Trouble in the Hamptons?
Hope you had a relaxing 3 day weekend. Mine was filled with disturbing signs of economic malaise. (How about yours?) Granted, these are all anecdotal, and possibly explainable by other factors, but -- you be the judge:
We headed out east Saturday with very little traffic considering this was a long holiday weekend. Got last minute dinner reservations Saturday night at one of our favorite restaurants, no problems. At 8 pm, there was no wait -- indeed, there were 3 or 4 empty tables after we were seated. Last year, there would have been a 20-30 minute line at that hour on Memorial day weekend.
On the way to the beach, I count 14 homes for sale -- same amount as last year. A lot of For Rent signs out also.
On Sunday, Ponquogue beach was only partly filled -- no need for the overflow parking lot. At 2:30pm, there was still 3 rows of spots left. It was a gorgeous, sunny day, but only low 70s -- so perhaps we can blame the weather. Monday was even sparser.
We go to dinner at one of our favorite lobster restaurants -- on the early side, so as to not get home too late. We finished after 7 -- the place was still empty.
On the way home, there was some traffic -- so we take a favorite back road. Its a not very secret route that on holidays is usually jammed. We fly home with hardly any traffic slowing us down.
I speak to my brother, ask about his weekend -- he comments (unsolicited) that he was surprised at how light the traffic was. I guess the "Staycation" phenomenon is real.
~~~
What a strange holiday weekend -- how was yours?
>
UPDATE II: May 27, 2008 4:57pm
WSJ's Real Time Economics sees the same thing, calling the Hamptons ‘Magnificently Quiet’
>
UPDATE: May 27, 2008 8:57am
The consensus on the train in was that West Hampton (considered déclassé) and Hampton Bays (considered working class) are feeling the hit much more than East Hampton (jammed) And Amagansett.
Not surprising that the top tier is somewhat insulated from the worst of it.
The rich are different -- they have more money, and spend it more freely . . .
Monday, May 26, 2008 | 09:15 PM | Permalink
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no doubt, br. just posted to the gas tax posting, but we drove from chicago to sw michigan and saw no traffic there or back. none. no back ups, no slow downs, nothing.
the three day holiday, three couples and misc singles talking about how f'n expensive everything is. good times, but man it didn't seem to bode well...
Posted by: a guy called john | May 26, 2008 10:01:08 PM
I-5 between Long Beach and San Diego was MT! this afternoon, both directions. Unusual, been this way for a month on Sunday afternoons.
Posted by: sport | May 26, 2008 10:07:56 PM
I think your analysis is right. Business as usual seems to have slowed markedly (Pacific NW). I've yet to meet anyone who isn't having a hard time.
Posted by: Portland Refugee | May 26, 2008 10:11:28 PM
Low Key Weekend,
Driving around town (Thousand Oaks) with my 3 year old to buy some fish for her aquarium-she remarked on the light traffic and I remarked on all the for lease signs in all the commercial properties-especially the small developments that are just finishing up. Build it and they will come? Not so much in 2008. You CAN see what is happening if you just look around.
Posted by: Rich Shinnick | May 26, 2008 10:13:01 PM
Here in La Jolla, it has been cool too. But the beach was like a neutron bomb had exploded and left the buildings intact but all the people were gone. Downtown La Jolla was also empty. The grocery clerk said that it was the slowest Memorial Day in 17 years.
Posted by: even in La Jolla | May 26, 2008 10:17:03 PM
You guys should have tried the ride from NJ into NY via Staten Island. Hell. Even at 11pm Sunday night. I don't think NYers care about the high Gas prices.
Posted by: Garret | May 26, 2008 10:22:42 PM
BR- couldn't agree more with your east-bound traffic assessment (we left NYC friday night and made unreal time to Southampton). ..HOWEVER, coming back today- specifically 27W, to exit 62 (LIE) esp was the WORST I'd ever seen. And this was at 3pm..
Posted by: Convexity | May 26, 2008 10:32:23 PM
If you would simply use the holiday time to read the BLS reports instead of trusting your own lying anecdotal eyes, you would know there is no small business slowdown as proven by the jobs created by the birth/death model.
Obviously, businesses would not be doing all this hiring unless we were guaranteed a third quarter rebound and prosperity was right around the corner.
Back up the trucks and load up, because it appears equities have reached a permanent high plateau.
"It's not a recession. It's an economic slowdown." - George W. Bush
Posted by: Winston Munn | May 26, 2008 10:41:54 PM
From Central (Lynchburg) VA...
Our local paper ran an article recently about how the city is experiencing a 10% reduction in sales tax collections.
Also, a local high-end house developer is now in trustee foreclosure and his latest development of 29 lots and 3 houses are being auctioned off:
http://www.trfauctions.com/ua_details.php?id=325
Development here has exploded over the past 2-3 years and now appears to be imploding as this and other unfinished homes and whole developments start to be auctioned off.
Another major development community of many homes, townhouses and business is starting to look like a ghost town. It was THE hottest place to buy 2-3 yrs ago. Late last year I heard that 60% of the business (the ones left) were late on the rent.
Posted by: Alexi | May 26, 2008 10:43:22 PM
Not a traffic report, because I only went 60 miles round trip, on Saturday morning. That traffic was light, as expected. But...
I live in Alexandria, VA where the real estate crunch has not really hit. Prices are stable, sales are slow but occurring. I went to Manassas, VA via Woodbridge, VA (40 miles SW of Washington, DC, out from the city). Talk about your ghost town!!! It seemed that every other house was for sale, all with price reduced. I had not been this far out, but it's a bloody disater out there!!
In addition, the "Bug Out" (Volkswagen show for aircooled cars) was much smaller than usual. It is obviously a shrinking hobby but this year it fell off a cliff. Way less disposable income, I think.
(sorry for all the exclamation points, but they were NEEDED)
Posted by: apikoros | May 26, 2008 10:46:08 PM
A Memorial Day weekend on a large reservoir straddling the KY/TN border was wonderful--due to the lack of traffic on the water. While there were people out, many of the rental houseboats that are used for heavy partying were still on the docks unrented. Many of the privately owned houseboats were still in their slips. The camping sites were not as raucous, as I suspected the younger party crowd couldn't afford the trip, but the more family oriented camper could...
This is the second get away where we've noticed the diminished crowd. Spring break in Destin, FL was equally delightful as there were no waits to get into restaurants that last summer commanded at least an hour wait.
Coincidental or not, these are indicators that make my family vacations much more enjoyable--so long as the restaurants can stay in business.
Posted by: JasRas | May 26, 2008 10:51:41 PM
We drove from Texas to Colorado on Friday and Saturday and the traffic was lighter than at any other time in the last three years. I t will be very interesting to see the gas/travel numbers for the weekend. There must be a 20-30% drop off from last year.
Posted by: Bob Gaddy | May 26, 2008 10:53:28 PM
From Seattle area, East-side near Duvall:
We went house-hunting. We have a pre-approval loan waiting just in case, but we are mostly just site-seeing.
There are houses for sale _everywhere_. We went down one development and there was literally a for sale sign every other house. We no longer really have to look in papers or the internets for houses. We find a neighborhood that looks like it is in our price range, and then we cruise. There are just so many.
Our take: Houses are still way too expensive. Someone was selling a house that had half a deck built outside and a pail of nails filled with rain, as if the builders just stopped suddenly (we suspect a house flippin' gone bad). The entire east side of the lawn had been dug up to make a trench. The trench had been there a long time. There were weeds growing in it a foot tall. Just a big ole trench. No lawn care. A nightmare.
They were wanting 400k, and this was for a 4 bed, 3 ba in bad condition that was a 30 minute commute to civilization.
Riiiiiiiiight. Sellers haven't figured it out _yet_. This house in this condition should be lower 300k at best, and that would be with an agreement to fill in the (#@# trench in the front yard ..
Posted by: Joe | May 26, 2008 11:05:36 PM
It has become obvious even to my friends who are financially-ignorant that there is a change going on in the economy. Increased price on mixed drinks, empty bars/lounges, and crowded sidewalks.
IMO it started to deteriorate markedly in the last month (while markets strangely were rising).
-Reporting from Detroit suburbs
Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | May 26, 2008 11:06:13 PM
I don't understand liberals like you guys. When everyone is driving, you complain that we don't do enough to conserve.
Actual economic reasons come around for people to conserve, and you complain that people aren't driving enough.
~~~
BR: This comment gets my nomination for the dumbest one of the weekend.
The post is about anecdotal evidence of an economic slowdown -- not conservation, energy policy or politics.
No soup for you -- come back one year.
Posted by: Roman | May 26, 2008 11:09:25 PM
We went to the North Dallas Parade of Homes on Saturday. Number of people was way down. Wife commented that the houses were much more practical and didn't try to scream ostentatious wealth.
Went furniture shopping and was surprised how many people there were. While not packed it was very busy. Asked about delivery on a recliner and she looked up in the computer and said it showed an order of 18 arriving in June and 15 of them were already sold.
Shopping at Home Depot, they had the most people in orange smocks that I have ever seen; even the wife noticed. Too bad they were standing around talking to each other. Store was not faced very well. Went to Lowes also and both HD & Lowes were busy but down slightly from prior years. 3 to 4 deep in each checkout line.
Posted by: crazy uncle | May 26, 2008 11:13:57 PM
I stayed in the city for the holiday weekend, and it was a mixed bag.
Crazy as usual in the touristy parts of midtown -- you can barely hear English spoken near Columbus Circle, it is all French, German, Italian, etc.
The subways were packed, but the passengers were tourists, they were having too much fun to be NY'ers.
Once I got to Brooklyn, where I was headed to a Memorial Day picnic, the crowds thinned way out and things got quiet, calm and happy.
If only it were always like this. ;-0
Posted by: Graffiti Grammarian | May 26, 2008 11:14:59 PM
Just got back from Disney Land. Monday was pretty busy- but not like it should have been. Friday, Saturday and Sunday was lite. LAX was really really lite.
Posted by: johnnyvee | May 26, 2008 11:20:46 PM
Roman, who's "complaining"? These are observations.
And, Joe, I agree houses are still overpriced.
Posted by: wunsacon | May 26, 2008 11:29:22 PM
From the Central Coast of Ca. We live in a resort community near the only beach accessable to RVs in Ca. (Oceano Beach) It is usually packed with huge RVs and assorted ATVs. This year the camp ground we walked through was mostly tents. Usually it is 90% RVs.
Posted by: rthomas | May 26, 2008 11:34:35 PM
>Actual economic reasons come around for people to conserve, and you complain that people aren't driving enough.
The complaining is all in your head, because it isn't in any of the posts here. BR is just asking if anyone has support for his indicator, and as far as I can tell, everyone is thrilled to be out of the usual crowds. I'm personally thrilled that I can see again while driving without some farm-class/working vehicle/rollover-waiting-to-happen ahead of me that thinks 75 is a safe speed.
And you are agreeing with the liberals, I see, that increasing the economic cost of something does change behavior... i.e. the taxes should have been higher on gas long ago to force conservation. But thanks for making that point; it's a good one.
Posted by: Darkness | May 26, 2008 11:41:59 PM
I enjoy your blog. I don't get to read it except on weekends as it's blocked at work.
Regarding traffic. I'm in Davis CA, a suburb of Sacramento. Overall, traffic has been noticably down - in the Sac Metro area - for a few months now.
However, in Davis which is home to one of the UC system campuses, life is wonderful. The taxpayer financed scam that is higher education is still pumping millions into Davis. The town is crowded at night, with resturants full of either wealthy students or students spending their student loan money (not sure which). And, housing isn't doing as badly as the rest of Sac Metro area. As long as the insiders can keep running their taxpayer funded scams the party will keep rolling, doesn't matter if it's Davis or some of Ben's buds.
Posted by: John | May 26, 2008 11:42:33 PM
Stayed local for the weekend, I typically do, hate the traffic getting out of OC on long weekends. I went to Macys for the dress shirts on sale, mall was wide open, no one in the mens area at all. Followed by the quick service fish restaurant, 3 groups when it is normally full. The $1 movie theater was packed though, there were a lot of families and "Horton hears a Who" was playing.
I'm not too surprised at the traffic levels though, it has been thinning out all year. I'm sure the real estate industry blowing up has really hurt.
Posted by: Westparker | May 26, 2008 11:51:08 PM
I-95 tween Raleigh and DC Sat AM and Monday PM was either moderate or hell depending on the wrecks - there several major delays that I was lucky enough to avoid.
Mt Vernon was packed.
The Raleigh/Chapel Hill/Cary/Durham/RTP area has had a slight reduction in home sales based on paper (not sure about prices retraction), but from visual inspection it is not slowing down. Homes, condos, new McDonalds, etc being constructed all over.
Posted by: gregh | May 27, 2008 12:11:30 AM
I wonder what the travel deals will be come September if said industry has a LOUSY summer? I just saw a cruise ad on TV here in Chicago saying "it's cheaper than a hotel". I think there's more to come. Could be a long summer for Larry Kudlow & George Bush.....
Posted by: Chief Tomahawk | May 27, 2008 12:29:48 AM
