Incredible Statistic: Mutual Fund Performance
Wow:
"Out of almost 2,100 diversified retail U.S. stock mutual funds that are open to new investors, just 17 have positive returns for both the past 12 months and year-to-date, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc."
That's amazing.
>
Source:
Up and away: Eaton Vance's Tooke is that rare stock-fund manager still in the plus column
Jonathan Burton
MarketWatch, 5:22 p.m. EDT Aug. 27, 2008
http://preview.tinyurl.com/17of2100
Thursday, August 28, 2008 | 03:00 PM | Permalink
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Comments
As Jeff Saut says, this is a trader's mkt. Investors (like me) are having a tough time of it this yr. Even Heebner (CGM) is down so far YTD for Focus fund, I believe. Good year for a good FoF, commodities, and cash... We may see some improvement up to Nov. elections, but I'm in the J. Grantham camp in that I don't expect improvement until 2010. So goes housing, so goes the nation... Good luck to all. ps: CPI & Q2 GDP are obviously fudged. Need accurate metrics.
Posted by: fudged_numbers | Aug 28, 2008 3:12:21 PM
well, maybe the $10 trillion yen stimulus pkg just hitting the wires and soon to be unveiled will help. i've long thot that nobody can print like the Japanese.
Posted by: karen | Aug 28, 2008 3:21:48 PM
Oh! wait until the baby-boomers hear this next month!
Posted by: Concerned Citizen | Aug 28, 2008 3:26:08 PM
MAKE NO MISTAKE, I AM A BEAR,(because logic makes it so), AND THIS LITTLE JAUNT UP IS THE BEGINNING OF A BIG JAUNT DOWN!
Posted by: Concerned Citizen | Aug 28, 2008 3:29:17 PM
Yeah, but they said it was going to be a stock picker's market twelve months ago, didn't they? And twelve months before that, and before that... and over the last twelve month's I'd wager that at least once a month - nay - once a week, somebody said this is a stock picker's market. But it never, ever is.
Posted by: VennData | Aug 28, 2008 3:48:10 PM
Concerned Citizen,
I agree. I am selling into strength as I speak. I think when the traders get back from the Holidays it could get ugly. I am thinking we are entering a period where a person can make money by not losing money. I may be wrong; but, I can not stomach the risk that I see not only for the remainder of this year, but into next year as well.
Barry,
This Post makes me feel better. I am strictly in the capital preservation mode; so, it looks like I am doing a lot better than most of MF Managers at the moment and I'm sleeping like a baby.
BTW, if you still have that bridge, I believe you could sell that sucker this afternoon. Let me know how much you get for it. :)
Posted by: BG | Aug 28, 2008 3:52:07 PM
More happy talk on CNBC.
Maria just had a technician on - talking up a rally to 1360 because "there is no significant resistance until the 200DMA".
Apart from the 1300 level we are bumping up against right now, you mean? Churning under resistance is usually Bearish...
She also said that "consumer discretionary" was going to be the leading sector. If this forecast turns out to be correct I will self-immolate in the middle of Times Square.
Posted by: leftback | Aug 28, 2008 3:55:56 PM
The amazing part is that anyone still invests in mutual funds, especially actively managed ones.
It pisses me off that I have no choice to do so with my 401k.. although most of that is in a money market fund right now.
Posted by: C. Fischer | Aug 28, 2008 3:56:30 PM
Well, drink a cold one with me.
I am OUT.
Posted by: BG | Aug 28, 2008 4:02:53 PM
Any theories on who the buyers are on what might be the lowest volume day of the year so far?
Today was quite a feat, i will admit... getting the spx to close over 1300 and the dow over 11700.
Posted by: karen | Aug 28, 2008 4:11:20 PM
Damn,
(Looking at a DOW daily chart)
was the DOW pinned high all day long or is it
just my imagination.
Of course all major indexes trended up for
the day and ended at their high.
Pakistani stock market anyone????
Posted by: MarkTX | Aug 28, 2008 4:14:08 PM
In the words of that great trader, Lord Keynes,
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Posted by: constantnormal | Aug 28, 2008 4:14:59 PM
@Karen:
Any theories on who the buyers are on what might be the lowest volume day of the year so far?
It was a combination of Pakistani mutual fund managers and banks buying banks.
I know this isn't "Housing Day" at TBP
but anyway - this is evidence that not only is the boogeyman not going away, now he's coming to the rich people's houses !!
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/08/28/prime-foreclosure-starts-surge-past-subprime-in-july/
Posted by: leftback | Aug 28, 2008 4:20:26 PM
The 401K mutual fund setup is really frustrating. Those managers have the easiest jobs going. To me the most important part of managing money is market timing and non of them do it. That leads the hardest parts of investing to client; market timing. The ideal mutual fund is one that allows that manager to be unlimted short or long. Mutual fund managers, stock analysts, etc. there all worthless.
Does anyone know how much money you need to open an account with Dougie Kass? I emailed his company through the website a couple of times but no response. Come to think of it I emailed Barry's company about a new account and got no response.
So I can't get in with Ritholtz or Kass and I'm left with these worthless mutual fund managers. Grrrr
Posted by: Steve Dallas | Aug 28, 2008 4:23:37 PM
Just goes to show how totally worthless the opinions of “long-only” money managers are in a bear market.
Posted by: DL | Aug 28, 2008 4:24:12 PM
In the words of that great trader, Lord Keynes,
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Posted by: constantnormal | Aug 28, 2008 4:14:59 PM
The big problem right now is that this holds true whether you are in the market or
out of the market!!!
They can and will get you one way or another.
Posted by: MarkTX | Aug 28, 2008 4:24:21 PM
That's hilarious. Actively managed mutual funds are a joke. I agree with the poster who complained about being forced to put 401k money into funds managed by these schmucks. Just give me index tracking ETFs! At least when they go down I'm not paying 1.5% for some loser to shuffle stuff around.
Posted by: Renting in Mass | Aug 28, 2008 4:29:29 PM
I bet there are 2100 nice yachts out there.
You would think that you could do pretty well just by being broadly invested in an index or sector MINUS the companies that everyone in the world with a brain knows are
useless.
If you eliminated those with a broken business model (LEH), about to be bankrupt (WaMu), or those that were run by blatant crooks (CFC) or idiots (FNM) and those with an outmoded product (PALM), you could easily avoid some of the worst losses. By eliminating 10-20 of the S and P 500 you could probably do well every year.
Posted by: leftback | Aug 28, 2008 4:49:40 PM
Renting in Mass @ 4:29:29 PM
I suspect that most 401K managers are selected on the basis of who provides the biggest kickbacks to the host company.
Posted by: DL | Aug 28, 2008 4:50:37 PM
Steve Dallas @ 4:23:37 PM
“Does anyone know how much money you need to open an account with Dougie Kass?”
I suspect it’s like buying a yacht. If you have to ask how much, you can’t afford it.
Posted by: DL | Aug 28, 2008 5:12:36 PM
leftback, hahaha on your theories (although you might be on to something with your banks buying banks.) and thanks for the housingwire link; that certainly explains why SRS was down today :)
I, too, am sorry for anyone with a 401K mutual fund set-up; another government directed ponzi stock market scheme, imo. (somehow FNM and FRE just popped into my head.) One day you will be able to roll whatever is left into a self-directed IRA.
Posted by: karen | Aug 28, 2008 5:17:08 PM
Who was buying today?
Hmmm....
People who dont know any better?
And as for it being a "feat" that the Dow closed over 11700 and the SPX over 1300... doesnt look like much of a feat at all. I'd say from the tape we've seen for the past three sessions, the people smart enough to short arent doing so for a good reason: You dont short a dull market... Plus, the senior traders at the big houses, well, we know where they are, hamptons jokes aside. The rest of us traders who dont fight the tape are just biding our time, waiting for the moment to present itself. The moment looks like its here, as both SPX and DJIA are being hit square in the face with a double whammy: resistance @ 50 day MA + resistance at the dominant trendline... Throw in the QQQQ, which was leading and now has totally stalled, and I think we've got the makings for a wonderful September short. Just check the falling volume on the recent "rally off the bottom", some of it seasonal yes, but the charts dont lie. Its almost beautiful in its architecture, the short set up we have here, if you're any shred of a technician.
Posted by: The Sturgeon | Aug 28, 2008 5:43:52 PM
The Federal employees "401k" is the TSP. You have 5 funds to pick from in it, ranging from pure bond fund to the typical common, small cap (so to speak), to international (which actually tracks the S&P better than the common stock one and doesn't track international markets!!!) Of course this is the savings program for each federal employee so we're talking serious money. A couple of months ago, they shoved a new mandate down our throats that says you can only move your money twice a month! Another method of trying to control the volatility and running for the doors.
Posted by: Rob P. | Aug 28, 2008 5:50:10 PM
DL @ Aug 28, 2008 4:50:37 PM
"I suspect it’s like buying a yacht. If you have to ask how much, you can’t afford it."
I hear. Ya can't knock a brother for trying.
Time to go home cook up some of those garden tomatos with garlic and open a nice bottle of wine or two. The man has got enough of me today.
Posted by: Steve Dallas | Aug 28, 2008 5:59:41 PM
From every comment I read on this site and others, I think it might be time to get out of the US stock market forever. (by the way, we led the world into this dowmturn)
Posted by: winslow | Aug 28, 2008 6:33:35 PM
