Quell the Commentary!
>
If only no one had mentioned Fannie or Freddie over the weekend . . .
>
After a Yahoo Tech Ticker appearance earlier this month (Battle Over the Bottom in Financials) I received one of my all time favorite pieces of email.
It was so damned good I simply had to pass it along:
From: DG
Address: NJ
Email: noone@anywhere.com
Tue 8/12/2008 4:01 PM
Investor Type: Individual
Investor Assets: Less than $1 Million
Interested in: FusionIQ Investor serviceHeard about at: Yahoo.
Additional comments:
Dear Barry Ritholtz
I just heard your commentary on Yahoo's Tech Ticker. It's this type of commentary that creates the psychological reaction that is the \"real\" cause and effect of these troubling times and rapid swings in the market. Granted, there are fundamental difficulties in the market, but perhaps you should just report on the known facts and not on pure speculation that you are probably using to profit from.
I'm just a concerned individual investor, who just like the countless millions of other investors, see their investments get zapped every time an analyst makes a comment unfounded by actual facts.
Quell the commentary!
>
Before dissecting the content, a few errata worth noting: The emailer was anonymous (as cowards often are). I love the utter refusal to acknowledge reality, and the blame shifting -- classic! It may as well have been Phil "Mental Recession" Gramm himself.
Now let's move onto this bit of ignorant, foolish, BenSteinery:
1) The Yahoo chat was a mostly factual discussion of Financials, and how 3 different analysts saw them; (Of course, anything discussing a bad sector is negative and should therefore be ignored!)
2) What is opinion and what is fact is clearly defined (assuming you are even half intelligent);
3) The opinion portion is the same old song and dance I have been discussing for the the better part of 3 years -- and its why we have avoided owning the Financials for so long; Why should this old perspective be having an impact now -- but not in 2005/06, when it was virtually ignored?
4) I move markets? I don't think so;
5) Had our emailer done their homework, perhaps they might not be so buried in financials, banks and brokers. If they weren't blind speculators throwing darts, that might not be getting slaughtered.
6) Seeing commentary as the problem, as opposed to the fundamental issues as what's wrong, is a form of denial. Its the same intellectual failure as refusing to admit there is a recession.
7) All of the above is OK, as it helps a prime function of the market: It is the markets' job to reallocate money from the ignorant to the intelligent, from the lazy to the hard working and studious; from the naive to the educated, and from the speculator to the investor.
Quell the Commentary? Never!
>
Previously:
The Battle Over the Bottom in Financials (August 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/the-battle-over.html
Source:
Street Fight: Analysts Battle Over the Bottom in Financials
Henry Blodget
Yahoo, August 12, 2008
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/47121/Street-Fight-Analysts-Battle-Over-the-Bottom-in-Financials
Tuesday, August 19, 2008 | 07:30 PM | Permalink
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Comments
methinks that could have been Krudlow ;-)
Posted by: sysin3 | Aug 19, 2008 7:52:54 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a754hMpneMR8&refer=home
SEC May Propose New Short-Sale Rules Within `Weeks,' Cox Says...
Sounds like we have a back-drop for the entire market coming ahead of of the FRE/FNM announcement in a few weeks! May be investors interested in squeezing the shorts should buy more FRE/FNM/Financials and entire market
Posted by: Nihilism | Aug 19, 2008 8:04:13 PM
It's almost hard to blame them....especially when banks are still sending out emails like this.
"As a ShareBuilder Customer, you're already accustomed to simple and affordable ways to invest. What if getting a mortgage worked the same way? Meet the Orange Mortgage. With no surprises and an easy application process, the Orange Mortgage is a great way to make a house your home:
* Rates as low as 5.50% (5.665% APR) for the first five-year fixed rate period for loans up to $500,000. The rate for the Orange Mortgage adjusts annually after that.
* Low closing costs, no bank fees and no points
* Options that match most homeowners' needs
* You can save thousands in interest and pay down more of your principal"
I received this in today's junk box.
Banks are still peddling ARMs to suckers.
Unfreakingbelievable.
Posted by: Chris | Aug 19, 2008 8:17:59 PM
> 4) I move markets? I don't think so;
Au contraire! BR, you are solely responsible for the implosion of FNM/FRE, along with Russia's invasion of Georgia, global warming, oil going to $145, and Nastia Luikin getting screwed out of the gold medal on the uneven bars. I think if we go back and watch the tape, you may also be the second shooter on the grassy knoll...
Keep up the good work! =)
HCF
Posted by: HCF | Aug 19, 2008 8:18:45 PM
PS
Sharebuilder is ING Direct.
Posted by: Chris | Aug 19, 2008 8:19:24 PM
Barry, if that goddamned gorilla in the living room hears YOU talking about him, he'll kick MY ass.
We don't acknowledge the gorilla 'round here.
There is no gorilla.
STFU.
- anonymous
Posted by: Marcus Aurelius | Aug 19, 2008 8:22:09 PM
"and from the speculator to the investor."
With all due respect, Barry, I believe you have misused the word 'speculator'. I would suggest saying "from the gambler to the investor." There does indeed exist a segment of market participants that are consistently successful speculators.
Posted by: RJ | Aug 19, 2008 8:25:19 PM
I'll bet if you don't talk about the market, AND you don't watch the market, then it will never go down. No peeking! What, you don't trust me?
Posted by: Namazu | Aug 19, 2008 8:35:34 PM
Does he squawk when a commentator says something he perceives as dumb and his stocks go up?
Posted by: polizeros | Aug 19, 2008 8:37:03 PM
Barry: Enough with the technically insolvent, mark to market and foreclosures. Give me new information. Tell me about FNM and FRE cash flow, profitability of new business, and when or if they will actually run out of cash. The fact that FRE paid 117 BP over Treasuries is meaningless; it’s still very cheap financing. And a 6.5% to 7% mortgage rate is historically very good. And finally, tell me what’s on Bill Miller’s mind.
Posted by: Click Broker | Aug 19, 2008 8:39:14 PM
Barry,
Don't be so upset. Without people like your emailer, who would be there to donate their money to the forces of good?
John
Posted by: John B. | Aug 19, 2008 8:41:40 PM
I'm impressed. I had no idea Thain knew how to use e-mail.
Posted by: JayDawg | Aug 19, 2008 8:44:54 PM
I had no idea McCain knew how to use email but I digress -
Barry - you should be flattered that this emailer thinks that you move markets. Now that's real influence!
Posted by: Jeff M. | Aug 19, 2008 9:06:57 PM
Cramer also discussed today the weekend mention of Fannie/Freddie. The gist was eerily similar to his self-serving, deceptive rant last year, i.e. the government is ruining the market. Am I the only one who can see that Cramer is creating a hedge for himself? "Market is up? Great, I called it! Market is down? Stupid Fed. They know nothing!!! They know nothing!!!!" In a way, Cramer never left the hedge industry. Only now he hedges predictions and not stocks.
Posted by: Eric | Aug 19, 2008 9:09:05 PM
@Eric: You hit the nail on the head. When Cramer sees his forecasts go south, he quickly blames, the Fed, the SEC, the weather, anything "beyond his control" (e.g. "if only the SEC had enforced the uptick rule, the financials would have been fine and we wouldn't be re-testing the July 15th lows") that he can throw out there to take the heat off of him. It's pathetic.
Posted by: Jeff M. | Aug 19, 2008 9:15:57 PM
He's a conscript of the confidence game. Nothing wrong with these companies, it's just that we don't understand them I guess. Right!
Next time Raines should at least use his own e-mail and not anonymous.....
Posted by: Stuart | Aug 19, 2008 9:19:47 PM
Whatever happened to Michael Schumacher??
Posted by: bobbyside | Aug 19, 2008 9:21:12 PM
It always give me a chuckle when "real Americans" like this clown who wrote Barry don't like it when people actually act on their First Amendment Rights.
Like, for two hundred and thirty years all that Bill of Rights stuff was OK, but not since I bought a thousand shares of GE at my new Etrade account.
Posted by: Venndata | Aug 19, 2008 9:23:12 PM
you mean "Ciao MS"?
...think he's in Italy brushing up on his Italian
Posted by: Bob A | Aug 19, 2008 9:32:26 PM
Quelle commentary!
Posted by: Roger Bigod | Aug 19, 2008 9:52:35 PM
I wish financial news programs like CNBC would preface their contributors’ comments on the stock market with a YTD, 3-Yr and 5-Yr performance of the contributors’ personal portfolios. I know they sometimes display performance of the funds contributors’ manage for clients, but I’m more interested in the performance of a contributor's personal portfolio. Why would I want to listen to the investment advice of someone who has a lousy (or no) track record of investing their own money?
Posted by: Frank | Aug 19, 2008 9:55:19 PM
Posted by: RJ | Aug 19, 2008 8:25:19 PM
RJ,
see:
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/speculator
most words, see: Ripley's, have more than one definition.
It's like Nick choosing to assume, Question asking isn't that hard.
Though, with this: "I would suggest saying "from the gambler to the investor." "
Would you consider 403(b) accounts holders, for instance, 'gamblers'? To an earlier point of mine, there are droves of similiar account holders that believe/are repeatedly told that they are doing the wisest/safest thing possible and that "Options" & "Futures", that could, legitimately, hedge their exposures, even beyond those accounts, are for Gamblers.
Posted by: Mark E Hoffer | Aug 19, 2008 9:56:51 PM
That e-mail sounds like a Ben Stein editorial.
Posted by: GuinnessFan | Aug 19, 2008 10:03:10 PM
Jack Cafferty of CNN on Bush and McCain
He will leave office with the country $10 trillion in debt, fighting two wars, our international reputation in shambles, our government cloaked in secrecy and suspicion that his entire presidency has been a litany of broken laws and promises, our citizens' faith in our own country ripped to shreds. Yet Bush goes bumbling along, grinning and spewing moronic one-liners, as though nobody understands what a colossal failure he has been.
I fear to the depth of my being that John McCain is just like him.
Posted by: km4 | Aug 19, 2008 10:15:29 PM
Marcus: what gorilla? oh that one? they are telling me it is a baby monkey
Eric/Jeff: aren't successes always internal and failures always external?
Emailer: Quell buying stocks
Posted by: Mich(^IXIC1881) | Aug 19, 2008 10:18:16 PM
