Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2008

Monday, June 23, 2008 | 02:30 PM

House_decline

Huge run down of all things Housing via Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. It is a comprehensive look at housing markets, demographic drivers, homeownership, rental housing and housing "challenges."

The slump is "shaping up to be the worst in a generation" still hasn't run its full course, according to JCHS.

Marketwatch goes a step further, and ties the shaky job market to the

-Last year marked an acceleration of home-sale declines, propelled by falling home prices and the credit crunch. The pain in the housing market spread to the rest of the economy by the beginning of this year, as the drop in home building, turmoil in the credit and stock markets and the effect of falling home prices on borrowing and consumer spending contributed to the slowdown.

-Real home equity (adjusted for inflation) fell 6.5% to $9.6 trillion in 2007. And home-price declines as well as a slowdown in home-equity withdrawals conspired to trim one-half of a percentage point from real consumer spending and more than one-third of a percentage point from total economic growth.

-During 2003 to 2005, housing prices surged so far ahead of incomes that by 2006, the number of households (both renters and owners) paying more than half their income on housing rose to 17.7 million, or 15.8% of all households. Today, lenders are requiring larger down payments and higher credit scores, squeezing many would-be buyers out of owning a home -- even though prices have fallen.

-More proof of the changing lending landscape: Subprime loans fell to 3.1% of originations in the fourth quarter of 2007, from 20% in 2005 and 2006. Interest-only and payment-option loans fell to 10.7% of originations in 2007, from 19.3% in 2006.

There is a tonne of good stuff in all of the reports, and you can easily spend hours sifting through the charts, graphs and tables . . .


Glut_house

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Hat tip Real Time Economics

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Sources:
The State of the Nation's Housing 2008
(PDF)
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2008/son2008.pdf

Harvard’s Grim Housing Report
Real Time Economics, June 23, 2008, 10:59 am
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/06/23/harvards-grim-housing-report/

Shaky job market threatens housing recovery   
Amy Hoak
MarketWatch, June 23, 2008
http://tinyurl.com/6ezqko

Monday, June 23, 2008 | 02:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

I would hesitate to call a bottom soon... Why? Even though the year over year numbers are abysmal, one piece of data stood out to me, as pointed out by Diana Olick's Realty Check Blog on CNBC: Price increases since 2000....
Miami: +109%
LA: +107%
etc. etc.

While she and Chip Case (of Case-Shiller fame) argue this as a plus side to the housing market, I look on the flip side: The housing market can drop A LOT more before it would be considered UNDER-VALUED. Right now, all we can really say that real estate is slightly less over valued than a year ot two ago. Just my two cents...

Posted by: HCF | Jun 23, 2008 3:07:37 PM

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