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David Rosenberg: The Frugal Future

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Thoughts on the future of the economy, with David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch North American economist

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Final Thoughts: The U.S. Economy
David Rosenberg, of Merrill Lynch, discusses his outlook on the economy and the housing market

Where the Markets are Headed
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Discussing the economy and stocks, with Matt Zeman, LaSalle Futures Group; David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch; CNBC's Rick Santelli & Steve Liesman

Thursday, August 07, 2008 | 03:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0)
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Comments

It will be good for people to have to endure some frugality. The population has had it too easy for too long. Or at least putting their efforts into unproductive enterprize. They have become fat, lazy and out of touch. That is how civilizations collapse.

Posted by: Peter | Aug 7, 2008 5:09:22 AM

Hi everybody, I didn't say I would be completely gone. I really hated missing that Larry Kudlow thread. Anyway, I think frugality will mark America's future by necessity, even if Kudlow hates the idea of Jimmy Carter-type austerity visions for America. Besides energy prices that will rebound and go up and up, the ongoing financial and housing crises, the fiscal and trade imbalances to which we have not owned up, our huge debts to overseas creditors, and a dollar that is overvalued even with the extent to which it has already diminished, I don't see a lot of wiggle room in a lot of American pocket books over the long term. I think we have scratched only the surface of a very long (but hopefully not catastrophic) recession since Americans haven't really stopped spending. Rosenberg may be unique among many CNBC guests for this realistic perspective, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that there are a lot of economic factors that must be reckoned with for genuine good times to prevail in America again.

Posted by: CNBC Sucks | Aug 7, 2008 6:51:46 AM

In the final video the CNBC regulars claim they don't understand Rick Santelli's claim that the Fed has swooped in to bail out the equity market every time a decline has started. And then that the yield curve reflects that.

Too bad, that's what's happened, and can't continue to happen.

Posted by: VennData | Aug 7, 2008 7:34:46 AM

Can anyone provide a link to David Rosenberg's February 2006 Merrill Lynch research report "Reassessing Hard Landing Risks"? The report is no longer avaiable from Merrill's website.

Posted by: w_t_f | Aug 7, 2008 8:14:14 AM

I think Santelli's bond market is myopically looking at interest rates remaining low on the front end, but cannot see how having the consumer in a "savings mode," effects consumption in the long-run. If I remember my college 101 economics class correctly this type of behavior was what created the Keynesian downward spiral of the last depression.

Posted by: JustinTheSkeptic | Aug 7, 2008 8:15:22 AM

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2006/02/merrill-lynchs-rosenberg-five-macro.html

Posted by: Jeff Davis | Aug 7, 2008 9:45:59 AM

Anyone else see the irony that the Chief Economist of Merrill Lynch was accurately predicting the crappy times that were coming?

Why does ML even have chief economists if they don't even bother to pay attention themselves.

It's sort of amusing and sad for ML stockholders. If you had been getting Rosenberg's reports and believed them, you would have beens shorting ML stock.

- AT

Posted by: Andy Tabbo | Aug 7, 2008 10:05:48 AM

Sadly that is what passes for balanced commentary on CNBC. This guy is a pollyanna, but because he says a few negative things about the US economy, he is portrayed as a bear. Its laughable.

Posted by: Anon | Aug 7, 2008 11:36:40 AM

looks like IBM's employees will be a lot more frugal 10% ouch...

http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=209903898&cid=NL_eet

Posted by: GB | Aug 7, 2008 6:06:48 PM