Uh-Oh: Dangerous Black Swan Chart Formation!
This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Taleb's Book The Black Swan. Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . .
Click for full version of the exponentially regressed, parabolic, dreaded Black Swan:
via Elite Trader
Monday, June 02, 2008 | 08:42 PM | Permalink
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Comments
Yes, its a joke
Posted by: Barry Ritholtz | Jun 2, 2008 8:45:32 PM
this is funny, very very funny!
Posted by: trail | Jun 2, 2008 8:47:51 PM
Black swan? Ha! If you had been around charts and technical analysis as long as I have, you would recognize that as a speckled turkey. It has only appeared 7 times in the last 97 years of market history. Always followed by a market correction of at least 32%, along with cranberry sauce and a long weekend.
Posted by: MLM | Jun 2, 2008 8:50:36 PM
Love your technical analysis. I think the only thing not hitting this market right now is swan poop.
Posted by: Eric | Jun 2, 2008 8:51:31 PM
When people ask who killed the golden goose, I'll point them to Fusion IQ.
Posted by: Douglas Watts | Jun 2, 2008 8:59:12 PM
Holy Quack!
Posted by: RenoDino | Jun 2, 2008 8:59:33 PM
Is this a market signal to duck?
Or a market signal to ducks?
Only your professional investment advisor knows for sure.
Posted by: Douglas Watts | Jun 2, 2008 9:02:48 PM
I believe that is the even more frightening "Black Duck"!
Posted by: Stav | Jun 2, 2008 9:04:12 PM
Funny Barry IMO that you post a "joke" chart which may actually be the harbinger of things to come, especially given your pessimistic view of things.
See Buffett's "Hair Trigger" quote under the first chart on my list at SCC.
We live in precarious times IMO.
Cheers,
Peter
Posted by: PeterR | Jun 2, 2008 9:07:07 PM
I think the 'inverted cock and ball pattern' is a better technical indicator.
Posted by: cap | Jun 2, 2008 9:23:53 PM
quack. you fooled me.
Posted by: Colin | Jun 2, 2008 9:24:12 PM
Ron U!
For a minute, I thought the payday was here..
Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | Jun 2, 2008 9:28:04 PM
Too bad today isn't April 1st - it would be a classic.
Posted by: bsneath | Jun 2, 2008 9:31:33 PM
AWESOME. Best post ever.
Posted by: Andrew G | Jun 2, 2008 9:33:35 PM
Ahem... It'd be nice if you actually posted a reference to the original source:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=128320
You aren't claiming this as your own now are you :)
Posted by: Dr Evil | Jun 2, 2008 9:36:03 PM
I just spit tea all over my screen LOL!
Posted by: Kevin | Jun 2, 2008 9:39:51 PM
Well....
While you may be joking around, an Elliot Wave Technician will tell you that what you're observing is actually a very ominous pattern.
The five wave move down that completed in March may have only been an initial first wave down....we've recently completed the wave 2 last week....and now we're descending in what may be a wave 3....
If we're in the beginning of Wave 3 down....then hide the swans and every other animal, man, woman and child you can find...because it means there's some bad news coming.....
-AT
Posted by: Andy Tabbo | Jun 2, 2008 9:42:17 PM
Hi Barry,
Glad you like my chart. How about proper attribution?
~~~
BR: Yeah, it came via email without attribution -- I'll fix above
Posted by: blackchip | Jun 2, 2008 9:42:40 PM
Barry, could you sprinkle some grains at the 126 level, so to encourage a duck down.
Also, I wish you didn't say it was a joke..If markets were to crash tomorrow, it wouldn't have surprised me that, the "formation" made it to the TA books, albeit in the anecdotes section and find its place in the history as one of the greatest market calls, however exotic.
Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | Jun 2, 2008 9:43:09 PM
Thanks blackchip, that is a funny posting... I am sure the credit was an oversight, Barry always references stuff he uses. (yes, he is paying me $10 per shill activity.)
Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | Jun 2, 2008 9:47:45 PM
My compliments to whoever created the chart. It was laugh-out-loud funny. Glad my mouth wasn't full.
Posted by: Mike in NOLA | Jun 2, 2008 9:58:39 PM
Scary. Very scary... What would Kunstler say???
Posted by: Billy G | Jun 2, 2008 10:08:01 PM
You Mock! Taleb.........shame........funny.....but shame nevertheless!!.....:)
Posted by: Antoine | Jun 2, 2008 10:15:44 PM
Only the terminally pessimistic can look at a chart of "The Goose that Layed the Golden Egg" and see a "Black Swan".....of course, in Chartrology there are no birds, and it is plain to see in this chart that Taurus is rising from Scorpio's moon...
Posted by: Winston Munn | Jun 2, 2008 10:19:45 PM
Hilarious!!! ...in so many ways. That is good medicine. I feel 5 years younger.
Thanks!
Posted by: Michael Davis | Jun 2, 2008 10:53:49 PM
