The Bear is Back, Part II
Yesterday's Bear is Back table was re-envisioned and reformatted as a chart by Jake:
via Jake
I don't really buy breaking the 2000 Crash into 2 pieces, but that's how it was done in the table . . .
Sunday, July 06, 2008 | 10:30 AM | Permalink
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I here the bull saying that the bear market is almost over. I think it is going to be one of the longer bears. Eli broad says it is the worst since WWII
Posted by: Theinvestingspeculator | Jul 6, 2008 11:09:20 AM
Pardon my intellectual laziness, but I'm too busy today to look hard. How was the beginning of the bear market determines in the table that was published?
~~~
<>BR: We're too intellectually lazy to look that up . . .
Posted by: Mike in NoLA | Jul 6, 2008 12:16:52 PM
I don't buy the before and after distinction either. Until you can quantify the beginning and the end of denial, migration, and panic stages, who is to really know if/which bubble we are busy correcting right now? If the stock market does any macro discounting at all, and I believe it does, this has to be taken into account. Counting day is like hoping it won't rain on your barbeque.
Posted by: Dave | Jul 6, 2008 12:29:21 PM
"I don't really buy breaking the 2000 Crash..."
What "2000 crash" ?
* DJIA CLOSE JAN 03RD, 2000: 11,357.51
* DJIA CLOSE JAN 14TH, 2000: 11,722.98
* DJIA CLOSE DEC 29TH, 2000: 10,786.85
~~~
BR: I'm not sure if you are joking . . .
Posted by: VJ | Jul 6, 2008 1:09:01 PM
YES THERE WAS NO 2000 CRASH. PLEASE REFER TO MINITRU DIRECTIVE 03-200/C AND UPDATE YOUR FREEDOM TERMINALS.
Posted by: Troy | Jul 6, 2008 3:02:52 PM
Scary... it always takes longer to recover from a bear than it takes for it to form.
Posted by: VA | Jul 6, 2008 3:20:07 PM
it always takes longer to recover from a bear than it takes for it to form
Actually I think the chart is just confusing, with the 2nd bar being the total length of the bear market.
Posted by: Troy | Jul 6, 2008 4:06:11 PM
When is the bear over? Do you have to wait for a new high or is it over when the market starts back up from the lows?
Posted by: Jay | Jul 6, 2008 9:47:02 PM
This guy is surprisingly innumerate, assuming that the average is what we will automatically get:
VINCE FARRELL WRITES
More detail on bear markets from this past weekend's Barron's. Quoting Bespoke Investment Group, Barron's agrees with our note last week that the average bear market sees a decline of about 30%. Further, when the market had declined the required 20% to be declared a bear, the downturn was, on average, 74% complete in terms of length. If that is so, we have 118 days to run and another 10% on the downside.
Posted by: Scott | Jul 7, 2008 9:51:07 AM
