, the bears are quick to proclaim that it is a “short covering rally”, but when there is a selloff on low volume like last week, nobody says it was because short sellers were shorting on low volume?
Why there are no “short shorting selloffs” but there are “short covering rally”? Anybody?
P.S. Barry, I did not see you making posts about “short shorting selloffs” last week but I see you posting about “short covering rally” this week? Why?
~~~
BR: Today wasn't just a low volume day, it was THE LOWEST VOLUME DAY OF THE YEAR.
Any data point which is either unusual or extreme is, IMO, worth considering. Hence, the lightest volume day of the year has significance . . .
Posted by: Grandma | May 12, 2008 5:54:29 PM
this is not about being long or short jdamon, it's about stopping this practice of inflate our way out of poor decisions with even poorer ones. But it's too bad you can't see it for that.....make a few bucks and it's ok right??
hope you made them in something other than dollars.
but let's just think that there was not some massive coordination with Jamie's comments today. Only a blind man can't see what happened today......
This system is broken and needs to be fixed. The people in this business are too busy counting cash to give a shit about the real affects of poor monetary policy for the sake of one election. We ALL will be paying for this for a very long time.
If it takes some profanity from me to get you to see it then fine...if not then good luck with the ignorance crowd.
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | May 12, 2008 6:00:19 PM
grandma-
if you think today was short covering then C has some "assets" they'd like to talk to you about....
Short covering does not happen like today, never has......never will. I have been the victim of short covering and had many benefits from it.......this was not shorts covering.
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | May 12, 2008 6:04:26 PM
I'm with MS here. BR, you have a great record. From which, you could take a page from Diogenes and carry your Lamp on Wall St.
~~~
BR: Hey, it ain't me that's adulterating the coinage . . .
Posted by: Mark E Hoffer | May 12, 2008 6:10:57 PM
Although there are some people pretty angry at today's gain (you know who you are), I am not sure that it is a bad thing when the market gains points, whether the volume bringing it up is low OR high. Low volume could even me that perhaps the market is on the verge of stabalizing.
High volatility is usually a sign of a struggling market. Bad news of any kind can cause the market to make triple-digit gains, only to make a triple-digit fall right back down the mountain if one company gives a report someone doesn't like.
I am not too concerned about low volumes, I take it as more long-term investing, and less "take your profits and run to cash" actions.
Where this could be very bad is if their investments are in cash now and they are just sitting on it. Then Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, says I.
Posted by: Jonathan | May 12, 2008 6:15:53 PM
Well my sense was to go short at around DOW 13,000 because that just seemed consistent with the kind of bear market rallies we've seen in the past.
So I'm more amused than anything by the upward move today.
But I do agree with more disgruntled posters that there's a growing resentment toward Wall Street that is entirely justifiable and may result in the kind of extreme backlash that will make traders an endangered species.
I think Wall Street needs to look into cleaning up it's own act or we're just not going to have a Wall Street anymore.
IMO driving up oil prices borders on suicide. If we get populist sentiment targeting it's anger at professional speculators the game could be over for at least a generation.
This is probably the only reason I keep my day job at this point.
Posted by: super-anon | May 12, 2008 6:16:23 PM
Barry,
Art Cashin makes a similar point:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=734391751
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=732106020
Thanks,
-Sajal
Posted by: Sajal | May 12, 2008 6:18:35 PM
Michael Schumacher,
Thank you for responding Michael. You are smart... but Helene Meisler (and maybe Barry) thinks it was secondary to shorts covering.
I know there are studies showing that low volume does not matter (but Wall Street continues obsessing about it).
Michael, could you please pull out one of these studies and post it here for Helene Meisler and Barry to read it. (I am using a BlackBerry and cannot do it right now)
Thank you!
Posted by: Grandma | May 12, 2008 6:19:00 PM
barton biggs on cnbc today: "the pain trade is for the market to go higher than people expect - back towards the old highs."
Posted by: Jesse Felder | May 12, 2008 6:31:46 PM
The market's up 130 because, according to MSN.money, "oil prices...fell back and alleviated some of investors' concerns about accelerating inflation."
So oil falls to "only" $124 per barrel, and investors are supposedly regarding that as a sign that inflation is moderating? I'd like a truckload of whatever they're smoking, please.
It's really amusing watching them find some explanation every day.
A couple of weeks ago rising oil prices were good for stocks. "Oil, stocks rally as collapsing economic indicators fuel optimism".
Again, IMO it's just getting too out of hand. To unethical.
Posted by: super-anon | May 12, 2008 6:38:19 PM
TWM Russell 2000 Ultrashort was a gift from the gods at the close today. Good luck all.
Posted by: Eric | May 12, 2008 6:53:44 PM
I don't buy the "short covering" as the main driver, but as a side effect of the the "longs stretching it". Why? So the next leg down doesn't stray too far from recent averages.
Too much rationalizing? Maybe, but that micromanagement has been the official game with banks, retail and most everything else. It fells like the indexes are held in place by struts...
On other news, Interpol will release some data on Colombia and Venezuela this Thursday. It could affect the US oil imports...
Posted by: mhm | May 12, 2008 7:07:18 PM
I stopped listening to Yahoo, CNBC or any other financial news media on why markets went up or down...I wish I learned that long ago, but that's why I keep on invested in the market. Expensive tuition but as long as I am learning I am fine with it.
First they say "markets are rising because dollar is falling", then they turn and say "markets are rising before dollar is rising".
Fact of the matter is they don't know sh.t, they report whatever obvious correlation exists for the day as a causality relationship.
Is it pissing me off that many undeserving companies' stocks keep finding buyers at higher prices? Sure it does because I am loaded in my short ETFs and put positions up to my neck. Do I still get a good night sleep? Suprisingly, I do. Everyday I check the markets couple of times from work and go "huh, so today is not the day either" and continue doing what I do.
As I said before this market is best described as being under the spell of Stockholm Syndrome...They are prisoned in soul to their kidnappers, and it doesn't matter if you or I can see the reality with so much clarity. Until the day they get to accept it, we sit and wait.
One of these days...one of these days...
Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | May 12, 2008 7:31:56 PM
"once the shorts cover we get a decline like last week.”
Total BS......there was no buying hand over fist on the futures markets last week to prop it up. You know they are not as dumb as people think. They have to allow some slippage otherwise it becomes obvious to the very people they are fooling.
But not fooling a select few who understand how short covering works.......indexes do not stay at the levels they were at for an extended period if it were really just shorts covering. Calculated Risk poster "AC" likens it to a shotgun blast scattering nervous cattle( I agree ) however it does not take into account the many unscrupulous actions that occur when this "blast" is timed along with it. Like Jamie Daimon's crap today....totally coordinated and then the lemmings jump on board....can't say that I blame them however the short-sightedness of this is just beyond reproach.
It needs to stop and soon.....
Ciao
MS
Posted by: michael schumacher | May 12, 2008 7:49:12 PM
“I don’t know whether I make myself plain, but I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.” -Livermore
"There is only one side to the stock market;....not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side." -Livermore
Relax people.
If US stocks are pissing you off so much quit it already and go find another market. There's only like... 50,000 of them, I'm sure you find one that is more acclimated to your world-view.
Why do you rail against the stupidity of the masses in driving the market up but don't realize your own stupidity in not following them?
Besides, it's always possible the US market just tracks sideways for a decade. Not every day has to be a crisis.
Last, but not least, remember that as long as the market tracks sideways in a time of high inflation it is still a "crisis"--it's not the Fed's job to prop up the market, just to keep it from falling faster than they can print money.
Posted by: Patrick | May 12, 2008 8:48:59 PM
Schumacher,
The "proof by bold assertion" is getting old. And as Kunstler says, I'm allergic to conspiracy theories.
I'd love to believe you. But that would require you putting together a detailed case with supporting evidence, explanation of the mechanics of the fraud, the perpetrators, etc. - something more than "the market is up because they are screwing us".
Shouting profanities doesn't convince anyone that the market is fixed. Quite the contrary.
Posted by: E | May 12, 2008 9:03:28 PM
Ladies and gentlemen. Has anyone noticed that it's the beginning of Options Expiration week? Have you noticed how often the market tends to go up that week following a decline the preceding week? Might it have something to do with Wall Street grinding the premium out of May Puts they have written (naked, of course)?
This is nothing new; this has been going on for at least 18 years that I've been tracking it.
TomD
Posted by: Tom Durff | May 12, 2008 9:30:16 PM
And then again it could be supply and demand. Perhaps foreign investors are buying into our blue chips now that the dollar has stabilized and USA stocks look cheap.
Posted by: bsneath | May 12, 2008 9:39:55 PM
>Call these pricks out before they make it worse than can ever be recovered. We are talking about having the market hijacked on a DAILY basis with these goddamn futures buying on really crappy news......the free market left the building last year in case you had not noticed.
MS, if you truly believe that there is a nefarious force manipulating the market in a mode that you contend is, honestly, predictable... then why don't you play the market that way instead of insisting that it should follow some rationale that matches the one inside your head?
I personally think the large investors are just acting four steps ahead of the individual investor instead of the previous three, which renders it all inscrutable. But I'm just a little old mutual fund investor...
Posted by: Darkness | May 12, 2008 10:00:15 PM
BR,
Far from 'adultering the coinage', you, if anyone, are providing a currency of value.
The Federal Reserve should be so obsequious..http://www.thefreedictionary.com/obsequious The Mint, as poorly as they do it, is doing Yeomen's..http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Yeomen work, in endeavoring to provide any manner of metallic token in reasonable exchange for the Mountains of U$D demands they have hypothecated.
Posted by: Mark E Hoffer | May 12, 2008 10:17:52 PM
