Existing Homes Sales Fall; NAR seeks a PhD in Absurdism

Friday, May 23, 2008 | 10:19 AM

>
"Existing-home sales slowed in April, partly because restrictive lending practices hampered home buyers. At the same time, more areas are showing gains, and a reversal in mortgage policy means the market is better positioned for a turnaround." (emphasis added)

-NAR, May 23, 2008

>

Um, no.

Home sales fell for the follwoing simple and obvious reasons: 1) Prices are still too high; 2) a huge amount of supply is out there, and 3) there is a reasonable expectation on the part of buyers that prices will fall lower still.

Regardless of the data or what their own agents say, the folks at the NAR cannot help but shill for their industry -- even when it has become totally counter-productive.  They are apparently quite happy with being known as the Worst. Forecasters. Ever.

How else can you explain their shameless twisting of their own data? Don't these damn fools realize that they have simply lost all credibility? I have heard more than a few Real Estate agents complain that sellers have unrealistic expectations of prices, due in large part to the ongoing and ridiculous bottom calls and turnaround forecast form the NAR.

Perhaps the absurdist commentary that accompanies each monthly release means someone at the NAR is trying for a doctorate in Absurdism, and these monthly releases are their doctoral thesis. Nothing else (short  of blunt head trauma) explains the ridiculous monthly spin.

Rant over.

Let's go to the actual data:

• Purchases declined 1% percent from March to an annualized rate of 4.89 million.
• Median prices fell to $202,300 from $219,900 in April 2007, about am ~8% drop from April 2007 (2nd-biggest historical decline), but was up 1% sequentially.
• Sales were down 18% from April 2007
• Inventory of existing homes jumped to 4.55 million, up from 4.12 million in March.
• Months supply for single family homes rose to 10.7 from 9.6, the highest since July 1985
• 11.2 months' supply at current sales pace, up 10% from 10 months at the end of March (25 yr avg is 6.9 months)
• Months supply in condos/co-ops rose to 14.2 months from 12.8.

Bottom line: Rising inventory levels, ongoing price drops, falling unit sales means the bottom is nowhere in sight for the housing sector.


>


Previously:
NAR and Housing Forecasts (June 2007)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/06/nar_and_housing.html

Recent NAR Bottom/Turnaround calls (January 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/a-history-of-ho.html

Source:
Existing-Home Sales Ease Due to Mortgage Restrictions; Some Markets Rising
NAR, May 23, 2008
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2008/ehs_april08_ease

Friday, May 23, 2008 | 10:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | TrackBack (1)
de.li.cious add to de.li.cious | digg digg this! | technorati add to technorati | email email this post

bn-image

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d8341c52a953ef00e55278231d8833

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Existing Homes Sales Fall; NAR seeks a PhD in Absurdism:

» Inventory Reduction from Newshoggers.com
By Fester The first monthly report from the spring home selling season is out and it is ugly. Sales are slipping, prices are slipping and inventory is accumulating. I find it hard to look at the current environment and be [Read More]

Tracked on May 23, 2008 1:33:37 PM

Comments

Oh, I wouldn't say the bottom is nowhere in sight; after all 2013 isn't that far away...

Posted by: Pool Shark | May 23, 2008 11:03:45 AM

The comments to this entry are closed.



Recent Posts

December 2008
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 31      

Archives

Complete Archives List

Blogroll

Blogroll

Category Cloud

On the Nightstand

On the Nightstand

 Subscribe in a reader

Get The Big Picture!
Enter your email address:


Read our privacy policy

Essays & Effluvia

The Apprenticed Investor

Apprenticed Investor

About Me

About Me
email me

Favorite Posts

Tools and Feeds

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Add to Google Reader or Homepage

Subscribe to The Big Picture

Powered by FeedBurner

Add to Technorati Favorites

FeedBurner


My Wishlist

Worth Perusing

Worth Perusing

mp3s Spinning

MP3s Spinning

My Photo

Disclaimer

Disclaimer

Odds & Ends

Site by Moxie Design Studios™

FeedBurner